Abstract
The ecological outcome of atmospheric and climate change will depend on the rate of such change relative to the rate at which the biota can respond. Change in community structure and composition, and in landscapes and soils, will mostly come about through changes in the frequencies of extreme events. Much of the Southern Hemisphere has incomplete vegetative cover and landscape dynamics (horizontal redistribution of water and nutrients) is a primary ecological determinant which will be significantly altered under a shifting rainfall regime. Predicting vegetation change requires resolving the problems of lag effects, extreme events, the direct effects of increased CO2, secondary effects (e.g. changed fire regimes) and interactive effects of spatial variation. Some Southern Hemisphere examples are presented. Changes in fauna will depend mostly on changes to habitat. In the case of many invertebrate pest species, however, including disease vectors, an increase in minimum temperatures will have significant effects on their distribution and abundance (e.g. locusts, screw-worm fly, the cotton pest Heliothus, tsetse fly, malaria).
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Walker, B.H. Ecological consequences of atmospheric and climate change. Climatic Change 18, 301–316 (1991). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00139003
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00139003