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The Effect of Moscow Megapolis on Warm-Season Precipitation Depending on Large-Scale Atmospheric Conditions

  • STUDIES OF THE PROCESSES OF INTERACTION BETWEEN LAND AND THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE HYDROLOGICAL EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
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Abstract

The effect of Moscow megapolis on precipitation of different intensity under contrasting physical–synoptic conditions was estimated. The analysis of long-term standard observations at weather stations in the Moscow Region and the data of high-resolution reanalysis ERA5 over 1988–2020 were used to demonstrate that the effect of the city on heavy precipitation is largest in the cases with higher static instability of the atmosphere, combined with a weak large-scale flow, high moisture content of the atmosphere, and the absence of pronounced frontal zones in the region. On the average over the study period, the excess of the total seasonal precipitation in Moscow relative to the background values over the Moscow region is 5.3%. It was found that the effect of the city on precipitation of various intensity is different: the precipitation of low and medium intensity was less in the city (statistically insignificant), while the heaviest precipitation (above 95 percentile) increased over the city by 11.6% above the background value.

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The authors are grateful to A.Yu. Mel’nichuk and V.E. Vikulin (Central Federal State Budgetary Institution “Central Administration of Hydrological and Environmental Monitoring”) for the presented data on precipitation at weather stations of the Moscow region and for the access to synoptic analysis archive of the Central DHMS of Russia; and to colleagues from the MSU Meteorological Observatory for presented data on precipitation.

Funding

This study was supported by the Non-Profit Foundation for the Development of Science and Education “Intellect” (collection of source data); Russian Science Foundation, project 18-77-10 076, processing reanalysis data to characterize the background atmospheric conditions; the RF Ministry of Science and Higher Education, contract 075-15-2021-574, data analysis.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Research Computing Center, Moscow State University, 119991, Moscow, Russia

    Yu. I. Yarinich, M. I. Varentsov & V. M. Stepanenko

  2. Faculty of Geography, Moscow State University, 119991, Moscow, Russia

    Yu. I. Yarinich, V. S. Platonov & V. M. Stepanenko

  3. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, 119017, Moscow, Russia

    Yu. I. Yarinich, M. I. Varentsov & A. V. Chernokulsky

  4. Moscow Center of Fundamental and Applied Mathematics, 119991, Moscow, Russia

    M. I. Varentsov & V. M. Stepanenko

  5. Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, 119017, Moscow, Russia

    A. V. Chernokulsky

  6. Russian Institute of Hydrometeorological Information–World Data Center, 249035, Obninsk, Russia

    S. G. Davletshin

  7. Russian State Agrarian University–Moscow Timiryazev Agricultural Academy, 127434, Moscow, Russia

    E. A. Dronova

Authors
  1. Yu. I. Yarinich
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  2. M. I. Varentsov
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  3. V. S. Platonov
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  4. V. M. Stepanenko
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  5. A. V. Chernokulsky
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  6. S. G. Davletshin
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  7. E. A. Dronova
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Correspondence to Yu. I. Yarinich.

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Yarinich, Y.I., Varentsov, M.I., Platonov, V.S. et al. The Effect of Moscow Megapolis on Warm-Season Precipitation Depending on Large-Scale Atmospheric Conditions. Water Resour 50, 699–708 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0097807823700094

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S0097807823700094

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