Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Lost connection? The attitudinal and ideological (in)congruence of social democracy’s elites, members and voters in Flanders-Belgium

  • Original Article
  • Published:
Acta Politica Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

In this article we investigate the electoral decline of the Flemish social democratic party sp.a by analysing the intraparty (in)congruence in opinion structure using a unique pooled dataset that contains party elites, members and voters in Flanders-Belgium. We combine two complementary approaches on incongruence: attitudinal and ideological congruence. A hypothesis derived from post-Marxism is formulated in terms of attitudinal congruence and tested using pairwise means comparisons, while hypotheses from cleavage theory are formulated in terms of ideological incongruence and tested empirically using Latent Class Analysis. Results show that party elites predominantly adhere to a left-universalistic ideology while left-particularists have left the party en masse, confirming the realignment thesis of cleavage theory and rejecting expectations from post-Marxist theory. We conclude that Flemish social democracy’s left-universalistic elites have largely lost connection with their left-particularistic base while managing an insufficient appeal among (centre-)left-universalistic middle class voters.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2

Similar content being viewed by others

Notes

  1. Since classes may vary substantively across groups, multiple group analyses may thus require more classes than single-group analyses in order to allow for this variability.

  2. The observed pattern also contradicts May’s Law of curvilinear disparity (May, 1972): the rank-and-file members—as a proxy for activists—do not tend to be more radical than both the party leadership and its voters.

  3. The positioning of the latent classes onto the two-dimensional space was calculated as follows. Since all probabilities add up to 1, a high score on the middle category ensures the variability of the item is reduced (by 1—the middle category). Thus, the middle category of all items was disregarded. In the next step, the two categories at the extreme are deducted from one another, creating either a positive or a negative value for each item. The resulting scores are summed and divided by the total number of items on that dimension, ensuring each item has an equal weight within the dimension.

References

  • Abts, K. 2011. Maatschappelijk onbehagen en etnopopulisme. KU Leuven.

  • Abts, K., and T. Kochuyt. 2013. De vreemde bedreiging van de verzorgingsstaat. Tijdschrift Voor Sociologie 34 (3–4): 224–249.

    Google Scholar 

  • Abts, K., E. Dalle Mulle, S. Van Kessel, and E. Michel. 2020. The welfare agenda of the populist radical right in Western Europe: Between welfare chauvinism, producerism, and populism. Political Studies.

  • Abts, K., E.D. Mulle, and R. Laermans. 2019. Beyond issue diversification: N-VA and the communitarisation of political, economic and cultural conflicts in Belgium. West European Politics 42 (4): 848–872.

    Google Scholar 

  • Achterberg, P., and D. Houtman. 2009. Ideologically Illogical? Why Do the Lower-Educated Dutch Display so Little Value Coherence? Social Forces 87 (3): 1649–1670.

    Google Scholar 

  • Allern, E.H., H. Knut, and R. Karlsen. 2016. After the Mass Party: Continuity and Change in Political Parties and Representation in Norway. London: Lexington Books.

    Google Scholar 

  • Arndt, C. 2013. The Electoral Consequences of Third Way Welfare State Reforms. Social Democracy’s Transformation and its Political Costs. Amsterdam: Amsterdam University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Arzheimer, K. (2013) Working-class parties 2.0? Competition between centre left and extreme right parties. In J. Rydgren (Ed.), Class Politics and the Radical Right. London/New York: Routledge.

  • Azmanova, A. 2011. After the Left-Right (Dis)continuum: Globalisation and the Remaking of Europe’s Ideological Geography. International Political Sociology 5 (4): 384–407.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bale, T., C. Green-Pedersen, A. Krouwel, R.R. Luther, and N. Sitter. 2010. If You Can’t Beat Them, Join Them? Explaining Social Democratic Responses to the Challenge from the Populist Radical Right in Western Europe. Political Studies 58: 410–426.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bartolini, S. 2000. The Political Mobilization of European Left, 1860–1980. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bartolini, S., and P. Mair. 1990. Identity, Competition and Electoral Availability. Colchester: ECPR Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bell, D.S., and E. Shaw (eds.). 1994. Conflict and Cohesion in Western European Social Democracy. Pinter, NY: St. Martins Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Billiet, J. 2006. Verzuiling en ontzuiling in Belgie. De geschiedenis van België na 1945, 331–364. Standaard Uitgeverij: Antwerp.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bonoli, G. (2004) Social Democratic party policies in Europe: Towards a Third Way? In Giuliano Bonoli and Martin Powell (eds). Social Democratic Party Policies in Europe. London/New York: Routledge.

  • Bornschier, S. 2010. The New Cultural Divide and the Two-Dimensional Political Space in Western Europe. West European Politics 33 (3): 419–444.

    Google Scholar 

  • Brepoels, J. 2015. Wat zoudt gij zonder ’t werkvolk zijn? De geschiedenis van de Belgische arbeidersbeweging 1830–2015. Leuven: Van Halewyck.

    Google Scholar 

  • Collins, L.M., and S.T. Lanza. 2010. Latent Class and Latent Transition Analysis. Hoboken: Wiley.

    Google Scholar 

  • Coffé, H. 2008. Social Democratic Parties as Buffers Against the Extreme Right: The Case of Belgium. Contemporary Politics 14 (2): 179–195.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cuperus, R., and J. Kandel. 1998. European Social Democracy. Amsterdam: Transformation in Progress.

    Google Scholar 

  • Derks, A. (2006) Populism and the Ambivalence of Egalitarianism. How Do the Underprivileged Reconcile a Right-Wing Party Preference with Their Socio-Economic Attitudes? World Political Science, 2(3): 528–553.

  • Dolezal, M. 2010. Exploring the Stabilization of a Political Force: The Social and Attitudinal Basis of Green Parties in the Age of Globalisation. West European Politics 33 (3): 534–552.

    Google Scholar 

  • Evans, G., and J. Tilley. 2017. The New Politics of Class: the Political Exclusion of the British Working Class. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ferrera, M. 2005. The Boundaries of Welfare: European Integration and the New Spatial Politics of Social Protection. New York: Oxford University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gaasendam, C.R. 2019. De electorale paradoxen van sp.a. Samenleving & Politiek 26 (6): 45–50.

    Google Scholar 

  • Giddens, A. 1998. The Third Way: The Renewal of Social Democracy. Cambridge: Polity Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Green-Pedersen, C., and K. van Kersbergen. 2002. The Politics of the “Third Way”. Party Politics 8 (5): 507–524.

    Google Scholar 

  • Houtman, D., P. Achterberg, and A. Derks. 2008. Farewell to the Leftist Working Class. New Jersey: Transaction Publishers.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ignazi, P. 1992. The Silent Counter-Revolution: Hypotheses on the Emergence of Extreme Right-Wing Parties in Europe. European Journal of Political Research 22 (1): 3–34.

    Google Scholar 

  • Immerfall, S. 1998. Conclusion. The neopopulist agenda. In The New Politics of the Right, Neopopulist Parties and Movements in Established Democracies, ed. Hans-Georg Betz and Stefan Immerfall, 249–261. London: Macmillan.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kankaras, M. (2010) Essays on Measurement Equivalence in Cross-Cultural Research: A Latent Class Approach. Tilburg University.

  • Katz, R.S., and P. Mair. 1995. Changing Models of Party Organization and Party Democracy: The Emergence of the Cartel Party. Party Politics 1 (1): 5–28.

    Google Scholar 

  • Keman, H. 2010. Third Ways and Social Democracy: The Right Way to Go? British Journal of Political Science 41 (03): 671–680.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kitschelt, H., and S. Hellemans. 1990. The Left-Right Semantics and the New Politics Cleavage. Comparative Political Studies. 23 (2): 210–238.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kitschelt, H. 1994. The Transformation of European Social Democracy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kitschelt, H., and A. McGann. 1995. The Radical Right in Western Europe. A Comparative Analysis. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Koelble, T.A. 1991. The Left Unraveled: Social Democracy and the New Left Challenge in Britain and West Germany. Durham: Duke University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kriesi, H.-P. 1998. The Transformation of Cleavage Politics. The 1997 Stein Rokkan Lecture. European Journal of Political Research 33 (2): 165–185.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kriesi, H.-P., E. Grande, R. Lachat, M. Dolezal, S. Bornschier, and T. Frey. 2006. Globalisation and the Transformation of the National Political Space: Six European Countries Compared. European Journal of Political Research 45 (6): 921–956.

    Google Scholar 

  • Laursen, B., and E. Hoff. 2006. Person-Centered and Variable-Centered Approaches to Longitudinal Data 52 (3): 377–389.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lavelle, A. (2008) The Death of Social Democracy: Political Consequences in the 21st Century. Ashgate.

  • Lefkofridi, Z., M. Wagner, and J.E. Willmann. 2014. Left-Authoritarians and Policy Representation in Western Europe: Electoral Choice across Ideological Dimensions. West European Politics 37 (1): 65–90.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lipset, S.M. 1959. Democracy and Working-Class Authoritarianism. American Sociological Review 24 (4): 482–501.

    Google Scholar 

  • Manin, B. 1997. The Principles of Representative Government. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • May, J.D. 1972. Opinion Structure of Political Parties: The Special Law of Curvilinear Disparity. Political Studies 21 (2): 135–151.

    Google Scholar 

  • Moschonas, G. 2002. In the Name of Social Democracy. London/New York: Verso.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mudge, S. 2018. Leftism Reinvented: Western Parties from Socialism to Neoliberalism. Harvard: Harvard University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Muthén, L.K. and Muthén, B.O. (1998–2012) Mplus User’s Guide, Seventh Edition. Los Angeles, CA: Muthén and Muthén

  • Nylund, K.L., T. Asparouhov, and B.O. Muthen. 2007. Deciding on the number of classes in latent class analysis and growth mixture modeling: A Monte Carlo simulation study. Structural Equation Modeling: A Multidisciplinary Journal 14 (4): 535–669.

    Google Scholar 

  • Oesch, D. 2006. Redrawing the Class Map: Stratification and Institutions in Britain, Germany, Sweden and Switzerland. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.

    Google Scholar 

  • Oesch, D. 2008. Explaining Workers’ Support for Right-Wing Populist Parties in Western Europe: Evidence from Austria, Belgium, France, Norway, and Switzerland. International Political Science Review 29 (3): 349–373.

    Google Scholar 

  • Oesch, D. and Rennwald L. (2018) Electoral Competition in Europe’s New Tripolar Political Space: Class Voting for the Left, Centre-Right and Radical Right. European Journal of Political Research, 783–807.

  • Przeworski, A., and J. Sprague. 1986. Paper Stones: A History of Electoral Socialism. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rennwald, L., and G. Evans. 2014. When Supply Creates Demand: Social Democratic Party Strategies and the Evolution of Class Voting. West European Politics 37 (5): 1108–1135.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rokkan, S. 1970. Citizens, Elections, Parties. Oslo: Universitetsforlaget.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rowley, S.J., T.M. Chavous, and D.Y. Cooke. 2003. A Person-Centered Approach to African-American Gender Differences in Racial Ideology. Self and Identity 2: 287–306.

    Google Scholar 

  • Swyngedouw, M. 1993. Nieuwe Breuklijnen in de Vlaamse Politiek. De Politieke Ruimte van de 18-tot 65-jarige Vlaamse Kiezer na de Verkiezingen van 24 November 1991. In Kiezen is Verliezen. Onderzoek naar de politieke opvattingen van Vlamingen (pp. 85–112). Leuven/Amersfoort: Acco.

  • Swyngedouw, M. 1994. De opkomst en doorbraak van Agalev en Vlaams Blok in de jaren tachtig en negentig. Acta Politica 29 (4): 453–476.

    Google Scholar 

  • Swyngedouw, M. 2008. Het stemaandeel van de Vlaamse politieke partijen. Leuven.

  • Swyngedouw, M., Rink, N., Abts, K., Poznyak, D., Frognier, A.-P., & Baudewyns, P. 2008. Belgian General Election Study 2007. Codebook: Questions and Frequency tables. Leuven.

  • Teney, C., O.P. Lacewell, and P. De Wilde. 2014. Winners and Losers of Globalisation in Europe: Attitudes and Ideologies. European Political Science Review 6 (4): 575–595.

    Google Scholar 

  • Vander Weyden, P., and K. Abts. 2010. De Basis Spreekt. Onderzoek naar de leden, mandatarissen en kiezers van sp.a. Leuven: Acco.

    Google Scholar 

  • Van Der Brug, W., and J. Van Spanje. 2009. Immigration, Europe and the “New” Cultural Dimension. European Journal of Political Research 48 (3): 309–334.

    Google Scholar 

  • Volkens, A. 2004. Policy changes of European Social Democrats. In Social Democratic Party Policies in Contemporary Europe, ed. Giuliano Bonoli and Martin Powell, 21–42. London: Routledge.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wauters, B. 2012. Blue Collars Striking the Red Flag: Formal and Descriptive Representation of the Working Class in the Belgian House of Representatives 1946–2007. Labor History 53 (2): 225–243.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgement

This study was made possible with the support of the National Science Foundation Flanders – FWO-Vlaanderen, the National Lottery – De Nationale Loterij and The KU Leuven Research council.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Center for Sociological Research, University of Leuven, Parkstraat 45, Box 3601, 3000, Leuven, Belgium

    Christiaan Reinier Gaasendam, Koen Abts, Marc Swyngedouw & Bart Meuleman

  2. Department of Sociology, University of Tilburg, Tilburg, The Netherlands

    Koen Abts

Authors
  1. Christiaan Reinier Gaasendam
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Koen Abts
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Marc Swyngedouw
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Bart Meuleman
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Christiaan Reinier Gaasendam.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of interest

On behalf of all authors, the corresponding author states that there is no conflict of interest.

Additional information

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Appendices

Appendices

Appendix 1

Social characteristics. Row probabilities from a multinomial logistic regression

 

Left-universalists

Centre-left-universalists

Centrists

Left-particularists

Centre-right-universalists

Sex

χ2 = 14.43; p < 0.01

 Female

0.31

0.25

0.11

0.24

0.08

 Male

0.39

0.24

0.11

0.17

0.09

Age

χ2 = 105.83; p < 0.001

 15–25

0.51

0.15

0.11

0.03

0.20

 26–35

0.54

0.19

0.10

0.06

0.11

 36–45

0.44

0.23

0.13

0.11

0.10

 46–55

0.42

0.23

0.13

0.12

0.10

 56–65

0.25

0.33

0.13

0.25

0.05

 66–75

0.16

0.25

0.05

0.49

0.05

 75+ 

0.06

0.24

0.05

0.58

0.07

Education

χ2 = 142.53; p < 0.001

 None

0.02

0.22

0.12

0.58

0.06

 Lower

0.10

0.34

0.14

0.36

0.06

 Lower secondary

0.20

0.35

0.16

0.22

0.07

 Higher secondary

0.40

0.27

0.10

0.15

0.09

 Higher non-university

0.50

0.22

0.09

0.07

0.11

 University

0.74

0.07

0.06

0.01

0.12

Social class

χ2 = 29.52; p < 0.001

 Working class

0.16

0.30

0.13

0.36

0.05

 Lower middle class

0.37

0.27

0.10

0.20

0.07

 (Upper) middle class

0.50

0.17

0.11

0.07

0.14

(Religious) World view

χ2 = 154.80; p < 0.001

 Not religious

0.48

0.21

0.09

0.15

0.08

 Freethinker

0.53

0.24

0.07

0.10

0.05

 Christian, non-practicing

0.14

0.25

0.16

0.34

0.11

 Christian, church-going

0.32

0.26

0.14

0.17

0.10

 Other religion

0.39

0.32

0.05

0.06

0.18

Appendix 2

Test statistics of single-group LCAs

 

Independence

2 classes

3 classes

4 classes

S.pa elites

AIC

17,019

15,973

15,838

15,731

BIC

17,144

16,228

16,223

16,247

Sample-size adjusted BIC

17,062

16,060

15,970

15,907

Entropy

 

0.83

0.85

0.85

LMR adjusted LRT

 

1094***

188

160

Parametric bootstrapped LRT

 

1100***

189***

161***

Sp.a members

AIC

21,708

20,457

20,261

20,153

BIC

21,835

20,717

20,652

20,677

Sample-size adjusted BIC

21,753

20,548

20,398

20,337

Entropy

 

0.81

0.72

0.75

LMR adjusted LRT

 

1298***

249

161

Parametric bootstrapped LRT

 

1305***

250***

162***

Sp.a voters

AIC

4386

4168

4106

4073

BIC

4472

4342

4369

4424

Sample-size adjusted BIC

4389

4174

4116

4085

Entropy

 

0.83

0.86

0.90

LMR adjusted LRT

 

271 + 

114

87

Parametric bootstrapped LRT

 

273***

115***

88***

Sp.a ex-voters

AIC

5869

5623

5537

5519

BIC

5961

5811

5821

5898

Sample-size adjusted BIC

5878

5643

5567

5558

Entropy

 

0.81

0.82

0.84

LMR adjusted LRT

 

298*

139

72

Parametric bootstrapped LRT

 

300***

140***

73***

Other voters

AIC

16,096

15,642

15,372

15,254

BIC

16,213

15,881

15,734

15,737

Sample-size adjusted BIC

16,130

15,713

15,480

15,398

Entropy

 

0.72

0.77

0.80

LMR adjusted LRT

 

505**

322***

171

Parametric bootstrapped LRT

 

508***

323***

172***

  1. ***p < 0.001, **p < 0.01, *p < 0.05, +p < 0.10

Appendix 3

Test statistics of multi-group LCAs

 

AIC

BIC

Adj. BIC

Entropy

4 class model

 Heterogeneous

41,236

43,299

42,162

0.88

 Homogeneous

41,352

41,963

41,626

0.89

5 class model

 Heterogeneous

41,089

43,665

42,245

0.87

 Homogeneous

41,130

41,890

41,471

0.86

6 class model

 Heterogeneous

41,006

44,195

42,392

0.86

 Homogeneous

40,980

41,890

41,388

0.85

Lo–Mendell–Rubin and bootstrapped LRT tests are not available for multi-group analysis

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Gaasendam, C.R., Abts, K., Swyngedouw, M. et al. Lost connection? The attitudinal and ideological (in)congruence of social democracy’s elites, members and voters in Flanders-Belgium. Acta Polit 56, 395–415 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41269-020-00156-6

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/s41269-020-00156-6

Keywords

Search

Navigation