Keywords
Economic Growth International Economic Private Information Industrial Organization Future MarketZusammenfassung
Die Arbeit besteht aus drei Teilen: Der erste enthält einige empirische Eigenschaften von Terminmärkten; der zweite gibt einen kurzen Überblick über die “klassischen” Theorien von Keynes, Kaldor und Working; und der dritte (Haupt-) Teil ist der modernen Theorie dieser Märkte gewidmet. Die moderne Theorie unterscheidet sich von der klassischen u. a. durch eine explizite Berücksichtigung der Informationsstruktur und Erwartungsbildung sowie durch die systematische Verwendung von Gleichgewichtsbegriffen. Gestützt auf neuere Resultate verschiedener Autoren wird gezeigt, wie die moderne Theorie zur Klärung einer Reihe von Fragen dienen kann, z. B. der Bedingungen, unter denen Terminmärkte zu einer Pareto-effizienten Allokation führen, des Zusammenhangs zwischen Terminpreisschwankungen und Informationsstruktur, des Einflusses von Terminmärkten auf Produktionsentscheidungen, des Ausmaßes, in dem die Preise auf Terminmärkten private Information aggregieren, usw.
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