Abstract
The problem of selecting the optimum system of models for forecasting short-term railway traffic volumes is considered. The historical data is the daily volume of railway traffic between pairs of stations for different types of cargo. The given time series are highly volatile, noisy, and nonstationary. A system is proposed that selects the optimum superpositioning of forecasting models with respect to features of the historical data. A model of sliding averages, exponential and kernel-smoothing models, the ARIMA model, Croston’s method, and LSTM neural networks are considered as candidates for inclusion in superpositioning.
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Original Russian Text © N.D. Uvarov, M.P. Kuznetsov, A.S. Malkova, K.V. Rudakov, V.V. Strijov, 2018, published in Vestnik Moskovskogo Universiteta, Seriya 15: Vychislitel’naya Matematika i Kibernetika, 2018, No. 4, pp. 41–50.
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Uvarov, N.D., Kuznetsov, M.P., Malkova, A.S. et al. Selecting the Superpositioning of Models for Railway Freight Forecasting. MoscowUniv.Comput.Math.Cybern. 42, 186–193 (2018). https://doi.org/10.3103/S027864191804009X
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.3103/S027864191804009X