Advertisement

Springer Nature is making SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 research free. View research | View latest news | Sign up for updates

Effects of climatic variability on the hydrologic response of a freshwater watershed

Abstract

A generalized watershed model was used to evaluate the effects of global climate changes on the hydrologic responses of freshwater ecosystems. The Enhanced Trickle Down (ETD) model was applied to W-3 watershed located near Danville, Vermont. Eight years of field data was used to perform model calibration and verification and the results were presented in Nikolaidis et al., (1993). Results from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) general circulation models which simulated the doubling of present day atmospheric CO2 scenarios were used to perform the hydrologic simulations for the W-3 watershed. The results indicate that the W-3 watershed will experience increases in annual evapotranspiration and decreases in annual outflow and soil moisture. Stochastic models that simulate collective statistical properties of meteorological time series were developed to generate data to drive the ETD model in a Monte-Carlo fashion for quantification of the uncertainty in the model predictions due to input time series. This coupled deterministic and stochastic model was used to generate probable scenarios of future hydrology of the W-3 watershed. The predicted evapotranspiration and soil moisture under doubling present day atmospheric CO2 scenarios exceed the present day uncertainty due to input time series by a factor greater than 2. The results indicate that the hydrologic response of the W-3 watershed will be significantly different than its present day response. The Enhanced Trickle Down model can be used to evaluate land surface feedbacks and assessing water quantity management in the event of climate change.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in to check access.

References

  1. Anderson, E. A., H. J. Greenan, R. Z. Wipkey and C. T. Machell, 1979. Watershed Hydro-Climatology and Data for Water Years 1960–1974, NOAA-ARS Cooperative Research Project, U. S. Dept. of Commerce and U. S. Dept. of Agriculture.

  2. Eagleson, P. S., Climate, Soil, and Vegetation. 1978. The Distribution of Annual Precipitation Derived from Observed Storm Sequences, Water Resour. Res., 14(5), 713–721.

  3. Clark, R. T., Problems and Methods of Univariate Synthetic Hydrology, 1977. Mathematical Models for Surface water Hydrology, Edited by Ciriani, T. A. et al., John Willy, New York, 3–18.

  4. Foufoula-Georgion, E. and D. P. Lettenmaier, 1986. Continuous-Time Versus Discrete-Time Point Process Models for Rainfall Occurrence Series, Water Resour. Res., 22(4), 531–542.

  5. Georgakakos, K. P., G. M. Valle-Filho, N. P. Nikolaidis and J. L. Schnoor, 1989. Lake Acidification Studies: The Role of Input Uncertainty in Long-Term Prediction, Water Resour. Res., 25(7), 1511–1518.

  6. Gleick, P. H., 1989. Climate Change, Hydrology, and Water Resources, Rev. Geophysics, 27(3), 329–344.

  7. Gleick, P. H., 1990. Global Climatic Changes: A Summary of Regional Hydrological Impacts, Civil Eng. Practice, Spring, 53–68.

  8. Hu, H.-L., 1991. Global Climate Change Studies: The Role of Input Uncertainty on the Hydrologic Response of Freshwater Watersheds, M. S. Thesis, Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Conneticut.

  9. Huff, F. A., 1967. Time Distribution of Rainfall in Heavy Storm, Water Resour. Res., 3(4), 1007–1019.

  10. Isaaks, R. A. and R. M. Strivastara, 1989. An Introduction to Applied Geostatistics, 257–259, Oxford University Press, New York.

  11. Kothandaraman, V., 1971. Analysis of Water Temperature Variations in Large River, J. Sanitary Eng. Division, ASCE, 97(SA1), 19–31.

  12. Kothandaramen, V., 1972. Air-Water Temperature Relationship in Illinois River, Water Resour. Bull., 8(1).

  13. Kohlmaier, G. H., et al., 1989. Modeling the Seasonal Contribution of a CO2 Fertilization Effect of the Terrestial Vegetation to the Amplitude Increase in Atmospheric CO2 at Mauna Loa Observatory, Tellus, 41B, 487–510.

  14. Lettenmaier, D. P. and T. Y. Gan, 1990. Hydrologic Sensitivity of the Scramento-San Joaquin River Basin, California, to Global Warming, Water Resour. Res., 26(1), 69–86.

  15. Lettenmaier, D. P. and D. P. Sheer, 1991. Climatic Sensitivity of California Water Resources, J. Water Resour. Plan. and Mgmt., 117(1), ASCE, 108–125.

  16. Lin, J. D. and F. S. Sun, 1986. A Method for Coupling a Parameterization of the Planetary Boundary Layer with a Hydrologic Model, J. Climate and App. Meteo., 25(12).

  17. Marien, J. L. and G. L. Vandewiele, 1986. A Point Rainfall Generator with Internal Storm Structure, Water Resour. Res., 22(4), 475–582.

  18. McCabe, G. J. and L. A. Barrie, 1989. Atmospheric and Climatic Change in the Delaware River Basin, Water Resour. Bull., 25(6), 1231–1242.

  19. McCabe, G. J., D. M. Wolock, L. E. Hay and M. A. Ayers, 1990. Effects of Climatic Change on the Thornthwaite Moisture Index, Water Resour. Bull., 26(4), 633.

  20. Mitchell, J. F. B., 1989. The Greenhouse Effect and Climate Change, Rev. Geophys, 27(1), 115–139.

  21. Nikolaidis, N. P., H. Rajaram, J. L. Schnoor and K. P. Georgakakos, 1988. Generalized Soft Water Acidification Model, J. Water Poll. Control Fed., 24(12), 1983–1996.

  22. Nikolaidis, N. P., H. Rajaram, J. L. Schnoor and K. P. Georgakakos, 1989. Modeling of Long-Term Lake Alkalinity Responses to Acid Deposition, J. Water Poll. Control Fed., 61(2), 188–199.

  23. Nikolaidis, N. P., H.-L. Hu, C. Ecsedy and J. D Lin, 1993. Hydrologic Response of Freshwater Watersheds to Climatic Variability: Model Development, Water Resour. Res., 29(10), 3317–3328.

  24. Schnoor, J. L., N. P. Nikolaidis and G. E. Glass, 1986. Lake Resources at Risk to Acidic Deposition in the Upper Midwest. J. of Water Poll. Control Feder., 58(2), 139–148.

  25. Smit, B., L. Lodlow and M. Brklacich, 1988. Implications of a Global Climatic Warming for Agriculture: A Review and Appraisal, J. Environ Qual., 17(4), 519–527.

  26. Song, C. C. S., A. F. Pabst and C. E. Bowers, 1974. Stochastic Analysis of Air and Water Temperature, J. of Environ. Eng. Division, ASCE, 99(6).

  27. Viessman, W.Jr., G. L. Lewis and J. W. Knapp, 1989. Introduction to Hydrology, 3Ed., Harper & Row.

  28. Waymire, E. D. and V. K. Gupta, 1981. The Mathematical Structure of Rainfall Representations: A Review of the Stochastic Rainfall Models, Water Resour. Res., 17(5), 1261–1272.

Download references

Author information

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Nikolaidis, N.P., Hu, H. & Ecsedy, C. Effects of climatic variability on the hydrologic response of a freshwater watershed. Aquatic Science 56, 161–178 (1994). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00877206

Download citation

Key words

  • Global climate change
  • modeling
  • freshwater watersheds
  • uncertainty