A Method of Forecasting Solar Activity Based on Radio Astronomical Observations

Abstract

We present the results of forecasting flare activity based on the data from microwave spectropolarimetric observations of active regions (ARs) obtained with the RATAN-600 radio telescope and the X-ray data from the GOES satellite as well as monitoring data. The method is designed for short-term (1–3-days) flare forecasts. Proton events are considered as part of the general flare problem. Obtaining a reliable forecast is a difficult process in view of the multi-parameter and multi-dimensional system of plasma parameter variations and multiple non-linear interconnections.We used a modified Tanaka–Enome criterion, as well a database of observational material collected over many years. The forecasting efficiency was analyzed depending on the threshold values of the criterion. We show that the quality of the radio astronomical forecast is determined by the level of sensitivity of the detector at short centimeterwavelengths and by the solar activity level.