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Goldilocks and the entrepreneurs: Mainstream party strategies on immigration in Flanders and the Netherlands

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Abstract

This article addresses competition over immigration in the Dutch and Flemish party systems. By looking at when, whether and how mainstream parties engage with immigration in each place, this article seeks to understand how parties compete on an issue under non-ownership conditions. Drawing on an analysis of party manifestos, it supports the concept of combined competence and positional competition, and of parties emphasizing immigration when they have a distinct position, and shows how the presence of intra-party tensions is relevant for understanding how parties choose to emphasize (or avoid) immigration as part of their electoral strategy. On the other hand, there is less support for the premise that party size predicts emphasis on immigration. These results are discussed with respect to the wider implications for understanding party strategies in Western Europe, and for the (party) politics of immigration specifically.

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Notes

  1. Mainstream parties are defined here as those that were represented in Parliament during the time studied, won more than 5 per cent of the vote at least once during the studied period, correspond to Caramani’s (2004) classification of party families (categories 1–10) and do not appear on Mudde’s (2007) list of PRR parties. In the Netherlands, this gave six parties: the Christian Democratic CDA, the market liberal VVD, the social liberals D66, the Labour/social democratic PvdA, the Socialist SP and the green left Groen-Links (GL). Notably, this definition includes the Socialist Party, identified by Mudde (2004) as an example of left-wing populism. While their origins in the 1990s are as a protest party, in the decade studied the party has moved closer to the center on economic issues ideologically and increased its vote share. In Flanders, it resulted in four parties: the Christian Democratic CD&V, the market liberals Open VLD, the Labour/social democratic SPA and the green left Groen! Notably, this excludes the Flemish-nationalist N-VA, now the largest Flemish party, but which split from VU only in 2001, failed to reach the 5 per cent threshold in 2003 and ran as part of a cartel with CD&V in 2007. In the Netherlands, election years in this time period include 2002, 2003, 2006 and 2010. In 2003 CDA and PvdA used the same manifesto as for 2002. Manifestos from the Flemish parties are for the federal elections that took place in 2003, 2007 and 2010.

  2. A sentence or quasi-sentence dealing with immigration is one defined as using a relevant indicator (immigration, asylum, refugee, integration, cohesion, undocumented). A sample of complete manifestos was cross-checked for other terms that are often associated with immigration and integration issues, such as ‘Islam,’ and ‘Muslim,’ but this yielded no additional sentences or quasi-sentences not already included.

  3. Aggregate scores are utilized by assessing party preferences in seven areas: Privatization more (+1) or less (−1) desirable; public sector more (+1) or less (−1) market influence; Welfare and social security system more (+1) or less (−1) market influence; Labor market more (−1) or less (+1) regulation; taxation levels adjusted lower (+1) or higher (+1); on budget deficit less (+1) or more (−1) public spending; and in trade and enterprise less (+1) or more (−1) regulation.

  4. Aggregate scores are utilized by assessing party preferences in six areas: positive (−1) or negative (+1) views on diversity of lifestyles; favoring individual freedom (−1) or moralistic government (+2); favoring direct (−1) or appointed (+1) representation; favoring more individual participation in decision making (−1) or more hierarchical decision making (+1); national identity as less (−1) or more (+1) important; environmental protection (−1) or economic growth (+1) being more important.

  5. All manifesto coding carried out by the author as part of a larger project ‘Old Politics, New Issues, and Institutional Constraints’ (ESRC RES-061-25-0195). Inter-rater reliability checks were used to ensure consistency in coding. Statements supporting a particular rating were selected to score blind. Occasionally discrepancies were identified, often when the relevant passages were lengthy, and generated discussion until agreement was reached. Individual coded responses are available from the author upon request.

  6. 2006: ‘Asylum procedures must be fair … applications must be completed quickly so that stakeholders have clarity on their application’. 2010: ‘The proposals for improving the asylum procedure and reduction of repeat applications will be vigorously implemented’.

  7. 2006: ‘a clear and fair asylum procedure that is quick and careful. Refugees are admitted quickly to get opportunities to integrate into Dutch society’.

  8. 2010: ‘there were insufficient shelter facilities for asylum seekers D66 also finds that asylum seekers and refugees had unnecessary long and uncertain times about whether or not they may continue in the Netherlands ... quicker processing procedures ...’.

  9. 2010: ‘Asylum requests are doing better due to being handled much more quickly than before’.

  10. 2006: ‘The asylum process must be fast, careful and clear’.

  11. 2003: ‘CD&V will implement a sound, balanced and properly respected rules and procedures regarding the different [asylum and refugee] statutes’. 2006: ‘The backlog in asylum applications should be eliminated’.

  12. 2006: ‘Green wants a humane asylum policy with legal certainty, transparency and rigorous procedures’. 2010: ‘more staff [are needed] to work on asylum’.

  13. 2010: ‘But those who systematically abuse the asylum procedure will be systematically deported … We carry the fight against marriages which appear to be of convenience’.

  14. Note, per the theme of the issue, that negative values on the immigration/integration scale do not directly correspond to the negative/left positions on the old/new dimensions. In particular, a positive rating on labor migration indicates a restrictive preference, which conceptually corresponds with ‘old’ left preferences for labor protections. But with respect to asylum, family and integration categories, a negative preference on immigration/integration corresponds with the ‘left’s’ presence on new politics, also indicated by a negative value.

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Acknowledgements

Research support from the UK Economic and Social Research Council is gratefully acknowledged. Earlier versions of this article were presented at the 2013 Western Political Science Association meeting and prepared for the 2012 American Political Science Association meeting. The author would like to thank Pontus Odmalm, Tim Bale, Dvora Yanow, Ron Schmidt and three anonymous reviewers for their input and suggestions.

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    Betsy Super

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Super, B. Goldilocks and the entrepreneurs: Mainstream party strategies on immigration in Flanders and the Netherlands. Acta Polit 50, 417–441 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1057/ap.2014.30

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