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The Macroeconomic Impact of the New Geopolitical Deal on the French Economy

  • ECONOMIC POLICY
  • Published:
Studies on Russian Economic Development Aims and scope

Abstract

French economy has not still existed form COVID-19 consequences that it has been hit by economic consequences of the war in Ukraine and the new geopolitical deal. So far, through an extensive aid mechanism the government has sheltered the French economy of the worse consequences, mostly on energy prices and inflation, of the new situation. Nevertheless, the cost of this aid has been high and could be difficult to sustain. If economic results for 2022 were quite satisfactory there is some important uncertainties looming on the future. The combination of reduced household demand, as increase in production costs seen in many sectors has not yet translated into a corresponding increase in consumer prices, and high energy prices could push the economy into a depression in 2023. The “enchanted parenthesis” known by the French economy is therefore set to end with the beginning of 2023. The extent of the coming recession remains very difficult to estimate.

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Notes

  1. https://www.tresor.economie.gouv.fr/Articles/2022/11/16/perspectives-economiques-2023-2024-une-stagflation-prevue-mais-poursuite-de-la-consolidation-des-finances-publiques.

  2. https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce#/ et Bank of England. How has the COVID affected Household Savings. 25 novembre 2020. https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/bank-overground/2020/how-has-covid-affected-household-savings.

  3. https://www.economie.gouv.fr/france-2030.

  4. https://www.economie.gouv.fr/plan-de-relance.

  5. https://www.douane.gouv.fr/actualites/le-chiffre-du-commerce-exterieur-exterieur-de-la-france-octobre-2022.

  6. https://www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques/6654688?sommaire=6654723.

  7. https://www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques/6654688?sommaire=6654723.

  8. https://www.gouvernement.fr/les-priorites/france-relance.

  9. https://www.ouest-france.fr/economie/entreprises/crise-du-coronavirus/covid-19-la-france-en-tete-des-aides-publiques-versees-aux-entreprises-dans-l-union-europeenne-7188737. Voir aussi: https://www.economie.gouv.fr/covid19-soutien-entreprises/crise-sanitaire-mesures-soutien-entreprises-impactees-reprise-epidemique.

  10. https://entreprendre.service-public.fr/vosdroits/F31326.

  11. https://www.cgt.fr/comm-de-presse/le-cice-effet-daubaine-grande-echelle-pour-les-entreprises.

  12. Voir l’allocution du Président Emmanuel Macron du 12 juillet 2021. https://www.elysee.fr/emmanuel-macron/2021/07/12/-adresse-aux-francais-12-juillet-2021 ou celle prononcée lors de présentation du “Plan France-2030” le 12 octobre 2021. https://www.elysee.fr/emmanuel-macron/2021/10/12/presentation-du-plan-france-2030.

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  1. Higher School of Social Sciences and Centre for Industrial Models, Higher School of Social Sciences, 75006, Paris, France

    Jacques Sapir

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Jacques Sapir The Macroeconomic Impact of the New Geopolitical Deal on the French Economy. Stud. Russ. Econ. Dev. 34, 308–319 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1134/S1075700723030140

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