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Solar on the rise: How cost declines and grid integration shape solar’s growth potential in the United States

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Abstract

During the past decade, solar power has experienced transformative price declines, enabling it to grow to supply 1% of U.S. and world electricity. Addressing grid integration challenges, increasing grid flexibility, and further reducing cost will enable even greater potential for solar as an electricity source.

During the past decade, solar power has experienced transformative price declines, enabling it to become a viable electricity source that is supplying 1% of U.S. and world electricity. Further cost reductions are expected to enable substantially greater solar deployment, and new Department of Energy cost targets for utility-scale photovoltaics (PV) and concentrating solar thermal power are $0.03/kW h and $0.05/kW h by 2030, respectively. However, cost reductions are no longer the only significant challenge for PV-addressing grid integration challenges and increasing grid flexibility are critical as the penetration of PV electricity on the grid increases. The development of low cost energy storage is particularly synergistic with low cost PV, as cost declines in each technology are expected to support greater market opportunities for the other.

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Acknowledgment

We would like to thank Paul Basore for his contributions to the iso-LCOE modeling (Fig. 8).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. The United States Department of Energy, Solar Energy Technologies Office, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Washington, D.C., 20585, USA

    Rebecca Jones-Albertus

  2. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Strategic Energy Analysis Center, Golden, Colorado, and Washington, D.C., 20024, USA

    Wesley Cole, Paul Denholm, David Feldman, Michael Woodhouse & Robert Margolis

Authors
  1. Rebecca Jones-Albertus
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  2. Wesley Cole
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  3. Paul Denholm
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  4. David Feldman
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  5. Michael Woodhouse
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  6. Robert Margolis
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Correspondence to Rebecca Jones-Albertus.

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Jones-Albertus, R., Cole, W., Denholm, P. et al. Solar on the rise: How cost declines and grid integration shape solar’s growth potential in the United States. MRS Energy & Sustainability 5, 3 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1557/mre.2018.4

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