Spatial Differentiation of the Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in Akmola Oblast

Abstract

The long-term dynamics of the average air temperatures and amounts of annual precipitation confirms the reality of climate change since the 1970s on the territory of Akmola oblast, one of the leading agricultural regions in Kazakhstan. The structure of agricultural production in the oblast is dominated by the rainfed cultivation of grain crops, in particular, spring wheat, which is known to be extremely sensitive to climatic and weather conditions. Analysis of the climatic indicators for 1931–2019 based on available data from meteorological stations identified intraregional features of climate change that led to an increase in the yield of grain crops. Correlation analysis established a high dependence of productivity on the climatic conditions of the warm period. If the current level of farming culture and the continued growth of average temperatures persist, the productivity in the dry-steppe and southern steppe regions of the oblast is expected to decrease. In the northern steppe regions, more intense trends in the climatic indicators of the cold months favor an increase in yields and an expansion of agricultural production. Intraregional differences in the intensity of climatic trends must be taken into account for the further development of agriculture in Akmola oblast. The following measures are proposed in order to avoid the negative consequences of climate change: the introduction of adaptation technologies, the diversification of agricultural production, the development of organic agriculture, and active support for agricultural producers.