The literature growth in pharmacokinetics and bioavailability between the years 1964 and 1980 is analyzed. During much of this period, the literature doubled approximately every 1.6 years. However, during the period 1978–1980, little or no growth was observed. During the period 1950–1967, the total chemical literature increased exponentially with a half-life of 8.28 years; between 1968 and 1980, the half-life was 12.4 years. Thus, the pharmacokinetic literature increased at a much more rapid pace than did the total chemical literature in general. The subject of growth is considered in a general context, particularly as influenced by psychological, sociological, political, and economic factors. It is concluded that while mathematical functions may adequately describe past literature trends, they have little if any utility in predicting future trends in specific research areas such as pharmacokinetics.
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Boxenbaum, H. Literature growth in pharmacokinetics. Journal of Pharmacokinetics and Biopharmaceutics 10, 335–348 (1982). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01059265
- literature growth
- logistic function