Abstract—
Quantitative estimates of the relationship of the snow cover and sea ice extent in the Northern Hemisphere with surface air temperature in the annual cycle and interannual variability are obtained from modern satellite data and reanalysis data over the 1979–2020 period. The results indicate a general significant coherence and negative correlation between surface air temperature and the snow cover and sea ice extent not only in the annual cycle, but also for most months in the interannual variability. At the same time, specific features appear in the fall months, associated with regional features of the variability of temperature and the snow cover during the season of its formation in Eurasia and North America. For the winter months, an increase in the absolute value of parameters of the sensitivity of the snow cover and sea ice extent to temperature variations in recent decades and of the coefficients of their correlation is noted, while for the warm months, the opposite changes are observed. Along with a statistically significant negative correlation of the total snow cover and sea ice extent with variations in the hemispheric surface air temperature in the annual cycle, cross-wavelet analysis revealed a statistically significant negative correlation for the longest-term interdecadal variations with a manifestation in recent years of significant anticorrelation for interannual variations, in particular for variations with periods typical for El Niño events.
Similar content being viewed by others
REFERENCES
IPCC, 2021. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribut9ion of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Ed. by V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, A. Pirani, (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 2021).
Second Roshydromet Assessment Report on Climate Changes and Their Impact in the Territory of the Russian Federation (Rosgidromet, Moscow, 2014) [in Russian].
M. I. Budyko, Climate in the Past and Future (Gidrometeoizdat, Leningrad, 1980) [in Russian].
I. I. Mokhov, Diagnostics of the Climatic System Structure (Gidrometeoizdat, St. Petersburg, 1993) [in Russian].
V. F. Zakharov, Sea Ice in the Climate System (Gidrometeoizdat, St. Petersburg, 1993) [in Russian].
A. V. Kislov, Climate in the Past, Present, and Future (MAIK Nauka/Interperiodika, Moscow, 2001) [in Russian].
Meteorological and Geophysical Research (Paulsen, Moscow, 2011) [in Russian].
R. Barry and T. Y. Gan, The Global Cryosphere: Past, Present and Future (Cambridge Univ. Press, New York, 2011).
Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic (SWIPA) 2017. Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP, Oslo, Norway, 2017).
N. L. Bindoff, P. A. Stott, K. M. AchutaRao, M. R. Allen, N. Gillett, D. Gutzler, K. Hansingo, G. Hegerl, Y. Hu, S. Jain, I. I. Mokhov, J. Overland, J. Perlwitz, R. Sebbari, and X. Zhang, “Detection and attribution of climate change: From global to regional,” in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Ed. by T. F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex, and P. M. Midgley (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 2013), pp. 867–952.
The Formation and Dynamics of Contemporary Arctic Climate, Ed. by G. V. Alekseev (Gidrometeoizdat, St. Petersburg, 2004) [in Russian].
I. I. Mokhov, “Temperature sensitivity of the cryosphere area of the Northern Hemisphere,” Izv. Akad. Nauk SSSR: Fiz. Atmos. Okeana 20 (2), 136–143 (1984).
P. Ya. Groisman, T. R. Karl, R. W. Knight, and G. L. Stenchikov, “Changes of snow cover, temperature, and radiative heat balance over the Northern Hemisphere,” J. Clim. 7, 1633–1656 (1994).
A. N. Krenke, L. M. Kitaev, and D. V. Turkov, “Climatic role of snow changes in the warming period,” Izv. Ross. Akad. Nauk: Ser. Geogr., No. 4, 44–52 (2001).
A. B. Shmakin, “Climatic characteristics of snow cover in Northern Eurasia and their changes in recent decades,” Led Sneg, No. 1, 43–57 (2010).
I. I. Mokhov, V. A. Semenov, V. Ch. Khon, and F. A. Pogarskii, “Changes in the propagation of Arctic sea ice and related chemical effects: Diagnostics and simulation,” Led Sneg, No. 2, 53–62 (2013).
I. I. Mokhov, “Contemporary climate changes in the Arctic,” Herald, Russ. Acad. Sci. 85 (3), 265–271 (2015).
G. Alekseev, N. Glok, and A. Smirnov, “On assessment of the relationship between changes of sea ice extent and climate in the Arctic,” Int. J. Climatol. 36 (9), 3407–3412 (2016).
V. V. Popova, A. V. Shiryaeva, and P. A. Morozova, “Changes in the characteristics of snow cover on the territory of Russia in 1950–2013: Regional features and relationship with global warming,” Kriosfera Zemli 22 (4), 65–75 (2018).
V. N. Malinin and P. A. Vainovskii, “Comparison between parameters of interannual variations in sea-ice area of the Northern and Southern hemispheres,” Uch. Zap. RGGMU, No. 57, 77–90 (2019).
I. I. Mokhov, “Features of contemporary changes in the Arctic and their consequences,” Probl. Arkt. Antarkt 66 (4), 446–462 (2020).
I. I. Mokhov and M. R. Parfenova, “Features of Antarctic and Arctic sea ice in recent decades against the background of global and regional climate changes,” Vopr. Geogr., No. 150, 304–319 (2020).
V. A. Semenov and T. A. Matveeva, “Arctic sea ice in the first half of the 20th century: Temperature-based spatiotemporal reconstruction,” Izv., Atmos. Ocean. Phys. 56 (5), 534–538 (2020).
I. I. Mokhov and M. R. Parfenova, “Relationship of the extent of Antarctic and Arctic ice with temperature changes, 1979–2020,” Dokl. Earth Sci. 496 (1), 66–71 (2021).
I. I. Mokhov and M. R. Parfenova, “Changes in the snow cover extent in Eurasia from satellite data in relation to hemispheric and regional temperature changes,” Dokl. Earth Sci. 501 (1), 963–968 (2021).
I. I. Mokhov, “Climate change: Causes, risks, consequences, and problems of adaptation and regulation,” Herald Russ. Acad. Sci. 92 (1) 1–11 (2022).
I. I. Mokhov and M. R. Parfenova, “Relationships between satellite-derived snow cover extent in the Northern Hemisphere and surface air temperature,” Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol. 47 (2), 98–106 (2022).
D. A. Robinson, K. F. Dewey, and R. R. Heim, Jr., “Global snow cover monitoring: An update,” Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 74, 1689–1696 (1993).
T. W. Estilow, A. H. Young, and D. A. Robinson, “A long-term Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent data record for climate studies and monitoring,” Earth Syst. Sci. Data 7, 137–142 (2015).
F. Fetterer, K. Knowles, W. N. Meier, M. Savoie, and A. K. Windnagel, Sea Ice Index, Version 3 (National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder, Colo., 2017). https://doi.org/10.7265/N5K072F8.
H. Hersbach, D. Bell, P. Berrisford, S. Hirahara, A. Horányi, J. Muñoz-Sabater, J. Nicolas, C. Peubey, R. Radu, D. Schepers, A. Simmons, C. Soci, S. Abdalla, X. Abellan, G. Balsamo, et al., “The ERA5 global reanalysis,” Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 146A (730), 1999–2049 (2020).
S. Jevrejeva, J. Moore, and A. Grinsted, “Influence of the Arctic Oscillation and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on ice conditions in the Baltic Sea: The wavelet approach,” J. Geophys. Res. 108 (D21), 4677 (2003). https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JD003417
A. Robock, “The seasonal cycle of snow cover, sea ice and surface albedo,” Mon. Weather Rev. 108 (3), 267–285 (1980).
J. Kukla, “Recent changes in snow and ice,” in Climate Change, Ed. by J. Gribbin (Cambridge Univ. Press, New York, 1978), pp. 114–129.
R. J. Curran, R. Wexler, and M. L. Nack, Albedo Climatology Analysis and the Determination of Fractional Cloud Cover, NASA Tech. Memo. 79576, GSFC, Greenbelt, Md., 1980.
O. N. Bulygina, P. Ya. Groisman, V. N. Razuvaev, and N. N. Korshunova, “Changes in snow cover characteristics over Northern Eurasia since 1966,” Environ. Res. Lett. 6, 045204 (2011).
J. Foster, M. Owe, and A. Rango, “Snow cover and temperature relationships in North America and Eurasia,” J. Clim. Appl. Meteorol. 22, 460–469 (1983).
R. D. Brown and C. Derksen, “Is Eurasian October snow cover extent increasing?,” Environ. Res. Lett. 8, 024006 (2013).
R. Connolly, M. Connolly, W. Soon, et al., “Northern Hemisphere snow-cover trends (1967–2018): A comparison between climate models and observations,” Geosciences 9, 135 (2019).
I. I. Mokhov, A. V. Chernokulsky, and A. M. Osipov, “Atmospheric centers of action in the Northern and Southern hemispheres: Features and variability,” Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol. 45 (11), 749–761 (2020).
A. N. Krenke and L. M. Kitaev, “Impact of ENSO on snow cover in the formed Soviet Union,” GEWEX News 8, 5–16 (1998).
I. I. Mokhov and A. V. Timazhev, “Atmospheric blocking and changes in its frequency in the 21st century simulated with the ensemble of climate models,” Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol. 44 (6), 369–377 (2019).
G. R. North, “Analytical solution to a simple climate model with diffuse heat transport,” J. Atmos. Sci. 32 (7), 1301–1307 (1975).
G. R. North, “Theory of energy-balance climate models,” J. Atmos. Sci. 32 (11), 2033–2043 (1975).
G. S. Golitsyn and I. I. Mokhov, “Assessment of the sensitivity and role of clouds in simple climate models,” Izv. Akad. Nauk SSSR, Fiz. Atmos. Okeana 14 (8), 803–814 (1978).
I. I. Mokhov, “Response of a simple energy-balance climate model to changes in its parameters,” Izv. Akad. Nauk SSSR, Fiz. Atmos. Okeana 15 (4), 375–383 (1979).
S. Manabe and R. J. Stouffer, “Sensitivity of a global climate model in an increase of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere,” J. Geophys. Res. 85 (C10), 5529–5554 (1980).
I. I. Mokhov and M. R. Parfenova, “Link of the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extent with El Niño phenomena,” in Research Activities in Atmospheric and Oceanic Modelling, Ed. by E. Astakhova (2019), WSRP Rep. No. 12/2019, pp. 2.11–2.12.
Funding
This work was supported by the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation, agreement no. 075-15-2020-776.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
Additional information
Translated by N. Tretyakova
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Mokhov, I.I., Parfenova, M.R. The Relationship between Snow Cover and Sea Ice Extent and Temperature Changes in the Northern Hemisphere Based on Data for Recent Decades. Izv. Atmos. Ocean. Phys. 58, 353–363 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0001433822040107
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S0001433822040107