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Model to Predict Cause-Specific Mortality in Patients with Head and Neck Adenoid Cystic Carcinoma: A Competing Risk Analysis

  • Head and Neck Oncology
  • Published:
Annals of Surgical Oncology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Purpose

The main objective of this study was to evaluate the cumulative incidence of cause-specific death and other causes of death for patients with head and neck adenoid cystic carcinoma (ACC). The secondary aim was to model the probability of cause-specific death and build a competing risk nomogram to predict cause-specific mortality for this disease.

Methods

Data were extracted from the US National Cancer Institute’s Surveillance Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-18 dataset. The study cohort included patients with a diagnosis of primary head and neck ACC during the period 2004–2013. We calculated the cumulative incidence function (CIF) for cause-specific death and other causes of death, and constructed the Fine and Gray’s proportional subdistribution hazard model, as well as a competing-risk nomogram based on Fine and Gray’s model, to predict the probability of cause-specific death for patients with head and neck ACC.

Results

After data selection, 1435 cases were included for analysis. Five-year cumulative incidence of cause-specific death was 17.4% (95% confidence interval [CI] 15.1–19.8%) and cumulative incidence of other causes of death was 5.8% (95% CI 4.4–7.4%). Predictors of cause-specific death for head and neck ACC included age, tumor size, advanced T stage, positive lymph node, distant metastasis, and surgery. The nomogram was well-calibrated, and had good discriminative ability.

Conclusion

The large sample allowed us to construct a reliable predictive model for rare malignancy. The model performance was good, with a concordance index of 0.79, and the nomogram can provide useful individualized predictive information for patients with head and neck ACC.

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Acknowledgement

The authors would like to thank the NCI for open access to their SEER database. The opinions or views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not represent the opinions or recommendations of the NCI.

Disclosure

Weidong Shen, Naoko Sakamoto, and Limin Yang have no potential conflicts of interest.

Funding

No Grant funding was received for this study.

Author information

Author notes

  1. Weidong Shen and Limin Yang have contributed equally to this work.

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Otolaryngology, Department of Otolaryngology – Head and Neck Surgery, Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, 100853, China

    Weidong Shen MD, PhD

  2. Department of Epidemiology Research, Toho University, Tokyo, 143-0015, Japan

    Naoko Sakamoto PhD

  3. Division of Allergy, Department of Medical Subspecialties, National Center for Child Health and Development, Tokyo, 157-8535, Japan

    Limin Yang MD, PhD

  4. Medical Support Center for Japan Environment and Children’s Study (JECS), National Center for Child Health and Development, Tokyo, 157-8535, Japan

    Limin Yang MD, PhD

Authors
  1. Weidong Shen MD, PhD
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  2. Naoko Sakamoto PhD
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  3. Limin Yang MD, PhD
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Limin Yang MD, PhD.

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Shen, W., Sakamoto, N. & Yang, L. Model to Predict Cause-Specific Mortality in Patients with Head and Neck Adenoid Cystic Carcinoma: A Competing Risk Analysis. Ann Surg Oncol 24, 2129–2136 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1245/s10434-017-5861-z

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1245/s10434-017-5861-z

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