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Target Scenario of Low Greenhouse Gas Emissions Socio-Economic Development of Russia for the Period until 2060

  • CRITICAL INNOVATION PROJECT OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE ON CLIMATE
  • Published:
Studies on Russian Economic Development Aims and scope

Abstract—

The article considers methodological and practical issues of assessing the effects of measures aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the context of development and implementation of a strategy of Russia’s socio-economic development. The authors substantiate the relevance of investments in decarbonization measures, as well as the associated benefits (demand for the products of fund-creating industries) and costs (price increases and negative consumer reaction). The target scenario of low greenhouse gas emissions socio-economic development of Russia is based on a predictive and analytical toolkit based on the input/output method and on the database of the National Inventory of Anthropogenic Emissions. The target scenario combines an active economic policy with ambitious actions towards reducing net emissions: within the scenario, the average annual growth rate of Russia’s GDP is 2.6% and carbon neutrality is achieved by 2060. A more aggressive scenario of ensuring carbon neutrality by 2050 is characterized by significantly worse indicators of economic efficiency.

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Notes

  1. Latest version of the inventory. http://www.igce.ru/performance/publishing/reports/.

  2. The Ministry of Economic Development of Russia has prepared a draft Strategy for Long-Term Low Greenhouse Gas Emissions Development of Russia for the Period until 2050, 2020. https://economy.gov.ru/material/news/minekonomrazvitiya_-rossii_podgotovilo_proekt_strategii_dolgosrochnogo_razvitiya_rossii_s_nizkim_urovnem_vybrosov_parnikovyh_gazov_do_2050_goda_.html.

  3. Draft of the Strategy for Low Greenhouse Gas Emissions Socio-Economic Development of the Russian Federation for the period until 2050 dated August 23, 2021. https://cenef-xxi.ru/articles/proekt-strategii-socialno-ekonomicheskogo-razvitiya-rossijskoj-federacii-s-nizkim-urovnem-vybrosov-parni-kovyh-gazov-do-2050-goda.

  4. B. N. Porfiriev, A. A. Shirov, A. Yu. Kolpakov, and E. A. Edinak, “Opportunities and risks of climate regulation policy in Russia,” Vopr. Ekon, No. 1, 72–89 (2022). https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2022-1-72-89.

  5. http://static.government.ru/media/files/ADKkCzp3fWO32e2-yA0BhtIpyzWfHaiUa.pdf.

  6. A. R. Sayapova and A. A. Shirov, Fundamentals of the Input/Output Method: University Textbook (MAKS, Moscow, 2019) [in Russian]. doi 10.29003/m801.978-5-317-06263-7.

  7. Potential Growth Opportunities of the Russian Economy: Analysis and Forecast, Research Report of the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Ed. by A. A. Shirov (Artik, Moscow, 2022). doi 10.47711/sr2-2022.

  8. The classification corresponds to the Order of the Government of the Russian Federation no. 449 dated March 24, 2022 On Approval of the Rules for Assessing the Achievement of Targets for Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions….

  9. Capital intensity is calculated as the ratio of total investments over the entire forecast period to the associated reduction in net GHG emissions by 2060.

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Funding

The study was supported under a grant in the form of subsidies from the federal budget for scientific research and development as part of the Critical Innovation Project of National Significance “Unified National Monitoring System for Climatically Active Substances” (agreement between the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation and the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences on provision of grants from the federal budget in the form of subsidies in accordance with item 4 of Article 78.1 of the Budget Code of the Russian Federation no. 139-15-2023-003 dated March 1, 2023).

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  1. Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences, 117418, Moscow, Russia

    A. A. Shirov & A. Yu. Kolpakov

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  1. A. A. Shirov
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  2. A. Yu. Kolpakov
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Correspondence to A. Yu. Kolpakov.

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Translated by A. Ovchinnikova

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Shirov, A.A., Kolpakov, A.Y. Target Scenario of Low Greenhouse Gas Emissions Socio-Economic Development of Russia for the Period until 2060. Stud. Russ. Econ. Dev. 34, 758–768 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1134/S1075700723060151

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