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Relationship between the Fluence of Magnetospheric Electrons with Energies above 2 MeV and Geomagnetic and Interplanetary Characteristics in 1987–2021

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Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences: Physics Aims and scope

Abstract

Coefficients of correlation are calculated for the daily electron fluence, solar wind velocity, and the Ар-index of geomagnetic activity with different delays, along with electron fluences obtained for subsequent days using a dataset from 35 years (1987–2021) of measuring magnetospheric electron fluxes with energies of more than 2 MeV in geostationary orbits, solar wind velocity, and geomagnetic activity. A three-parameter model is developed that allows the fluence of high-energy magnetospheric electrons for the next day to be predicted on the basis of the prehistory of the behavior of the fluence, data on the Ap-index of geomagnetic activity, and measurements of the solar wind speed. Model calculations are in good agreement with experimental data with a high coefficient of correlation (0.82) for the period 1987–2021.

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Funding

This work was supported by the Science Committee of the RK Ministry of Education and Science, project no. АР08855916; and by the Aerospace Committee of the RK Ministry of Digital Development, Innovation, and the Aerospace Industry, program no. BR11265408.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of the Ionosphere, 050020, Almaty, Kazakhstan

    O. N. Kryakunova, A. F. Yakovets, I. L. Tsepakina, B. B. Seifullina & N. F. Nikolayevskiy

  2. Lebedev Physical Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, 119991, Moscow, Russia

    O. N. Kryakunova

  3. Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radio Wave Propagation, Russian Academy of Sciences, 108840, Moscow, Russia

    A. V. Belov, A. A. Abunin, M. A. Abunina & N. S. Shlyk

Authors
  1. O. N. Kryakunova
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  2. A. V. Belov
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  3. A. F. Yakovets
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  4. A. A. Abunin
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  5. I. L. Tsepakina
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  6. B. B. Seifullina
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  7. M. A. Abunina
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  8. N. F. Nikolayevskiy
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  9. N. S. Shlyk
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to O. N. Kryakunova.

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The authors declare they have no conflicts of interest.

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Translated by G. Dedkov

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Kryakunova, O.N., Belov, A.V., Yakovets, A.F. et al. Relationship between the Fluence of Magnetospheric Electrons with Energies above 2 MeV and Geomagnetic and Interplanetary Characteristics in 1987–2021. Bull. Russ. Acad. Sci. Phys. 86, 1532–1536 (2022). https://doi.org/10.3103/S106287382212019X

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.3103/S106287382212019X

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