Solar Physics

, Volume 110, Issue 1, pp 191–210

Prolonged minima and the 179-yr cycle of the solar inertial motion

  • Rhodes W. Fairbridge
  • James H. Shirley
Article

Abstract

We employ the JPL long ephemeris DE-102 to study the inertial motion of the Sun for the period A.D. 760–2100. Defining solar orbits with reference to the Sun's successive close approaches to the solar system barycenter, occurring at mean intervals of 19.86 yr, we find simple relationships linking the inertial orientation of the solar orbit and the amplitude of the precessional rotation of the orbit with the occurrence of the principal prolonged solar activity minima of the current millenium (the Wolf, Spörer, and Maunder minima). The progression of the inertial orientation parameter is controlled by the 900-yr ‘great inequality’ of the motion of Jupiter and Saturn, while the precessional rotation parameter is linked with the 179-yr cycle of the solar inertial motion previously identified by Jose (1965). A new prolonged minimum of solar activity may be imminent.

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Arriaga, N.: 1955, J. Geophys. Res. 60, 535.Google Scholar
  2. Bagby, J. P.: 1975, Nature 253, 482.Google Scholar
  3. Barton, C. E., Merrill, R. T., and Barbetti, M.: 1979, Phys. Earth Planetary Int. 20, 96.Google Scholar
  4. Bigg, E. K.: 1967, Astron. J. 72, 463.Google Scholar
  5. Blizard, J. B.: 1981, Bull. Am. Astron. Soc. 13, 876.Google Scholar
  6. Bracewell, R. N.: 1986, Nature 323, 516.Google Scholar
  7. Bureau, R. A. and Craine, L. B.: 1970, Nature 228, 984.Google Scholar
  8. Clark, D.: 1979, New Sci. 168.Google Scholar
  9. Clark, D. and Stephenson, F. R.: 1978, Quart. J. Roy. Astron. Soc. 19, 387.Google Scholar
  10. Clemence, G. M.: 1953, Astron. Pap. Am. Ephemeris 13, Pt. 4.Google Scholar
  11. Cohen, T. J. and Lintz, P. R.: 1974, Nature 250, 398.Google Scholar
  12. Cole, T. W.: 1973, Solar Phys. 30, 103.Google Scholar
  13. Currie, R. G.: 1973, Astrophys. Space Sci. 20, 509.Google Scholar
  14. Damon, P. E.: 1977, in J. Zirker (ed.), Coronal Holes and High-Speed Streams, Colo. Assoc. Univ. Press, p. 429.Google Scholar
  15. Damon, P. E. and Linick, T.: 1986, Radiocarbon 28, No. 2A, 266.Google Scholar
  16. de Jong, A. F. M., Mook, W. G., and Becker, B.: 1979, Nature 280, 48.Google Scholar
  17. de Jong, A. F. M. and Mook, W. G.: 1980, Radiocarbon 22, 267.Google Scholar
  18. de la Rue, W., Stewart, B., and Loewy, B.: 1872, Proc. Roy. Soc. London 20, 210.Google Scholar
  19. de Vries, H. L.: 1958, Koninklijke Nederlandse Akad. Wetensch. Proc. Ser. B61, 94.Google Scholar
  20. Dingle, L. A., Van Hoven, G., and Sturrock, P. A.: 1973, Solar Phys. 31, 243.Google Scholar
  21. Eddy, J. A.: 1976, Science 192, 1189.Google Scholar
  22. Eddy, J. A.: 1977, in O. R. White (ed.), The Solar Output and Its Variation, Colo. Assoc. Univ. Press, p. 51.Google Scholar
  23. Eddy, J. A.: 1983, Solar Phys. 89, 195.Google Scholar
  24. Fairbridge, R. W. and Hameed, S.: 1983, Astron. J. 88, 867.Google Scholar
  25. Fairbridge, R. W. and Sanders, J. E.: 1987, in J. E. Sanders and M. Rampino (eds.), History, Periodicity, Predictability, Van Nostrand Reinhold (in press).Google Scholar
  26. Ferris, G. A. J.: 1969, J. Brit. Astron. Assoc. 79, 385.Google Scholar
  27. Gregg, D. P.: 1984, Solar Phys. 90, 185.Google Scholar
  28. Henkel, R.: 1972, Solar Phys. 25, 498.Google Scholar
  29. Jose, P. D.: 1965, Astron. J. 70, 193.Google Scholar
  30. Klein, J., Lerman, J. C., Damon, P. E., and Linick, T.: 1980, Radiocarbon 22, pp950.Google Scholar
  31. Klein, J., Lerman, J. C., Damon, P. E., and Ralph, E. K.: 1982, Radiocarbon 24, 103.Google Scholar
  32. Kuklin, G. V.: 1976, ‘Basic Mechanisms of Solar Activity’, in V. Bumba and J. Kleczek (eds.), IAU Symp. 71, 147.Google Scholar
  33. Landscheidt, T.: 1981, J. Interdiscipl. Cycl. Res. 12, 3.Google Scholar
  34. Landscheidt, T.: 1983, in B. M. McCormac (ed.), Weather and Climate Response to Solar Variations, Colo. Assoc. Univ. Press.Google Scholar
  35. Lazear, G., Damon, P. E., and Sternberg, R.: 1980, Radiocarbon 22, 318.Google Scholar
  36. Lomb, N. R. and Andersen, A. P.: 1980, Monthly Notices Roy. Astron. Soc. 190, 723.Google Scholar
  37. Maunder, E. W.: 1894, Knowledge 17, 173.Google Scholar
  38. Mörth, H. T., and Schlamminger, L.: 1979, in B. M. McCormac and T. Seliga (eds.), Solar-Terrestrial Influences on Weather and Climate, D. Reidel Publ. Co., Dordrecht, Holland, p. 193.Google Scholar
  39. Neftel, A., Oeschger, H., and Suess, H. E.: 1981, Earth Planetary Sci. Letters 56, 127.Google Scholar
  40. Nelson, J. H.: 1951, RCA Review 12, 26.Google Scholar
  41. Nelson, J. H.: 1954, Trans. Inst. Rad. Eng. CS-2, 19.Google Scholar
  42. Newhall, X. X., Standish, E. M., Jr., and Williams, J. G.: 1983, Astron. Astrophys. 125, 150.Google Scholar
  43. Okal, E. and Anderson, D. L.: 1975, Nature 253, 511.Google Scholar
  44. Otaola, J. A. and Zenteno, G.: 1983, Solar Phys. 89, 209.Google Scholar
  45. Pearson, G. W., Pilcher, J. R., and Baillie, M. G. L.: 1983, Radiocarbon 25, 179.Google Scholar
  46. Pimm, R. S. and Bjorn, T.: 1969, Prediction of Smoothed Sunspot Numbers Using Dynamic Relations Between the Sun and Planets, NASA N69-29781, Washington, D.C.Google Scholar
  47. Rabin, D., Wilson, R. H., and Moore, R. L.: 1986, Geophys. Res. Letters 13, 352.Google Scholar
  48. Schatten, K. H., and Hedin, A. E.: 1984, Geophys. Res. Letters 11, 873.Google Scholar
  49. Schove, D. J.: 1983, Sunspot Cycles, Hutchinson-Ross.Google Scholar
  50. Schuster, A.: 1911, Proc. Roy. Soc. London 85, 309.Google Scholar
  51. Siegenthaler, U., Heimann, M., and Oeschger, H.: 1980, Radiocarbon 22, 111.Google Scholar
  52. Siscoe, G. L.: 1980, Rev. Geophys. Space Phys. 18, 647.Google Scholar
  53. Smythe, C. M. and Eddy, J. A.: 1977, Nature 266, 434.Google Scholar
  54. Sonett, C. P.: 1982, Geophys. Res. Letters 9, 1313.Google Scholar
  55. Sonett, C. P.: 1984, Rev. Geophys. Space Phys. 22, 239.Google Scholar
  56. Sonett, C. P. and Suess, H. E.: 1984, Nature 307, 141.Google Scholar
  57. Stuiver, M.: 1961, J. Geophys. Res. 66, 273.Google Scholar
  58. Stuiver, M.: 1980, Nature 286, 868.Google Scholar
  59. Stuiver, M.: 1982, Radiocarbon 24, 1.Google Scholar
  60. Stuiver, M.: 1983, Radiocarbon 25, 219.Google Scholar
  61. Stuiver, M.: 1986, personal communication.Google Scholar
  62. Stuiver, M. and Grootes, P. M.: 1980, in R. O. Pepin, J. A. Eddy and K. T. Merrill (eds.), Proc. Conf. Ancient Sun, p. 165.Google Scholar
  63. Stuiver, M. and Pearson, G. W.: 1986, Radiocarbon 28, 805.Google Scholar
  64. Stuiver, M. and Quay, P. D.: 1980a, Science 207, 11.Google Scholar
  65. Stuiver, M. and Quay, P. D.: 1980b, Radiocarbon 22, 166.Google Scholar
  66. Stuiver, M. and Quay, P. D.: 1980c, Solar Phys. 74, 479.Google Scholar
  67. Suda, T.: 1962, J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan 40, 287.Google Scholar
  68. Suess, H. E.: 1980, Radiocarbon 22, 200.Google Scholar
  69. Suess, H. E.: 1986, Radiocarbon 28, 259.Google Scholar
  70. Takahashi, K.: 1968, Solar Phys. 3, 598.Google Scholar
  71. Van Flandern, T. C. and Pulkkinen, K. F.: 1979, Astrophys. J. Suppl. 41, 391.Google Scholar
  72. Wittmann, A.: 1978, Astron. Astrophys. 66, 93.Google Scholar
  73. Wood, K. D.: 1972, Nature 240, 91.Google Scholar
  74. Wood, R. M.: 1975, Nature 255, 312.Google Scholar
  75. Wood, R. M. and Wood, K. D.: 1965, Nature 208, 129.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© D. Reidel Publishing Company 1987

Authors and Affiliations

  • Rhodes W. Fairbridge
    • 1
  • James H. Shirley
    • 2
  1. 1.Department of Geological SciencesColumbia UniversityNew YorkU.S.A.
  2. 2.Canoga ParkU.S.A.

Personalised recommendations