Climatic Change

, Volume 8, Issue 2, pp 135–153

Impacts of CO2-induced climatic change on water resources in the Great Lakes Basin

  • Stewart J. Cohen
Article

Abstract

Scenarios of CO2-induced climatic change, based on models produced by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab (GFDL), were used to estimate future changes in water supply in the Great Lakes Basin. The major components of annual Net Basin Supply, surface runoff and lake evaporation, were estimated using the Thornthwaite water balance model and the mass transfer approach, respectively. Two scenarios were derived from each climatic change model, one based on present normal winds, the other assuming reduced wind speeds. A third scenario was derived from GFDL, using wind speeds generated by the GFDL model. Results varied from a decrease in Net Basin Supply of 28.9% for GISS-normal winds, to a decrease of 11.7% for GFDL-reduced wind speeds. All five scenarios projected decreases. These differences in projection will have to be considered when performing climate impact studies, since economic activities affected by lake levels would probably experience different impacts under these scenarios.

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Ausubel, J. H.: 1983, ‘Can We Assess the Impacts of Climatic Changes?’ Climatic Change 5, 7–14.Google Scholar
  2. Ausubel, J. H. and Biswas, A. K., (eds.): 1980, Climate Constraints and Human Activities, International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis Proceedings Series, Vol 10. Pergamon Press, Oxford.Google Scholar
  3. Bach, W.: 1984a, CO2-Sensitivity Experiments Using General Circulation Models’, Progress in Physical Geography 8, 583–609.Google Scholar
  4. Bach, W.: 1984b, Our Threatened Climate: Ways of Averting the CO 2 Problem Through Rational Energy Use, English version translated by J. Jager. D. Reidel Publ. Co., Dordrecht, Holland.Google Scholar
  5. Bach, W., Pankrath, J., and Kellogg, W. (eds.): 1979, ‘Man's Impact on Climate’, Proceedings of an International Conference in Berlin, June 14–16, 1978, Elsevier Scientific Co., Amsterdam.Google Scholar
  6. Bruce, J. P.: 1984, ‘Great Lakes Levels and Flows: Past and Future’, Journal of Great Lakes Research 10 (1), 126–134.Google Scholar
  7. Chen, R. S., Boulding, E., and Schneider, S. H. (eds.): 1983, Social Science Research and Climate Change, D. Reidel Publ. Co., Dordrecht, Holland.Google Scholar
  8. Clark, W. C. (ed.): 1982, Carbon Dioxide Review: 1982, Clarendon Press, Oxford.Google Scholar
  9. Clark, W. C.: 1985, ‘Scales of Climate Impacts’, Climatic Change 7, 5–27.Google Scholar
  10. Climate Planning Board: 1979, Carbon dioxide issues and impacts. Proceedings of the Workshop on Energy/Carbon Dioxide Issues and Impacts, Toronto, August 28–29, 1979. Canadian Climate Program, Environment Canada.Google Scholar
  11. Cohen, S. J.: 1985, ‘Effects of Climatic Variations on Water Withdrawals in Metropolitan Toronto’, Canadian Geographer 29, 113–122.Google Scholar
  12. DeCooke, B. G., Bulkley, J. W., and Wright, S. J.: 1984, ‘Great Lakes Diversions: Preliminary Assessment of Economic Impacts’, Canadian Water Resources Journal 9 (1), 1–15.Google Scholar
  13. Glantz, M. H. and Ausubel, J. H.: 1984, ‘The Ogallala Aquifer and Carbon Dioxide: Comparison and Convergence’, Environmental Conservation 11 (2), 123–131.Google Scholar
  14. Idso, S. B.: 1982, Carbon Dioxide: Friend or Foe?, IBR Press, Tempe.Google Scholar
  15. Idso, S. B. and Brazel, A. J.: 1984, ‘Rising Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentrations May Increase Streamflow’, Nature 312, 51–53.Google Scholar
  16. IJC: 1975, Water Supply - Municipal, Industrial, Rural, Appendix 6, in Great Lakes Basin Framework Study. Great Lakes Basin Commission, Ann Arbor.Google Scholar
  17. IJC: 1981a, Main Report. Lake Erie Water Level Study, Report to the IJC by the International Lake Erie Regulation Study Board.Google Scholar
  18. IJC: 1981b, Great Lakes Diversions and Consumptive Uses, Report to the IJC by the International Great Lakes Diversions and Consumptive Uses Study Board.Google Scholar
  19. Jager, J.: 1983, Climate and Energy Systems: A Review of their Interactions, John Wiley and Sons, Chichester.Google Scholar
  20. Johnstone, K. J. and Louie, P. Y. T.: 1984, An Operational Water Budget for Climate Monitoring, Unpublished manuscript, Canadian Climate Centre Report No. 84–3. Available from the Canadian Climate Centre, Downsview, Ontario.Google Scholar
  21. Kates, R. W., Ausubel, J. H., and M. Berberian (eds.): Climate Impact Assessment: Studies of the Interaction of Climate and Society, John Wiley and Sons, Chichester. (forthcoming).Google Scholar
  22. Kellogg, W. W. and Schware, R.: 1981, Climate Change and Society, Aspen Institute for Humanistic Studies, Westview Press, Boulder.Google Scholar
  23. Mather, J.: 1978, The Climatic Water Balance in Environmental Analysis, Lexington Books, Lexington, MA.Google Scholar
  24. Miller, J. R. (ed.): 1980, Prospects for Man: Climatic Change, Centre for Research on Environmental Quality, York University, Downsview, Ontario.Google Scholar
  25. Ontario Hydro: 1984, The Carbon Dioxide Issue - An Ontario Hydro Perspective, Environmental Studies and Assessments Department Report No. 84003, May.Google Scholar
  26. Palutikof, J. P., Wigley, T. M. L., and Lough, J. M.: 1984, Seasonal Climate Scenarios for Europe and North America in a High-CO 2, Warmer World. U.S. Dept. of Energy, TR012, DOE/EV/10098–5, August. Available from National Technical Information Service, U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Springfield, VA.Google Scholar
  27. Quinn, F. H. and den Hartog, G.: 1981, ‘Evaporation Synthesis’, in E. J. Aubert and T. L. Richards (eds.), IFYGL - The International Field Year for the Great Lakes, U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Ann Arbor, p. 221–245.Google Scholar
  28. Richards, T. L. and Irbe, J. G.: 1969, ‘Estimates of Monthly Evaporation Losses from the Great Lakes 1950 to 1968 Based on the Mass Transfer Technique’, Proceedings Twelfth Conference on Great Lakes Research, International Association of Great Lakes Research, pp. 469–487.Google Scholar
  29. Sewell, W. R. D., MacDonald-McGee, D., and Locke, W.: 1984, Climate Variability and Change in Canada: Towards an Acceleration of the Social Science Research Effort, Unpublished manuscript, Canadian Climate Centre Report No. 84–12. Available from the Canadian Climate Centre, Downsview, Ontario.Google Scholar
  30. Slater, L. E. and Levin, S. K. (eds.): 1981, Climate's Impact on Food Supplies, American Association for the Advancement of Science Selected Symposium 62, Westview Press, Boulder.Google Scholar
  31. Thornes, J. E.: 1981, ‘A Paradigmatic Shift in Atmospheric Studies?’ Progress in Physical Geography 5, 3, 429–440.Google Scholar
  32. U.S. DOE: 1983, Response of the North American Corn Belt to Climatic Warming. TR006, DOE/NBB-0040. Available from National Technical Information Service, U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Springfield, VA.Google Scholar
  33. U.S. EPA: 1983, Can we Delay a Greenhouse Warming? Strategic Studies Staff, Office of Policy Analysis, September.Google Scholar
  34. U.S. EPA: 1984, Potential Climatic Impacts of Increasing Atmospheric CO 2 with Emphasis on Water Availability and Hydrology in the United States. Strategic Studies Staff, Office of Policy Analysis, April.Google Scholar
  35. U.S. NRC: 1982, Carbon Dioxide and Climate: A Second Assessment. National Academy Press, Washington.Google Scholar
  36. Wilson, J. W. and Pollock, D. M.: 1981, ‘Precipitation’, in Aubert, E. J. and Richards, T. L. (eds.), IFYGL - The International Field Year for the Great Lakes, U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Ann Arbor.Google Scholar
  37. WMO: 1981, Joint WMO/ICSU/UNEP meeting on the Assessment of the Role of CO 2 on Climate Variations and their Impact, Joint Planning Staff, WMO, Geneva.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© D. Reidel Publishing Company 1986

Authors and Affiliations

  • Stewart J. Cohen
    • 1
  1. 1.Canadian Climate Centre, Environment CanadaDownsviewCanada

Personalised recommendations