, Volume 53, Issue 3, pp 361–386 | Cite as

Unreliable probabilities, risk taking, and decision making

  • Peter Gärdenfors
  • Nils-Eric Sahlin
The Foundations Of Probability


Decision Making Risk Taking Unreliable Probability 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.


  1. [1]
    Bar-Hillel, M.: 1979, ‘The Paradox of Ideal Evidence and the Concept of Relevance’, a translation of a paper appearing in IYYUN, a Hebrew Philosophical Quarterly, 27, 1976–1977.Google Scholar
  2. [2]
    Becker, S. W. and Brownson, F. O.: 1964, ‘What Price Ambiguity? Or the Role of Ambiguity in Decision Making’, Journal of Political Economy 72, 62–73.Google Scholar
  3. [3]
    Bernstein, A. R. and Wattenberg, F.: 1969, ‘Non-Standard Measure Theory’, in W.A.J. Luxemburg, ed., Applications of Model Theory of Algebra, Analysis and Probability, Holt, Rinerhart & Winston, New York, 171–185.Google Scholar
  4. [4]
    Carnap, R.: 1950, Logical Foundations of Probability, University of Chicago Press, Chicago.Google Scholar
  5. [5]
    Dempster, A. P.: 1967, ‘Upper and Lower Probabilities Induced by a Multivalued Mapping’, Ann. Math. Stat. 38, 325–339.Google Scholar
  6. [6]
    Edman, M.: 1973, ‘Adding Independent Pieces of Evidence’, in Modality, Morality and Other Problems of Sense and Nonsense; Essays Dedicated to Sören Halldén, C.W.K. Gleerup, Lund, 180–191.Google Scholar
  7. [7]
    Ekelöf, P.O.: 1977, Rättegång, P. A. Norstedt & Söner, Stockholm.Google Scholar
  8. [8]
    Ellsberg, D.: 1961, ‘Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms’, Quarterly Journal of Economics 75, 643–669.Google Scholar
  9. [9]
    Fellner, W.: 1961, ‘Distortion of Subjective Probabilities as a Reaction to Uncertainty’, Quarterly Journal of Economics 75, 670–689.Google Scholar
  10. [10]
    de Finetti, B.: 1980, ‘Foresight: Its Logical Laws, Its Subjective Sources’, in H. E. Kyberg and H. E. Smokler, eds., Studies in Subjective Probability, R. E. Krieger, New York, 53–118.Google Scholar
  11. [11]
    Freeling, A.: 1980, ‘Fuzzy Sets and Decision Analysis’, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics SMC-10, no. 1, 341–354.Google Scholar
  12. [12]
    Gärdenfors, P.: 1978, ‘On the Logic of Relevance’, Synthese 37, 351–367.Google Scholar
  13. [13]
    Gärdenfors, P.: 1979, ‘Forecasts, Decisions and Uncertain Probabilities’, Erkenntnis 14, 159–181.Google Scholar
  14. [14]
    Gärdenfors, P. and Sahlin, N-E.: 1981, ‘Decision Making with Unreliable Probabilities’. Paper presented at Eighth Research Conference on Subjective Probability, Utility and Decision Making, Budapest.Google Scholar
  15. [15]
    Goldsmith, R. W. and Sahlin, N-E.: 1982, ‘The Role of Second-order Probabilities in Decision Making’, in Humphreys, P. C., Svenson, O. and Vari, A., eds., Analysing and Aiding Decision Processes, North-Holland, Amsterdam.Google Scholar
  16. [16]
    Goldsmith, R. W. and Sahlin, N-E.: 1981, ‘Do Second-order Probabilities Affect Decisions?’, forthcoming.Google Scholar
  17. [17]
    Goldsmith, R. W. and Sahlin, N-E.: 1981 ‘Second-order Probabilities and Risk in Decision Making’, forthcoming.Google Scholar
  18. [18]
    Good, I. J.: 1962, ‘Subjective Probability as a Measure of a Non-Measurable Set’, in E. Nagel, P. Suppes and A. Tarski, eds., Logic, Methodology and Philosophy of Science; Proc. of the 1960 Int. Congress, Stanford University Press, Stanford.Google Scholar
  19. [19]
    Halldén, S.: 1973, ‘Indiciemekanismer’, Tidskrift for Rettsvitenskap 86, 55–64.Google Scholar
  20. [20]
    Hansson, B.: 1981, ‘The Decision Game — the Conceptualisation of Risk and Utility’, in E. Morscher and R. Stranzinger, eds., Ethics — Foundations, Problems, and Applications, Wien.Google Scholar
  21. [21]
    Hodges, J. L. and Lehmann, E. L.: 1952, ‘The Uses of Previous Experience in Reaching Statistical Decisions’, Annals of Mathematical Statistics 23, 396–407.Google Scholar
  22. [22]
    Hurwicz, L: 1951, ‘Some Specification Problems and Applications to Econometric Models’, Econometrica 19, 343–344 (abstract).Google Scholar
  23. [23]
    Jeffrey, R. C.: 1977, ‘Savage's Omelet’, in F. Suppe and P. D. Asquith, eds., PSA 1976, volume 2, East Lansing, Michigan, 361–371.Google Scholar
  24. [24]
    Kahneman, D. and Tversky, A.: 1979, ‘Prospect Theory’, Econometrica 47, 263–292.Google Scholar
  25. [25]
    Keynes, J. M.: 1921, A Treatise on Probability, Macmillan, London.Google Scholar
  26. [26]
    Levi, I.: 1974, ‘On Indeterminate Probabilities’, Journal of Philosophy 71, 391–418.Google Scholar
  27. [27]
    Levi, I.: 1980, The Enterprise of Knowledge, MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass.Google Scholar
  28. [28]
    Luce, D. and Krantz, D. H.: 1971, ‘Conditional Expected Utility’, Econometrica 39, 253–271.Google Scholar
  29. [29]
    Luce, D. and Raiffa, H.: 1957, Games and Decisions, Wiley, New York, 288–290.Google Scholar
  30. [30]
    Peirce, C. S.: 1932, Collected Papers, ed. by Hartshorne and Weiss, Belknap Press, Cambridge, Mass.Google Scholar
  31. [31]
    Popper, K. R.: 1974, The Logic of Scientific Discovery, Hutchinson, London.Google Scholar
  32. [32]
    Rosenkrantz, R. D.: 1973, ‘Probability Magic Unmasked’, Philosophy of Science 40, 227–233.Google Scholar
  33. [33]
    Sahlin, N-E.: 1980, ‘Generalized Bayesian Decision Models’, Working Paper.Google Scholar
  34. [34]
    Sahlin, N-E.: 1980, ‘Level of Aspiration and Risk’, Working Paper No. 21, The Mattias Fremling Society.Google Scholar
  35. [35]
    Savage, L. J.: 1972, The Foundations of Statistics, Dover, New York.Google Scholar
  36. [36]
    Smith, C. A. B.: 1961, ‘Consistency in Statistical Inference and Decision’, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Ser. B 23, 1–25.Google Scholar
  37. [37]
    Smith, C. A. B.: 1965, ‘Personal Probabilities and Statistical Analysis’, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Ser. A 128, 469–499.Google Scholar
  38. [38]
    Wald, A.: 1950, Statistical Decision Functions, J. Wiley & Sons, New York.Google Scholar
  39. [39]
    Watson, S. R., Weiss, J. and Donell, M.: 1979, ‘Fuzzy Decision Analysis’, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics SMC-9, no. 1, 1–9.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© D. Reidel Publishing Co 1982

Authors and Affiliations

  • Peter Gärdenfors
    • 1
  • Nils-Eric Sahlin
    • 1
  1. 1.Lund UniversitySweden

Personalised recommendations