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Wintertime Arctic Oscillation Harbinger of Spring Floods in the Mouth Areas of the North-Eastern European Rivers

  • THE CURRENT STATE AND THE PROSPECTS OF RIVER MOUTH HYDROLOGY: TO THE 90TH ANNIVERSARY OF V. N. MIKHAILOV
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Abstract

Based on 1965–2020 series we have shown relationships between the features of the water runoff of the spring flood in mouths of large rivers of North-Eastern Europe and the wintertime phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). The positive phase of the wintertime AO is a harbinger of enhanced spring floods in the region. Enhanced winter advection of warm and humid Atlantic air during winters of the positive AO phase leads to increased wintertime snow accumulation and earlier onset of spring snowmelt. In the springs preceded by the positive AO wintertime events, floods come earlier and are more intensive. With a general increase in total volume of flood water runoff in years of the positive AO phase, its intra-seasonal redistribution occurs. Results from the study imply a possibility of early warning of enhanced spring floods based on the predictions of the wintertime positive AO events.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Zubov State Oceanographic Institute (SOI), Moscow, Russia

    O. V. Gorelits, E. A. Rakcheeva & G. S. Ermakova

  2. Research Institute for Basic Sciences, Pusan National University, Busan, Republic of Korea

    V. N. Kryjov

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  1. O. V. Gorelits
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  2. V. N. Kryjov
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  3. E. A. Rakcheeva
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  4. G. S. Ermakova
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Correspondence to O. V. Gorelits or V. N. Kryjov.

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Gorelits, O.V., Kryjov, V.N., Rakcheeva, E.A. et al. Wintertime Arctic Oscillation Harbinger of Spring Floods in the Mouth Areas of the North-Eastern European Rivers. Water Resour 49, 836–844 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0097807822050049

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