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Journal of Quantitative Criminology

, Volume 4, Issue 2, pp 173–186 | Cite as

Stochastic models for analyzing Criminal Careers

  • John B. Copas
  • Roger Tarling
Research Notes

Abstract

The recent National Research Counci! Panel on Research on Criminal Careers (Blumsteinet al., 1986) identified the following as one of its items for future research: “... changes in the model [for analyzing criminal careers] are needed to reflect the consequences of the considerable heterogeneity in the values of A.” This paper discusses the range of stochastic models available that take account of variations in A that occur during an individual offender's career, variations in A between different types of offenders, and both forms of variation simultaneously. Together these models are a flexible and powerful tool for studying criminal careers. For completeness, failure rate regression models are also briefly described.

Key words

criminal careers stochastic models failure rate regression survival models 

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Copyright information

© Plenum Publishing Corporation 1988

Authors and Affiliations

  • John B. Copas
    • 1
  • Roger Tarling
    • 2
  1. 1.Department of StatisticsBirmingham UniversityBirminghamEngland
  2. 2.Home Office Research and Planning UnitLondonEngland

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