The Public as Peacemaker: How Polling in Divided Societies Can Promote Negotiated Agreements

Abstract

Public opinion surveys have been used for conflict analysis since World War II and were developed as an aid for conflict resolution in support of negotiations and as an instrument of public diplomacy in Northern Ireland in the 1990s.² What are now referred to as “peace polls” have subsequently been employed to bring the views of critical populations into peace processes in a number of conflicts around the world including the Balkans, Middle East, and Asia. Initially, the application of polling was only done on an ad hoc basis with no effort made to do this approach as an essential instrument of learning in all peace processes. However, throughout the last decade, this issue was well understood by peacemaking authorities such as the United Nations, which subsequently led to an in-depth review of best practice for the inclusion of local voices in all UN peacekeeping operations and a growing inclusion of “peace polls” as an important tool for effective negotiations.

The lecture was held at the American University of Beirut on December 10, 2009, and edited in July 2015.