Skip to main content
Log in

The economic cost of greenhouse-induced sea-level rise for developed property in the United States

  • Published:
Climatic Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Estimates of the true economic cost that might be attributed to greenhouse-induced sea-level rise on the developed coastline of the United States are offered for the range of trajectories that is now thought to be most likely. Along a 50-cm sea level rise trajectory (through 2100), for example, transient costs in 2065 (a year frequently anticipated for doubling of greenhouse-gas concentrations) are estimated to be roughly $70 million (undiscounted, but measured in constant 1990$). More generally and carefully cast in the appropriate context of protection decisions for developed property, the results reported here are nearly an order of magnitude lower than estimates published prior to 1994. They are based upon a calculus that reflects rising values for coastal property as the future unfolds, but also includes the cost-reducing potential of natural, market-based adaptation in anticipation of the threat of rising seas and/or the efficiency of discrete decisions to protect or not to protect small tracts of property that will be made when necessary and on the (then current) basis of their individual economic merit.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Abraham, J. and Hendershott, P.: 1993, ‘Patterns and Determinants of Metropolitan House Prices, 1977 to 1991’, in Browne and Rosengren (eds.), Real Estate and the Credit Crunch, Proc. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Boston.

  • Brookshire, D., Thayer, M., Tschirhart, J., and Schulze, W.: 1985, ‘A Test of the Expected Utility Model: Evidence from Earthquake Risks’, J. Political Economy 93, 369–389.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bruun, P.: 1962, ‘Sea Level Rise as a Cause of Shore Erosion,’ J. Waterways and Harbor Division 88.

  • Cline, W.: 1992, The Economics of Global Warming, Institute for International Economics, Washington.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fankhauser, S.: 1994a, ‘Protection vs. Retreat: Estimating the Costs of Sea Level Rise’, CSERGE Working Paper GEC 94-02.

  • Fankhauser, S.: 1994b, Valuing Climate Change: The Economics of the Greenhouse Effect, Earthscan, London.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gleick, P. H. and Maurer, E. P.: 1990, Assessing the Costs of Adapting to Sea Level Rise: A Case Study of San Francisco Bay, Pacific Institute for Studies in Development and the Environment, Oakland, CA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hendershott, P.: 1991, ‘Are Real Housing Prices Likely to Decline by 47 Percent?’, Regional Science and Urban Economics 21, 553–563.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hoffman, J. S., Keyes, D., and Titus, J. G.: 1983, ‘Projecting Future Sea Level Rise’, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington.

    Google Scholar 

  • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): 1992, Climate Change: The IPCC Second Scientific Assessment, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. [IPCC (92)].

    Google Scholar 

  • Leatherman, S.: 1989, ‘National Assessment of Beach Nourishment Requirements Associated with Accelerated Sea Level Rise’, in Smith, J. B. and Tirpak, D. (eds.), The Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the United States, Appendix B: Sea Level Rise, Reports to Congress, Environmental Protection Agency.

  • MacDonald, D., Murdoch, J., and White, H.: 1987, ‘Uncertain Hazards, Insurance, and Consumer Choice: Evidence from Housing Markets’, Land Economics 63, 361–371.

    Google Scholar 

  • Nicholls, R. J. and Leatherman, S.: 1994, in Strzepek, K. and Smith, J. (eds.), Climate Changes: Potential Impacts and Implications, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

    Google Scholar 

  • Nordhaus, W. D.: 1991, ‘To Slow or Not to Slow’, Economic 5, 920–937.

    Google Scholar 

  • Nordhaus, W. D.: 1994, Managing the Global Commons: The Economic of Climate Change, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Park, R., Trehan, J., Mausel, P., and Howe, R.: 1989, ‘The Effect of Sea Level Rise on U.S. Coastal Wetlands’, in Smith, J. B. and Tirpak, D. (eds.), The Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the United States, Appendix B: Sea Level Rise, Report to Congress, Environmental Protection Agency.

  • Samuelson, P.: 1964, ‘Tax Deductibility of Economic Depreciation to Insure Invariant Valuations’, J. Political Economy 72, 604–606.

    Google Scholar 

  • San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission (BCDC): 1988, ‘Protecting Shoreline Property from Coastal Erosion: An Analysis of the Effectiveness and Environmental Impacts of Administratively Authorized Protective Structures’.

  • Schneider, S. and Chen, R.: 1980, ‘Carbon Dioxide Warming and Coastline Flooding: Physical Factors and Climatic Impact’, Annu. Rev. Energy 5, 107–140.

    Google Scholar 

  • Smith, J. B.: July 1995, ‘Standardized Estimates of Climate Change Damages in the United States’, Hagler Bailly Consulting mimeo.

  • Smith, J. B. and Tirpak, D. (eds.): 1989, The Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the United States, Appendix B: Sea Level Rise, Report to Congress, Environmental Protection Agency.

  • Sorenson, R. N., Weisman, R., and Lennon, G.: 1984, in Barth, M. and Titus, J. (eds.), Greenhouse Effect and Sea Level Rise, Van Nostrand Reinhold Company, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Stiglitz, J.: 1986, Economics of the Public Sector, Norton, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Titus, J.: 1988, ‘Sealevel Rise’, in The Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the United States, U.S. EPA, Washington.

    Google Scholar 

  • Titus, J.: 1992, ‘The Cost of Climate Change to the United States’ in Majumdar, S. K. Yarnal, B., Miller, E. W., and Rosenfeld, L. M. (eds.), Global Climate Change: Implications, Challenges, and Mitigation Measures, Pennsylvania Academy of Science.

  • Titus, J. and Green, M. S.: 1989, ‘An Overview of the Nationwide Impacts of Sea Level Rise’, in Smith, J. B. and Tirpak, D. (eds.), The Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the United States, Appendix B: Sea Level Rise', Report to Congress, Environmental Protection Agency.

  • Titus, J. and Narayanan, V: 1995, ‘Probability Distribution of Future Sea Level Rise’, EPA Mimeo, revised, Washhington, DC.

  • Titus, J., Park, R., Leatherman, S., Weggle, J., Greene, M., Brown, S., Gaunt, C., Trehan, M., and Yohe, G.: 1992, ‘Greenhouse Effect and Sea Level Rise: The Cost of Holding Back the Sea’, Coastal Management 19, 219–233.

    Google Scholar 

  • URS Consultants: 1991, ‘Alternatives Definition Study: San Clemente Creek Flood Control Preliminary Design’, San Francisco.

  • Weggel, J., Brown, S., Escajadillo, J. C., Breen, P., and Doheny, E.: 1989, ‘The Cost of Defending Developed Shoreline Along Sheltered Shored’, in Smith, J. B. and Tirpak, D. (eds.), The Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the United States, Appendix B: Sea Level Rise, Report to Congress, Environmental Protection Agency.

  • Wigley, T.: 1995, ‘Global Mean Temperature and Sea Level Consequences of Greenhouse Gas Stabilization’, GRL [Wigley (959)].

  • Wigley, T., and Raper, S.: 1992, ‘Implications for Climate and Sea Level of Revised IPCC Emissions Scenarios’, Nature 347, 293–300.

    Google Scholar 

  • Yohe, G.: 1989, ‘The Cost of Not Holding Back the Sea - Economic Vulnerability’, Ocean and Shoreline Management 15, 233–255.

    Google Scholar 

  • Yohe, G.: 1990, ‘The Cost of Not Holding Back the Sea: Toward a National Sample of Economic Vulnerability’, Coastal Management 18, 403–431.

    Google Scholar 

  • Yohe, G.: 1993, ‘Sorting Out Facts and Uncertainties in Economic Response to the Physical Effects of Global Climate Change’ in Darmstadter, J. and Toman, M. (eds.), Assessing Surprises and Nonlinearities in Greenhouse Warming, Resources for the Future, Washington.

  • Yohe, G., Neumann, J., and Amaden, H.: 1995, ‘Assessing the Economic Cost of Greenhouse Induced Sea Level Rise’, J. Environ. Management and Economics, in press.

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Additional information

This research was funded by the Electric Power Research Institute as part of its impacts assessment program. Notwithstanding that support, the opinions expressed here and responsibility for any errors reside with the authors. The authors express their appreciation for comments offered on earlier drafts by Rick Freeman, Rob Mendelsohn, Joel Smith, Tom Wilson, Jim Titus, Robert Chen and the Snowmass Workshop on the Impacts of Global Change. If we may, we would also like to dedicate this paper to the memory of Dr. James Broadus from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. His untimely death was, indeed, tragic; and we miss both his company and his flawless contribution to this and other work.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Yohe, G., Neumann, J., Marshall, P. et al. The economic cost of greenhouse-induced sea-level rise for developed property in the United States. Climatic Change 32, 387–410 (1996). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00140353

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00140353

Keywords

Navigation