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Run-turning points and turning periods of flood and drought years

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Based on the theory of recurrent events, run-turning points and turning periods are described and applied to the data of Shanghai. It is shown that in the case of this application a good fit of the mathematical models of turning points and turning periods exists. An important application of this theory to climatology is that the double negative binomial distribution can be suggested. Examining some more details of this example it is not difficult to prove that the parameters (means and variances) of run-turning points and turning periods are useful tools for flood/drought analyses, while the climatic prediction is unreliable, because of unpredictable cyclical variation components. The problem of the climatic prediction by means of quasi-periodicities has been discussed also in connection with the turning periods.


Ausgehend von der Theorie sich wiederholender Ereignisse wurden Wendepunkte und Wiederholungszeiten beschrieben und auf die Daten von Shangai angewandt. Es zeigte sich dabei gute Übereinstimmung mit mathematischen Modellen der Wendepunkte und der Wiederholungszeiten. Eine wichtige klimatologische Anwendung dieser Theorie liegt in der Annahme einer doppelten negativen Binominalverteilung. Weitere Details zeigen, daß die Parameter (Mittel und Varianzen) der Wendepunkte und der Wiederholungszeiten brauchbare Instrumente zur Analyse von Flut- und Dürrejahren sind, während die Klimavorhersagen aufgrund unvorhersagbarer zyklischer Varianzkomponenten unzuverlässig sind. Das Problem der Klimavorhersage über Quasiperiodizitäten wird in Zusammenhang mit Wiederholungszeiten gleichfalls angesprochen.

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Yao, C.S. Run-turning points and turning periods of flood and drought years. Theor Appl Climatol 40, 111–118 (1989).

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  • Climate Change
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  • Mathematical Model
  • Water Management
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