International Journal of Biometeorology

, Volume 34, Issue 2, pp 87–89

Forecasting spore concentrations: A time series approach

  • Elaine Stephen
  • Adrian E. Raffery
  • Paul Dowding


Fungal basidiospores andCladosporium spores are the two most numerous spore types in the air of Dublin and its surroundings. They are known to have allergenic components, and the aim of the study described here is to develop a predictive model for these spores. A very simple model, which combines an estimated diurnal rhythm with a simple, one-parameter time series model, provided golld short-term forecasts. The one-step prediction error variance was reduced by 88% forCladosporium spores and by 98% for basidiospores.

Key words

ARMA model Basidiospores Cladosporium Ireland Transfer function model 


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Copyright information

© International Society of Biometeorology 1990

Authors and Affiliations

  • Elaine Stephen
    • 1
  • Adrian E. Raffery
    • 2
  • Paul Dowding
    • 3
  1. 1.EhningenFederal Republic of Germany
  2. 2.Department of Statistics, GN-22University of WashingtonSeattleUSA
  3. 3.Environmental Sciences UnitTrinity CollegeDublin 2Ireland

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