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Veterinary Research Communications

, Volume 20, Issue 3, pp 273–283 | Cite as

Climatic factors associated with the infection of herds of cattle with bluetongue viruses

  • M. P. Ward
Virology

Abstract

The incidence of bluetongue virus infection of 15 cattle herds in Queensland, Australia, was determined by a serum neutralization test. The maximum temperature (°C), minimum temperature (°C) and rainfall (mm) data were obtained from the meteorological recording stations closest to each herd. Using unweighted least-squares regression analysis, the best statistical model explaining the most variability in the herd incidence rate included the ratio between the maximum and minimum temperature recorded at both 1 month and 6 months preceding seroconversion, and rainfall recorded at both 2 months and 6 months preceding seroconversion. More than 90% of the variability in the incidence of bluetongue virus infection in the herds was explained by the model, a considerable improvement on previous models that used prevalence data. The prospective nature of the study also supports a strong causal relationship between climatic factors and the occurrence of infection in cattle herds.

Keywords

Australia bluetongue cattle climate epidemiology incidence regression analysis 

Abbreviations

SN

serum neutralization

Rinfasup2

adjusted coefficient of multiple determination

AIC

Akaike's information criterion

FPE

Akaike's final prediction error

PRESS

predicted sum of squares

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Copyright information

© Kluwer Academic Publishers bv 1996

Authors and Affiliations

  • M. P. Ward
    • 1
  1. 1.Queensland Department of Primary IndustriesToowombaAustralia

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