Einige absorptionstheoretische Überlegungen zum österreichischen Leistungsbilanzdefizit

Summary

The study explains the Austrian current account deficit in terms of a modified and disaggregated absorption approach. In small integrated countries absorption depends not an internal demand alone but on the difference of capacity utilisation at home and abroad. Disaggregation suggests that in years of increasing current account deficits households normally increase their net—saving while entrepreneus increase their net—indebtedness less than proportionally. It is the government which as a rule has high absorption during current account deficits. Since the government demands only few foreign goods, this correlation must be explained indirectly. Four mechanisms are suggested: First that budget deficits increase overall domestic capacity utilisation relative to that of the trade partners and so stimulate imports and restrain exports; secondly: The budget deficit may sustain full employment even if the economy has lost its international competitiveness; thirdly: An oversized public demand diverts capacities from the export industry, or fourthly: The foreign financing of budget deficits leads to a real transfer within a short time. A brief discussion of the Austrian situation attaches most weight to mechanisms one and two, a little less to point four.