Abstract
A time series of hurricanes in the Caribbean basin extending from 1500 to 1990 is investigated with the purpose of establishing the years, time of year, and locations that have been hit by tropical cyclones. The Windward Islands show higher hurricane frequency earlier in the season (July–August) than the Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles (September–October). In the course of the centuries a certain shift towards a later onset and peak of the season might have occurred, but imperfect early observations subtract validity from this finding. For the same reason it is difficult to prove that hurricane frequency has increased in later centuries. Nevertheless, a concentration of observed hurricanes in particular years, or clusters of years, stands out in the series and allows to distinguish periods of heightened or lowered hurricane activity. When comparisons are made with major climatic fluctuations in the tropical belt, it becomes evident that lesser numbers of hurricanes occur during El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific and increased numbers tend to develop during Anti-Niño episodes. It also seems that years of high hurricane incidence occur in a conspicuous temporal “vicinity” to major El Niño events, which suggests brisk changes in ocean/atmosphere conditions (Niño to Anti Niño, or vice versa) theoretically explained by “cusp catastrophe” or “chaos theory”.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Andrade, L. de: Introduçao a sociologia das secas. Editora A Noite, Rio de Janeiro, 1948.
Avila, L. A.; Clark, G. B.: Atlantic tropical systems of 1988. Month. Weather Rev. 117, 2260–2265 (1989)
Bennett, E. B.: Influence of the Azores high on sea level pressure and wind, and on precipitation in the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean. Inter-Amer. Tropical Tuna Comm. Bull. 12, 1–23 (1966)
Caviedes, C. N.: Secas and El Niño: Two simultaneous climatological hazards in South America. Proceedings Assoc. Amer. Geogr. 5, 44–49 (1973)
Caviedes, C. N.: On the genetic links of precipitation in South America. In: Havlik, D; Mäckel, R. (eds.), Fortschritte landschaftsökologischer und klimatologischer Forschungen in den Tropen. Freiburger Geographische Hefte 18, 55–77 (1982 a)
Caviedes, C. N.: Natural hazards in South America: In search of a method and a theory. GeoJournal 6/2, 101–111 (1982 b)
Caviedes, C. N.: The anomalous climate of South America in 1988. Tropical Ocean-Atmosphere Newsletter 52, 1–5 (1989)
Caviedes, C. N.; Waylen, P. R.: Chapters for a climatic history of South America. Festschrift zur Ehre von Professor Wolfgang Weischet's 70. Geburtstag. Freiburger Geographische Hefte 32, 149–180 (1991)
Chung, J. C.: Correlations between the tropical Atlantic Trade Winds and precipitation in northeastern Brazil. Journ. of Climatology. 2, 35–46 (1982)
Claxton, R. H.: Climate and History. In: Bailes, K. E. (ed.), Environmental History. Critical Issues in Comparative Perspective. University Press of America, Washington D C 1985.
Covey, D.; Hastenrath, S.: Pacific El Niño phenomenon and the Atlantic circulation. Month. Weather Rev. 106, 1280–1287 (1978)
Doberitz, R.: Cross spectrum and filter analysis of monthly rainfall and wind data in the tropical Atlantic regions. Bonner Meteor. Abhand. 8, 77
Douglas, A. V.; Englehart, P. J.: On a statistical relationship between autumn rainfall in the central equatorial Pacific and subsequent winter precipitation in Florida. Month. Weather Rev. 109, 2377–2382 (1981)
Enfield, D.; Cid, L.: Statistical analysis of El Niño/Southern Oscillation over the last 500 years. TOGA Notes 1, 1–4 (1990)
Flohn, H.: Singular events and catastrophes now and in climatic history. Naturwissenschaften 73, 136–149 (1986)
Glantz, M. H.: El Niño: Should it take the blame for disasters? Mazingira 8, 21–26 (1984)
Gray, W. M.: Atlantic seasonal hurricane frequency. Part 1. El Niño and the 30 mb quasi biennal oscillation (QBO). Month. Weather Rev. 112, 1649–1668 (1984) Part 2. Atlantic seasonal hurricane frequency. Forecasting its variability. Month. Weather Rev. 112, 1668–1683 (1984)
Grosske, F.: Sobre la pluviosidad en Caracas. Ediciones del Concejo Municipal del Distrito Federal, Caracas 1968.
Hastenrath, S.: Variations in the Atlantic-Pacific circulation. In: Pittock, A. B. (ed.), Climatic Change and Variability: A southern perspective. Cambridge University Press, 1978.
Hastenrath, S.; Heller, L.: Dynamics of climatic hazards in Northeast Brazil. Quart. Journ. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 103, 77–92 (1977)
Kousky, V.; Kagano, C.; Cavalcanti, L.: Review of the Southern Oscillation: Oceanic-atmospheric circulation changes and related rainfall anomalies. Tellus 36, 490–504 (1984)
Lawrence, M. B.; Gross, J. M.: Atlantic hurricane season of 1988. Month. Weather Rev. 2248–2259 (1989)
Millás, J. C.: Hurricanes of the Caribbean and adjacent regions, 1492–1800. Academy of the Arts and Sciences of the Americas, Miami 1968.
Neumann, C. H.; Jarvinen, B. R.; Pike, A. C.: Tropical Cyclones of the North Atlantic Ocean, 1871–1986. Ashville, NC, NCAR Historic Climatology Series 6-2 (1988)
Oficina Meteorológica de Chile.: Estudio de las precipitaciones de Chile durante 429 años y la sequía del año 1968. Oficina Meteorológica de Chile, Santiago 1968.
Paine, R.: Predicting the 1985 hurricane season. Weatherwise 38, 200–203 (1985)
Palmer, T. N.: Drought in Brazil, sea surface temperature, and the North Atlantic Oscillation. Tropical Ocean-Atmosphere Newsletter 35, 3–5 (1986)
Quinn, W. H.; Neal, V. T.; Antunez de Mayolo, S. E.: El Niño occurrences over the past four and a half centuries. Journ. Geophys. Research 92, 14449–14461 (1987)
Ramírez de Arellano, R. W.: Los huracanes de Puerto Rico. Bol. de la Univ. de Puerto Rico, Ser. II, 2, 12–48 (1932)
Rogers, J. C.: Precipitation variability over the Caribbean and tropical Americas associated with the Southern Oscillation. Journ. of Climate 1, 172–182 (1988)
Romero, H.: The 1988 drought in Chile. Tropical Ocean-Atmosphere Newsletter 52, 5–6 (1989)
Salivia, L. A.: Historia de los temporales de Puerto Rico y las Antillas. P.R. Editorial Edil, San Juan 1972.
Serra, A.: Aspectos estatisticos das Secas Nordestinas. Conselho Nacional de Pesquisas, Rio de Janeiro 1973.
Tannehill, I. R.: Hurricanes. 6. edn. Princeton University Press, 1945.
Taulis, E.: De la distribution des pluies au Chili. Societé de Géographie de Genève 1, 3–20 (1934)
Taviani, P. E.: Los viajes de Colón: El gran descubrimiento. Editorial Planeta — De Agostini, Barcelona 1989.
Tourré, Y.; Rasmusson, E.: Tropical Atlantic region during the 1982–83 Equatorial Pacific warming event. Tropical Ocean-Atmosphere Newsletter 25, 1–2 (1984)
Vallis, G. K.: El Niño: A chaotic dynamical system? Science 232, 243–245 (1986)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Caviedes, C.N. Five hundred years of hurricanes in the Caribbean: Their relationship with global climatic variabilities. GeoJournal 23, 301–310 (1991). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00193603
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00193603