Climatic Change

, Volume 29, Issue 4, pp 409–428 | Cite as

Climate change scenarios: Comparisons of paleoreconstructions with recent temperature changes

  • M. V. Shabalova
  • G. P. Können
Article
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Revised:

Abstract

Paleoclimatic reconstructions for the Mid-Holocene, Eemian, Mid-Pliocene and the Last Glacial Maximum are used to test the paleoanalog hypothesis and develop a regional climate change scenario based on a linear scaling by one parameter - the mean Northern Hemispheric temperature change with respect to present, ΔTNH. The empirical verification of the paleoanalog hypothesis is extended to a cold epoch for zonal means and to regional distributions of temperature in warm epochs. The best agreement among the scaled paleoanomalies from different epochs is obtained if the seasonal temperature anomalies are scaled with ΔTNH of the corresponding season. Preferential areas are identified where the paleoanalog hypothesis works relatively well; these areas coincide with the areas of the most pronounced warming. It is shown that the geographical distributions of the winter temperature anomalies over land in the paleodata are similar to those in the 1980–1990 period. From the three warm epochs, a paleodata-based scenario is deduced for the spatial distribution of temperature in a future climate, on the scale of continents. The conditions under which scenarios based on paleodata can be applied are discussed.

Keywords

Temperature Anomaly Climate Change Scenario Winter Temperature Seasonal Temperature Glacial Maximum 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.
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Copyright information

© Kluwer Academic Publishers. Printed in the Netherlands 1995

Authors and Affiliations

  • M. V. Shabalova
    • 1
  • G. P. Können
    • 1
  1. 1.Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)the Netherlands

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