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Estimating the coupling between variations in the atlantic multidecadal oscillation and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation

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Abstract

On the basis of monthly mean data obtained over a period of 1870–2013, relations between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have been studied using the Granger causality analysis and estimates of long-Term effects. A bidirectional relationship has been revealed in the dynamics of these processes; moreover, over the entire period as a whole, the ENSO influence on the AMO was significantly stronger than the AMO influence on the ENSO. However, a more detailed analysis has revealed the variable character of this relationship: the ENSO influence on the AMO was stronger at the beginning of the period under study, while, in recent years, the reverse influence and its increase have become more significant against the background of a decrease in the ENSO influence on the AMO.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Pyzhevskii per. 3, Moscow, 119017, Russia

    I. I. Mokhov

  2. Kotel’nikov Institute of Radio Engineering and Electronics, Saratov Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, ul. Zelenaya 38, Saratov, 410019, Russia

    D. A. Smirnov

  3. Institute of Applied Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, ul. Ul’yanova 46, Nizhny Novgorod, 603950, Russia

    D. A. Smirnov

Authors
  1. I. I. Mokhov
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  2. D. A. Smirnov
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Correspondence to I. I. Mokhov.

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Original Russian Text © I.I. Mokhov, D.A. Smirnov, 2015, published in Izvestiya AN. Fizika Atmosfery i Okeana, 2015, Vol. 51, No. 5, pp. 533–542.

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Mokhov, I.I., Smirnov, D.A. Estimating the coupling between variations in the atlantic multidecadal oscillation and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Izv. Atmos. Ocean. Phys. 51, 472–481 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0001433815050084

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S0001433815050084

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