Abstract
This article examines the challenges Brexit poses to the Good Friday Agreement (GFA) in Northern Ireland (NI) by considering how political leaders frame the problem of reconciling Brexit with the GFA. Analyzing the Hansard record of four key debates on the European Union (Withdrawal) Act of 2018 in the House of Commons (the first Withdrawal Agreement), we conclude that the Brexit debate reveals a distinct new threat to the peace accord: its nestedness in British politics. The primary objection MPs raised was that the withdrawal deal would undermine UK sovereignty. In fact, opposition to the multiple sovereignties that the GFA enshrined appeared to be one of the principal reasons for the withdrawal act’s defeat. Second, MPs objected to the way the backstop’s multiple exercise of sovereignty and multilateralism would impact the union between NI and Great Britain, if not its impact on NI itself. Indeed, they tended to decouple discussion of the backstop from previous violence or the peace process. Third, debate was heavily skewed in favor of Unionism, rather than the balanced and plural mechanisms typical of British policy. Fourth, MPs were not coherent in how they understood the GFA. We find that the British Parliament has departed markedly from its established pattern of bilateralism, bipartisanship and deference to government in dealing with Northern Ireland. The consequence is that the British parliament, rather than armed actors in the province, may well undo one of the most successful peace agreements and for reasons that have little to do with NI.
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Notes
We refer to the agreement as the ‘Good Friday Agreement’ although we recognize that different groups use different nomenclature and interpret the label differently. We do not intend to advance one group’s claims over another.
In fact, many MPs, most notably Boris Johnson, flip-flopped on the bill over the course of these debates.
Though John Major’s government was dependent on Ulster Unionist Party support in its last years, it was neither bound to enforce a peace agreement nor faced with politically contentious issue such as Brexit.
While MPs said many things outside of Parliament, we rely upon Hansard as the official record of their positions.
By March 12, the majority of Conservatives voted in favor of the bill although 75 Conservatives joined the opposition parties in defeating it by 391 to 242.
The Attorney General determined that the backstop would last indefinitely unless the EU and UK agreed on terms for its termination.
Note that on January 9, 2019, PM Theresa May announced that the British government would introduce domestic legislation to require approval of the NI Assembly for future changes in regulation to which NI would be subject.
Michael Gove, Secretary for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, made a similar comment in Jan and Jeffrey Donaldson (DUP, Lagan Valley, Jan 15, 2019) used reference to the support of the business community in NI for the withdrawal deal to deny the validity of their claim.
Some mentions in the key word searches used both names for the agreement and thus, are double-counted. Others mentioned it without context or substance.
As the PM did, Barclay connected the fate of NI with the fate of Scotland, both of which voted to remain and have sizeable constituencies who seek to change their constitutional status. The GFA, however, guarantees NI this option and there is no provision in any statute pertaining to Scotland’s consent. The SNP have pledged to introduce a symbolic motion for a new referendum on Scottish independence in the Scottish parliament should Brexit happen.
This is an argument helped by the assertion of secretary-general of the European Commission, Martin Selmayr, that losing Northern Ireland is ‘the price of Brexit,’ a comment raised approximately six times by MPs in January.
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Cowell-Meyers, K., Gallaher, C. Parsing the backstop: Northern Ireland and the Good Friday Agreement in the Brexit debates. Br Polit 16, 219–238 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41293-020-00146-4
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/s41293-020-00146-4