Public Choice

, Volume 88, Issue 1, pp 115–125

The 1992, 1994 and 1996 elections: A comment and a forecast

  • Alberto Alesina
  • John Londregan
  • Howard Rosenthal

DOI: 10.1007/BF00130413

Cite this article as:
Alesina, A., Londregan, J. & Rosenthal, H. Public Choice (1996) 88: 115. doi:10.1007/BF00130413


A model of the two-way relationship between elections and the economy, previously estimated on historical data for 1916–1988, is applied to the United States elections of 1992, 1994, and 1996. The 1992 result was a surprise to the model since the economy had performed reasonably well that election year. The midterm elections of 1994 were accurately forecast. The Republicans took control of Congress not because of unusual circumstances but because of a normal midterm cycle. President Clinton's chances in 1996 look dim given the current modest growth rate and an electoral bias favoring Republican presidential candidates. But an alternative model, keyed more to the voters choosing Clinton to balance the Republican Congress, gives him a reasonable chance of reelection.

Copyright information

© Kluwer Academic Publishers 1996

Authors and Affiliations

  • Alberto Alesina
    • 1
  • John Londregan
    • 2
  • Howard Rosenthal
    • 3
  1. 1.Department of EconomicsHarvard UniversityCambridge
  2. 2.Department of Political ScienceUCLALos Angeles
  3. 3.Department of PoliticsPrinceton UniversityPrinceton

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