Advertisement

Economics of Planning

, Volume 14, Issue 1, pp 25–30 | Cite as

An evaluation of a developing country's forecasting models — A case for planning without an econometric model?-

  • Y. K. Adamson
Article
  • 23 Downloads

Conclusions

It has been demonstrated that in the case of Nigeria, planning without an econometric forecasting model was a good decision as far as the models tested could show. However, this may be a confirmation of the fears entertained by certain experts that the developing economies are not suitable for such exercises.

Well, there are other types of planning models: the input-output type and its extension to mathematical programming, which have not been tried and tested. But as of now, we can conclude that econometric forecasting model should not be used for planning in Nigeria until they are well improved and well tested, else greater distortions may be introduced than by planning without a model.

Keywords

Economic Growth Mathematical Programming Economic System Forecast Model Econometric Model 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. 1.
    Adamson, Y.K., “A Linear Short-Term Forecasting Model for National Economic Planning in Nigeria”, unpublished M.Sc. Dissertation, the National Economic Planning Unit, University of Birmingham, United Kingdom, 1974.Google Scholar
  2. 2.
    Central Bank of Nigeria, “Annual Report and Statement of Accounts”, 1976.Google Scholar
  3. 3.
    C.P.O., “Second National Development Plan 1970–1974”, Lagos, 1970.Google Scholar
  4. 4.
    C.P.O., “Third National Development Plan 1975–1980”, Lagos, 1975.Google Scholar
  5. 5.
    C.P.O., “Review of Nigeria's Planning Experience”, paper delivered at the National Workshop on Planning Strategy for the 1980's NISER, University of Ibadan, January 1978.Google Scholar
  6. 6.
    Evans, M.K. and Klein, L.R. “Short and Long-Term Simulations with the Wharton Model”, Conference on Econometric Models of Cyclical Behaviour, Harvard. University, 1969.Google Scholar
  7. 7.
    Fromm, G. and Klein, L.R., “Solution of the Complete System”, in E. Kuh, (ed.), “The Brookings Model: Some Further Results” Chicago 1969.Google Scholar
  8. 8.
    Klein, L.R., “What Kind of Macro Econometric Model for Developing Economies?”,Indian Economic Journal, 13, pp.313–324.Google Scholar
  9. 9.
    UNCTAD, “Model of Nigeria” Geneva 1974.Google Scholar
  10. 10.
    World Bank, “Long-Term Projection Model of the Economy”, in “NIGERIA: Options for Long-Term Development” John Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, 1974.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© The Centre for Russian and East European Studies 1978

Authors and Affiliations

  • Y. K. Adamson
    • 1
  1. 1.Nigerian Institute of Social and Economic ResearchUniversity of IbadanNigeria

Personalised recommendations