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The feasibility of Arctic container shipping: the economic and environmental impacts of ice thickness

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Maritime Economics & Logistics Aims and scope

Abstract

An evaluation of the competitiveness of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) for container shipping services, considering ice thickness changes during the year, is presented in the present work. The variation in ice thickness has three implications. Firstly, it entails a probability of blockage in ice and reduces the number of days in which a round-trip liner service can be completed. Secondly, ice thickness impacts schedule integrity. Thirdly, it impacts costs (icebreaker fees and fuel consumption), transit time, and the amount of CO2 emitted per TEU. Accounting for these elements in a model and then in a business case, this study concludes that NSR liner services are only competitive, compared with the Suez Canal Route or the Trans-Siberian Railway Connection, for a limited period of 1.5 months per year.

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Notes

  1. Each subzone is an area where significant changes in ice conditions may exist during the year.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. KEDGE Supply Chain Center of Excellence, KEDGE Business School, 680 Cours de la Libération, 33000, Talence, France

    Pierre Cariou

  2. Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management Department, College of Engineering, University of Sharjah, 27272, Shariqah, United Arab Emirates

    Ali Cheaitou & Sadeque Hamdan

  3. EM Normandie, Le Havre, France

    Olivier Faury

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  1. Pierre Cariou
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  2. Ali Cheaitou
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  3. Olivier Faury
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  4. Sadeque Hamdan
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Correspondence to Pierre Cariou.

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Appendix

Appendix

The NSR fee per ice-class depends on the number of zones n (seven zones in total defined by the NSRA), the exchange rate (RUB/USD), the ship’s gross tonnage and ice-class, and the season (winter/spring or summer/autumn). Information was retrieved from the FTS of Russia (2017), using an exchange rate of 0.0175 RUB/USD. Next figure presents the seven NSR zones, and Table 1 is the estimated fee (IB) as a function of the number of zones when icebreaker assistance is needed (Fig. 4; Table 6).

Fig. 4
figure 4

Source Authors based on http://d-maps.com/carte.php?num°car=3193&lang=fr

Seven NSR zones subject to icebreaker fee.

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Table 6 NSR fees (in USD) as a function of the number of zones with icebreaker assistance.
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Cariou, P., Cheaitou, A., Faury, O. et al. The feasibility of Arctic container shipping: the economic and environmental impacts of ice thickness. Marit Econ Logist 23, 615–631 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41278-019-00145-3

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