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Variation of Northern Hemispheric Wintertime Storm Tracks under Future Climate Change in INM-CM5 Simulations

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Abstract—

The response of Northern Hemisphere storm tracks (North Atlantic and North Pacific) to climate change and to the strengthening and weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex is investigated in simulations of the Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences Climate Model version 5 (INM-CM5) under phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project for the moderate (SSP2-4.5) and severe (SSP5-8.5) greenhouse gas emission scenarios (2015–2100). A significant northward shift of both storm tracks and some strengthening of the North Pacific and weakening of the North Atlantic storm track are expected by the late 21st century under SSP2-4.5. In SSP5-85, the response of both storm tracks manifests itself mainly through amplification and, to a lesser extent, through a poleward. Moreover, there is a difference in the response of the North Pacific and North Atlantic storm tracks to the strengthening and weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex under different climate conditions. Changes in the storm tracks associated with eddy moisture flux demonstrate a character comparable to changes in their intensity, both due to an increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and due to changes in the stratospheric polar vortex.

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

We thank the anonymous reviewer for valuable comments and suggestions.

Funding

This work was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, project no. 19-05-00370.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, 634055, Tomsk, Russia

    Yu. V. Martynova

  2. Central Areological Observatory, 141707, Dolgoprudny, Moscow oblast, Russia

    P. N. Vargin

  3. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, 119017, Moscow, Russia

    P. N. Vargin

  4. Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences, 119333, Moscow, Russia

    E. M. Volodin

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  1. Yu. V. Martynova
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Translated by N. Tretyakova

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Martynova, Y.V., Vargin, P.N. & Volodin, E.M. Variation of Northern Hemispheric Wintertime Storm Tracks under Future Climate Change in INM-CM5 Simulations. Izv. Atmos. Ocean. Phys. 58, 208–218 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0001433822030082

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