pure and applied geophysics

, Volume 125, Issue 4, pp 597–612 | Cite as

Probabilities of occurrence of large earthquakes in the Aegean and surrounding area during the period 1986–2006

  • B. C. Papazachos
  • E. E. Papadimitriou
  • A. A. Kiratzi
  • Ch. A. Papaioannou
  • G. F. Karakaisis
Article

Abstract

Repeat times of large shocks are obtained for 17 seismic fracture zones of the Aegean and surrounding area, from times of historic and present century earthquakes. The mean standard deviation of the repeat times is approximately 50% of any one observation.

A probabilistic approach is then used to forecast the likelihood of large future earthquakes in each fracture zone, using as input the time of the last large shock, the average repeat time and its standard deviation. Shallow and intermediate depth earthquakes are examined separately. The calculated probabilities are high for the entire Hellenic arc, both for shallow and intermediate depth seismicity, for the area of Leucas island (Ionian), of Lesbos island (Aegean), for Patraikos-west Corinthiakos Gulfs, for Evoikos Gulf as well as for southern Bulgaria.

The probability estimates based on the most recent large earthquakes, involve a number of basic physical assumptions and we would think that they provide a semi-stochastic approach to the problem of earthquake prediction in Greece.

Key words

Probabilistic earthquake prediction Aegean area 

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Copyright information

© Birkhäuser Verlag 1987

Authors and Affiliations

  • B. C. Papazachos
    • 1
  • E. E. Papadimitriou
    • 1
  • A. A. Kiratzi
    • 1
  • Ch. A. Papaioannou
    • 1
  • G. F. Karakaisis
    • 1
  1. 1.Geophysical LaboratoryUniversity of ThessalonikiThessalonikiGreece

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