Don’t let a good crisis go to waste: China’s response to the Russia–Ukraine war

Abstract

This article examines Beijing’s reactions to, and perceptions of, Russia’s war against Ukraine, and it draws on Neoclassical Realism to explain the motives and objectives underlying the Chinese response. It argues that Beijing has adopted somewhat ambivalent, but consistently pro-Russian policies in response to the invasion. These policies include conspicuous rhetorical and diplomatic backing and continued economic engagement with Russia, mixed with restraint in the provision of substantial material—particularly military—support for Moscow, along with an insistence that China remains a ‘neutral’ party in the conflict. The article inquires why Beijing has opted to provide consistent (albeit discreet and often indirect) support for Russia in connection with its war against Ukraine, in spite of various negative long-term consequences it risks incurring as a result. It proposes that China’s overall policy response has been driven by a combination of geopolitical (systemic) and domestic-level (regime security and ideological) considerations.