Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

On Methods of Short-Term Earthquake Prediction Based on Monitoring the Hydrogeodeformation Field

  • Published:
Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The permanent analysis of the hydrogeodeformation (HGD) field is one promising direction in the field of predicting strong earthquakes. As a result of long-term monitoring of the HGD field, it has been found that the underground hydrosphere contains extensive information about changes in geodynamic stresses and the evolution of deformation processes in the Earth’s crust. The development of short-term earthquake prediction methods has been preceded by long-term studies aimed at improving the HGD field monitoring. This paper presents examples of successful predictions of the place, time, and magnitude for a number of strong earthquakes. The examples are obtained based on a complex analysis of the variations in the HGD field. Proposals on the use of these methods for short-term prediction of strong seismic events in the near-real-time mode are formulated.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1.
Fig. 2.
Fig. 3.
Fig. 4.
Fig. 5.
Fig. 6.
Fig. 7.

Similar content being viewed by others

REFERENCES

  1. Aref’ev, S.S., Epitsentral’nye seismologicheskie issledovaniya (Epicentral Seismological Studies), Moscow: Akademkniga, 2003.

  2. Aref’ev, S.S., Bykova, V.V., Gileva, N.A., Masal’skii, O.K., Matveev, I.V., Matveeva, N.V., Melnikova, V.I., and Chechel’nitskii, V.V., Preliminary results of epicentral observations of the Kultuk earthquake of August 27, 2008, Vopr. inzh. seismol., 2008, vol. 35, no. 4, pp. 5–15.

  3. Aref’ev, S.S., Pletnev, K.G., Tatevossian, R.E., Aptekman, Zh.Ya., Vasil’ev, V.Yu., Delitsyn, L.L., Romanov, A.A., Osher, B.V., Parini, I.E., Afim’ina, T.V., Shilova, N.E., Shumilina, L.S., Dzhavakhishvili, Z., Cisternas, A., Haessler, H., Rivera, L., Dorbath, L., King, J., Fuenzalida, H., Owen, T., McCormack, D., Baker, K., Langer, Ch., Maier-Rosa, D. and Smith, P., The 1991 Racha earthquake: results of field seismological observations, Fiz. Zemli, 1993, no. 3, pp. 12–23.

  4. Belousov, T.P., Rachinskoe zemletryasenie 1991 goda i ego proyavlenie v rel’efe Bol’shogo Kavkaza (1991 Racha Earthquake and Its Manifestation in Topography of the Greater Caucasus), Moscow: Svetoch plyus, 2009.

  5. Berzhinskii, Yu.A., Ordynskaya, A.P., Gladkov, A.S. Lunina, O.V., Berzhinskaya, L.P., Radziminovich, N.A., and Radziminovich, Ya.B., Application of the ESI-2007 scale for estimating the intensity of the Kultuk earthquake, August 27, 2008 (South Baikal), Seism. Instrum., 2010, vol. 46, no. 3, pp. 307–324.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Burmin, V.Yu., Aftershocks of the Racha earthquake of 29 April 1991, Vopr. Inzh. Seismol., 2016, vol. 43, no. 4, pp. 87–90. https://doi.org/10.21455/VIS2016.4-6

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Gabsatarova, I.P., Oni-II earthquake of September 7, 2009 with KP = 14.2 and MS = 5.8 (Georgia), in Zemletryaseniya Severnoi Evrazii, 2009 god (Earthquakes of Northern Eurasia in 2009), Obninsk: Geofiz. Sluzhba Ross. Akad. Nauk, 2015, pp. 325–333.

  8. Gzovskii, M.V., Matematika v geotektonike (Mathematics in Geotectonics), Moscow: Nedra, 1971.

  9. Kim, Ch.U., Mikhailov, V.I., Sen, R.S., and Semenova, E.P., The August 2, 2007, Nevelsk earthquake: Instrumental data analysis, Russ. J. Pac. Geol., 2009, vol. 28, no. 3, pp. 412–423.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Koff, G.L., Ivanova, A.M., Kondrat’eva, M.A., Chesnokova, I.V., Kim, Ch.O., Ten, S.M., and Malakhovskii, A.A., Nevelsk earthquakes on Sakhalin Island in August 17, 2006 and August 2, 2007: the results of a field macroseismic survey of the objects, Seism. Instrum., 2009, vol. 46, no. 4, pp. 325–340.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Konovalov, A.V., Nagornykh, T.V., Safonov, D.A., and Lomtev, V.L., Nevelsk earthquakes of August 2, 2007 and seismic setting in the southeastern margin of Sakhalin Island, Russ. J. Pac. Geol., 2015, vol. 9, no. 6, pp. 451–466.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Kulikov, G.V., and Ryzhov, A.A., Earthquake prediction based on hydrogeodeformation field monitoring data, Geodyn. Tectonophys., 2011, vol. 2, no. 2, pp. 194–207.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Kulikov, G.V., Lygin, A.M., and Ryzhov, A.A., Geodynamic situation assessment based on the energy parameters of the hydrogeodeformation field, Razved. Okhr. Nedr, 2013, no. 3, pp. 51–56.

  14. Kulikov, G.V., Lygin, A.M., and Ryzhov, A.A., The reaction of underground water to the tectonic waves from remote and strong earthquakes, Nauka Tekhnol. Razrab., 2016, vol. 95, no. 1, pp. 3–21.

    Google Scholar 

  15. Kulikov, G.V., Lygin, A.M., Spektor, S.V., and Rogozhin, E.A., On the increase of reliability of short-term earthquake prediction based on HGD field monitoring data, Sb. dokladov na XVII nauch.-prakt. konf. MChS Rossii (Procedings XVII Sci.-Pract. Conf. EMERCOM of Russia), 2018.

  16. Letnikov, F.A., Sinergetika geologicheskikh sistem (Synergetics of Geological Systems), Novosibirsk: Nauka, 1992.

  17. Lukk, A.A., Deshcherevskii, A.V., Sidorin, A.Ya. and Sidorin, I.A., Variatsii geofizicheskikh polei kak proyavlenie determinirovannogo khaosa vo fraktal’noi srede (Variations of Geophysical Fields as Manifestation of Determinate Chaos in Fractal Medium), Moscow: Ob”ed. Inst. Fiz. Zemli Ross. Akad. Nauk, 1996.

  18. Malovichko, A.A., Gabsatarova, I.P., Kolomiets, M.V., and Chepkunas, L.S., The catastrophic earthquake of April 25, 2015, in Nepal: Analysis of seismological data, Seism. Instrum., 2016, vol. 52, no. 3, pp. 195–206.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Mel’nikova, V.I., Gileva, N.A., Radziminovich, Ya.B., and Seredkina, A.I., The Kultuk earthquake of August 27, 2008, Mw = 6.3, I0 = 8–9 (South Baikal), in Zemletryaseniya Severnoi Evrazii, 2008 god (Earthquakes of Northern Eurasia in 2008), Obninsk: Geofiz. Sluzhba Ross. Akad. Nauk, 2014, pp. 386–408.

  20. Radziminovich, Ya.B., Imaev, V.S., Radziminovich, N.A., Ruzhich, V.V., Smekalin, O.P., and Chipizubov, A.V., The August 27, 2008, MW = 6.3, Kultuk earthquake effects in the near-epicenter zone: Macroseismic survey results, Seism. Instrum., 2010, vol. 36, no. 1, pp. 107–120.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Rogozhin, E.A., On the project of a new macroseismic EEE scale, in Zemletryaseniya Severnoi Evrazii, 2003 god (Earthquakes of Northern Eurasia in 2003), Obninsk: Geofiz. Sluzhba Ross. Akad. Nauk, 2009, pp. 396–402.

  22. Rogozhin, E.A., The source structure of the 11.03.2011 Tohoku earthquake (M = 9.0) in Japan: Its macroseismic, seismological, and geodynamical manifestations, Vopr. Inzh. Seismol., 2011, vol. 38, no. 1, pp. 5–20.

    Google Scholar 

  23. Rogozhin, E.A., Tectonic position and seismic and geological manifestations of the Oni-II earthquake (September 7, 2009) focus on the Southern slope of the Greater Caucasus, Geol. Geofiz. Yuga Rossii, 2017, no. 4, pp. 109–115.

  24. Rogozhin, E.A., Lutikov, A.I., and Shen, T., Tectonic position and geological and seismic manifestations of the Gorkha earthquake of April 25, 2015, in Nepal, Geotectonics, 2016, vol. 50, no. 5, pp. 522–533.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. Sadovskii, M.A., On the natural fragmentation of rocks, Dokl. Akad. Nauk SSSR, 1979, vol. 247, no. 4, pp. 829–831.

    Google Scholar 

  26. Sadovskii, M.A., On the significance and meaning of discreteness in geophysics, in Diskretnye svoistva geofizicheskoi sredy (Discrete Properties of Geophysical Medium), Sadovskii, M.A., Ed., Moscow: Nauka, 1989, pp. 5–14.

  27. Sadovskii, M.A., Izbrannye trudy: Geofizika i fizika vzryva (Selected Works: Geophysics and Explosion Physics), Moscow: Nauka, 2004.

  28. Sadovskii, M.A. and Pisarenko, V.F., Randomness and instability in geophysical processes, Fiz. Zemli, 1989, no. 2, pp. 3–12.

  29. Sadovskii, M.A. and Pisarenko, V.F., Seismicheskii protsess v blokovoi srede (Seismic Process in a Fragmented Medium), Moscow: Nauka, 1991.

  30. Sadovskii, M.A., Golubeva, T.V., Pisarenko, V.F., and Shnirman, M.G., Characteristic sizes of a rock and hierarchic properties of seismicity, Izv. Akad. Nauk SSSR,Fiz. Zemli, 1984, no. 20, pp. 87–96.

  31. Sadovskii, M.A., Golubeva, T.V., and Narkunskaya, G.S., Structure of the geophysical medium and the seismic process, in Prognoz zemletryasenii (Earthquake Forecasting), Dushanbe: Donish, 1986, no. 6, pp. 323–336.

  32. Sadovskii, M.A., Lukk, A.A., Sidorin, A.Ya., and Sidorin, I.A., Problemy interpretatsii vremennoi struktury geofizicheskikh polei (Problems Related to Interpretation of Structures of Geophysical Fields), Moscow: Inst. Fiz. Zemli Ross. Akad. Nauk, 1993.

  33. Sibgatulin, V.G. and Peretokin, S.A., Process synergy in seismic foci and short-term earthquake prediction, in Geodinamika i seismichnost' Sredizemnomorsko-Chernomorsko-Kaspiiskogo regiona: Tez. dokl. Mezhdunar. seminara (Geodynamics and Seismicity of the Mediterranean–Ponto-Caspian Region: Abstracts Int. Seminar), Gelendzhik, 2006, p. 90.

  34. Sibgatulin, V.G., Khlebopros, R.G., Peretokin, S.A., and Kabanov, A.A., Process synergy in seismic foci and short-term earthquake prediction, Inzh. Ekol., 2009, no. 2, pp. 32–42.

  35. Tatevossian, R.E., Rogozhin, E.A., and Aref’ev, S.S., Assessment of earthquake intensity based on seismic effects in the natural environment: General principles and application examples, Vopr. Inzh. Seismol., 2008, vol. 35, no. 1, pp. 7–27.

    Google Scholar 

  36. Vartanyan, G.S., The hydrogeodeformation field in studying geodynamic mechanisms, Otechestvennaya Geol., 1995, no. 4, pp. 29–37.

  37. Vartanyan, G.S., The Earth’s endodrainage system and seismicity: Prospects of monitoring, Otechestvennaya Geol., 2006, no. 1, pp. 41–52.

  38. Vartanyan, G.S., Some deformation mechanisms of the operation of the Earth’s endodrainage system and seismicity, Otechestvennaya Geol., 2008, no. 2, pp. 18–27.

  39. Vartanyan, G.S., Regional geodynamic monitoring system for ensuring safety in geological and exploratory production of oil and gas, Izv., Atmos. Ocean. Phys., 2010, vol. 46, no. 8, pp. 952–964. https://doi.org/10.1134/S0001433810080049

    Article  Google Scholar 

  40. Vartanyan, G.S., The global endodrainage system: Prospects of seismic prediction, Izv., Atmos. Ocean. Phys., 2013, vol. 49, no. 7, pp. 745–759. https://doi.org/10.1134/S0001433813070074

    Article  Google Scholar 

  41. Vartanyan, G.S., Fast deformation cycles in the lithosphere and catastrophic earthquakes: Was it possible to prevent the Fukushima tragedy?, Izv., Atmos. Ocean. Phys., 2014, vol. 50, no. 8. P. 805–823. https://doi.org/10.1134/S0001433814080088

    Article  Google Scholar 

  42. Vartanyan, G.S., Geodinamicheskie katastrofy i ikh prognoz (endodrenazh Zemli, deformatsii, seismichnost’ (Geodynamic Disasters and Prediction Thereof: Earth’s Endodrainage, Deformations, and Seismicity), Moscow: Geoinformmark, 2015.

  43. Vartanyan, G.S., Strain anatomy of two seismic disasters: Geophysical warfare or natural phenomena?, Nauka Tekhnol. Razrab., 2016, vol. 95, no. 2, pp. 3–28.

    Google Scholar 

  44. Vartanyan, G.S., The global endodrainage system: Certain fluid physics mechanisms of geodynamic processes, Geodynam.Tectonophys., 2019, vol. 10, no. 1, pp. 53–78. https://doi.org/10.5800/GT-2019-10-1-0404

    Article  Google Scholar 

  45. Vartanyan, G.S., Stazhilo-Alekseev, S.K., and Zal’tsberg, E.A., Hydrogeodeformation monitoring: the perspectives of seismic prediction, Otechestvennaya Geol., 2013, no. 6, pp. 61–70.

Download references

Funding

These investigations were supported in part by a state contract for the Institute of Physics of the Earth: “Complex Seismological-Geophysical Monitoring of Potential Sources of Strong Earthquakes; Stagewise (Long-, Middle-, and Short-Term) Prediction of the Seismic Situation,” as well as by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, project no. 18-05-00641_a).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. FBGU Gidrospetsgeologiya, 123060, Moscow, Russia

    G. V. Kulikov & S. V. Spector

  2. Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of Sciences, 123242, Moscow, Russia

    E. A. Rogozhin, R. N. Lukashova & A. I. Sysolin

Authors
  1. G. V. Kulikov
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. S. V. Spector
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. E. A. Rogozhin
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. R. N. Lukashova
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. A. I. Sysolin
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to R. N. Lukashova.

Ethics declarations

The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest.

Additional information

Translated by A. Nikol’skii

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Kulikov, G.V., Spector, S.V., Rogozhin, E.A. et al. On Methods of Short-Term Earthquake Prediction Based on Monitoring the Hydrogeodeformation Field. Izv. Atmos. Ocean. Phys. 55, 1715–1725 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0001433819110082

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S0001433819110082

Keywords:

Search

Navigation