Advertisement

GeoJournal

, Volume 23, Issue 4, pp 301–310 | Cite as

Five hundred years of hurricanes in the Caribbean: Their relationship with global climatic variabilities

  • Caviedes César N. 
Caribbean Hurricanes

Abstract

A time series of hurricanes in the Caribbean basin extending from 1500 to 1990 is investigated with the purpose of establishing the years, time of year, and locations that have been hit by tropical cyclones. The Windward Islands show higher hurricane frequency earlier in the season (July–August) than the Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles (September–October). In the course of the centuries a certain shift towards a later onset and peak of the season might have occurred, but imperfect early observations subtract validity from this finding. For the same reason it is difficult to prove that hurricane frequency has increased in later centuries. Nevertheless, a concentration of observed hurricanes in particular years, or clusters of years, stands out in the series and allows to distinguish periods of heightened or lowered hurricane activity. When comparisons are made with major climatic fluctuations in the tropical belt, it becomes evident that lesser numbers of hurricanes occur during El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific and increased numbers tend to develop during Anti-Niño episodes. It also seems that years of high hurricane incidence occur in a conspicuous temporal “vicinity” to major El Niño events, which suggests brisk changes in ocean/atmosphere conditions (Niño to Anti Niño, or vice versa) theoretically explained by “cusp catastrophe” or “chaos theory”.

Keywords

Time Series Cyclone Environmental Management Tropical Cyclone Climatic Variability 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Andrade, L. de: Introduçao a sociologia das secas. Editora A Noite, Rio de Janeiro, 1948.Google Scholar
  2. Avila, L. A.; Clark, G. B.: Atlantic tropical systems of 1988. Month. Weather Rev. 117, 2260–2265 (1989)Google Scholar
  3. Bennett, E. B.: Influence of the Azores high on sea level pressure and wind, and on precipitation in the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean. Inter-Amer. Tropical Tuna Comm. Bull. 12, 1–23 (1966)Google Scholar
  4. Caviedes, C. N.: Secas and El Niño: Two simultaneous climatological hazards in South America. Proceedings Assoc. Amer. Geogr. 5, 44–49 (1973)Google Scholar
  5. Caviedes, C. N.: On the genetic links of precipitation in South America. In: Havlik, D; Mäckel, R. (eds.), Fortschritte landschaftsökologischer und klimatologischer Forschungen in den Tropen. Freiburger Geographische Hefte 18, 55–77 (1982 a)Google Scholar
  6. Caviedes, C. N.: Natural hazards in South America: In search of a method and a theory. GeoJournal 6/2, 101–111 (1982 b)Google Scholar
  7. Caviedes, C. N.: The anomalous climate of South America in 1988. Tropical Ocean-Atmosphere Newsletter 52, 1–5 (1989)Google Scholar
  8. Caviedes, C. N.; Waylen, P. R.: Chapters for a climatic history of South America. Festschrift zur Ehre von Professor Wolfgang Weischet's 70. Geburtstag. Freiburger Geographische Hefte 32, 149–180 (1991)Google Scholar
  9. Chung, J. C.: Correlations between the tropical Atlantic Trade Winds and precipitation in northeastern Brazil. Journ. of Climatology. 2, 35–46 (1982)Google Scholar
  10. Claxton, R. H.: Climate and History. In: Bailes, K. E. (ed.), Environmental History. Critical Issues in Comparative Perspective. University Press of America, Washington D C 1985.Google Scholar
  11. Covey, D.; Hastenrath, S.: Pacific El Niño phenomenon and the Atlantic circulation. Month. Weather Rev. 106, 1280–1287 (1978)Google Scholar
  12. Doberitz, R.: Cross spectrum and filter analysis of monthly rainfall and wind data in the tropical Atlantic regions. Bonner Meteor. Abhand. 8, 77Google Scholar
  13. Douglas, A. V.; Englehart, P. J.: On a statistical relationship between autumn rainfall in the central equatorial Pacific and subsequent winter precipitation in Florida. Month. Weather Rev. 109, 2377–2382 (1981)Google Scholar
  14. Enfield, D.; Cid, L.: Statistical analysis of El Niño/Southern Oscillation over the last 500 years. TOGA Notes 1, 1–4 (1990)Google Scholar
  15. Flohn, H.: Singular events and catastrophes now and in climatic history. Naturwissenschaften 73, 136–149 (1986)Google Scholar
  16. Glantz, M. H.: El Niño: Should it take the blame for disasters? Mazingira 8, 21–26 (1984)Google Scholar
  17. Gray, W. M.: Atlantic seasonal hurricane frequency. Part 1. El Niño and the 30 mb quasi biennal oscillation (QBO). Month. Weather Rev. 112, 1649–1668 (1984) Part 2. Atlantic seasonal hurricane frequency. Forecasting its variability. Month. Weather Rev. 112, 1668–1683 (1984)Google Scholar
  18. Grosske, F.: Sobre la pluviosidad en Caracas. Ediciones del Concejo Municipal del Distrito Federal, Caracas 1968.Google Scholar
  19. Hastenrath, S.: Variations in the Atlantic-Pacific circulation. In: Pittock, A. B. (ed.), Climatic Change and Variability: A southern perspective. Cambridge University Press, 1978.Google Scholar
  20. Hastenrath, S.; Heller, L.: Dynamics of climatic hazards in Northeast Brazil. Quart. Journ. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 103, 77–92 (1977)Google Scholar
  21. Kousky, V.; Kagano, C.; Cavalcanti, L.: Review of the Southern Oscillation: Oceanic-atmospheric circulation changes and related rainfall anomalies. Tellus 36, 490–504 (1984)Google Scholar
  22. Lawrence, M. B.; Gross, J. M.: Atlantic hurricane season of 1988. Month. Weather Rev. 2248–2259 (1989)Google Scholar
  23. Millás, J. C.: Hurricanes of the Caribbean and adjacent regions, 1492–1800. Academy of the Arts and Sciences of the Americas, Miami 1968.Google Scholar
  24. Neumann, C. H.; Jarvinen, B. R.; Pike, A. C.: Tropical Cyclones of the North Atlantic Ocean, 1871–1986. Ashville, NC, NCAR Historic Climatology Series 6-2 (1988)Google Scholar
  25. Oficina Meteorológica de Chile.: Estudio de las precipitaciones de Chile durante 429 años y la sequía del año 1968. Oficina Meteorológica de Chile, Santiago 1968.Google Scholar
  26. Paine, R.: Predicting the 1985 hurricane season. Weatherwise 38, 200–203 (1985)Google Scholar
  27. Palmer, T. N.: Drought in Brazil, sea surface temperature, and the North Atlantic Oscillation. Tropical Ocean-Atmosphere Newsletter 35, 3–5 (1986)Google Scholar
  28. Quinn, W. H.; Neal, V. T.; Antunez de Mayolo, S. E.: El Niño occurrences over the past four and a half centuries. Journ. Geophys. Research 92, 14449–14461 (1987)Google Scholar
  29. Ramírez de Arellano, R. W.: Los huracanes de Puerto Rico. Bol. de la Univ. de Puerto Rico, Ser. II, 2, 12–48 (1932)Google Scholar
  30. Rogers, J. C.: Precipitation variability over the Caribbean and tropical Americas associated with the Southern Oscillation. Journ. of Climate 1, 172–182 (1988)Google Scholar
  31. Romero, H.: The 1988 drought in Chile. Tropical Ocean-Atmosphere Newsletter 52, 5–6 (1989)Google Scholar
  32. Salivia, L. A.: Historia de los temporales de Puerto Rico y las Antillas. P.R. Editorial Edil, San Juan 1972.Google Scholar
  33. Serra, A.: Aspectos estatisticos das Secas Nordestinas. Conselho Nacional de Pesquisas, Rio de Janeiro 1973.Google Scholar
  34. Tannehill, I. R.: Hurricanes. 6. edn. Princeton University Press, 1945.Google Scholar
  35. Taulis, E.: De la distribution des pluies au Chili. Societé de Géographie de Genève 1, 3–20 (1934)Google Scholar
  36. Taviani, P. E.: Los viajes de Colón: El gran descubrimiento. Editorial Planeta — De Agostini, Barcelona 1989.Google Scholar
  37. Tourré, Y.; Rasmusson, E.: Tropical Atlantic region during the 1982–83 Equatorial Pacific warming event. Tropical Ocean-Atmosphere Newsletter 25, 1–2 (1984)Google Scholar
  38. Vallis, G. K.: El Niño: A chaotic dynamical system? Science 232, 243–245 (1986)Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Kluwer Academic Publishers 1991

Authors and Affiliations

  • Caviedes César N. 
    • 1
  1. 1.Department of GeographyUniversity of FloridaGainesvilleUSA

Personalised recommendations