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Economics of Planning

, Volume 14, Issue 3, pp 161–165 | Cite as

Error performances of the multilevel world integrated model (WIM) as applied to Nigeria

  • Y. K. Adamson
Article
  • 11 Downloads

Conclusions

From the Table 2 results, our conclusion is that the level of error propagation tends to be much smaller in the model whose technique is based on the multilevel hierarchical systems theory than in the one that adopts the naive Forecast for Year n Equals Statistics for Year n-1 Approach (but for one case where the latter resulted in a smaller error) or the technique of parameter estimations based on econometric theory.

Some of the factors which may be responsible are:
  1. (a)

    The problems of data availability and accuracy which tend to weaken the validity of parameter estimations based on time series data.

     
  2. (b)

    A relative advantage of WIM is, in a sense, that it is not a fixed model like the econometric forecasting models. Then the primary assumption of WIM is that changes do occur and therefore it offers a technique through which preferred trends can be selected. As a result, it does not perceive the economy as a system whose future can be predicted from historical patterns alone.

     

In conclusion, therefore, a planner should consider this aspect as important when choosing which type of model to be applied for development planning.

Keywords

Time Series Economic Growth Parameter Estimation Series Data Economic System 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

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References

  1. Y.K. Adamson, “An Evaluation of the Performances of a Developing Country's Forecasting Models — A Case for Planning Without an Econometric Model?” Economics of Planning, Vol. 14, No. 1, 1978.Google Scholar
  2. Y.K.Adamson and P.G.Strauch, “Using the World Integrated Model (WIM) to Evaluate Nigerian Development Prospects up to Year 2000,” Systems Applications Inc., Cleveland, U.S.A., 1978.Google Scholar
  3. Central Planning Office, “Economic and Statistical Review, 1977,” Lagos, Nigeria, 1978.Google Scholar
  4. M.D.Mesarovic and E.Pestel, Mankind At the Turning Point, Second Report to The Club of Rome, E.P. Dutton & Co., New York, 1974.Google Scholar
  5. M.D. Mesarovic (et. al.), “Interactive Mode Analysis of Energy Crisis Using Multilevel World Model,” Futures, August 1973.Google Scholar
  6. P.G.Strauch, “Description of the World Model Computer Program (S16),” Systems Applications Inc., Cleveland, U.S.A., 1978.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© The Centre for Russian and East European Studies 1978

Authors and Affiliations

  • Y. K. Adamson
    • 1
  1. 1.Nigerian Institute of Social and Economic ResearchUniversity of IbadanNigeria

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