An evaluation of a developing country's forecasting models — A case for planning without an econometric model?-
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It has been demonstrated that in the case of Nigeria, planning without an econometric forecasting model was a good decision as far as the models tested could show. However, this may be a confirmation of the fears entertained by certain experts that the developing economies are not suitable for such exercises.
Well, there are other types of planning models: the input-output type and its extension to mathematical programming, which have not been tried and tested. But as of now, we can conclude that econometric forecasting model should not be used for planning in Nigeria until they are well improved and well tested, else greater distortions may be introduced than by planning without a model.
KeywordsEconomic Growth Mathematical Programming Economic System Forecast Model Econometric Model
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