Skip to main content

Monetary Policy and International Reserves in Emerging Economies: Theory and Empirics

  • Chapter
Emerging Markets and Sovereign Risk

Abstract

One striking feature following the Asian economic crisis of 1997 is that many emerging economies have built up a large stock of international reserves (Aizenman & Marion, 2003; Aizenman & Lee, 2007; IMF, 2010). This reflects an important fact that sound macroeconomic management with low inflation may not insulate an economy from the likely adverse impact of volatile capital flows in the current international monetary system. The international monetary system has been observing global imbalances and unpredictable, volatile cross-border capital flows (IMF, 2010). A sharp accumulation of international reserves in many emerging countries in response to this has generated widespread concern among both policy makers and academic circles (Obstfeld, Shambaugh, & Taylor, 2010; IMF, 2010; Aizenman & Lee, 2007).

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 84.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 109.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  • Agu, C (2008), ‘Does the Policy Reaction Function of the Central Bank of Nigeria Follow Any Benchmark?’, International Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 2, no. 2, pp. 104–122.

    Google Scholar 

  • Aizenman, J & Lee, J (2007), ‘International Reserves: Precautionary versus Mercantilist Views, Theory and Evidence’, Open Economies Review, vol. 18, no. 2, pp. 191–214.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Aizenman, J & Marion, N (2003), ‘The High Demand for International Reserves in the Far East: What Is Going On?’, Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, vol. 17, no. 3, pp. 370–400.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Aizenman, J & Sun, Y (2009), ‘The Financial Crisis and Sizable International Reserves Depletion: From “Fear of Floating” to the “Fear of Losing” International Reserves?’, NBER Working Paper Series, no. 15308.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Baillie, R T & Chang, S S (2011), ‘Carry Trades, Momentum Trading and the Forward Premium Anomaly’, Journal of Financial Markets, vol. 14, no. 3, pp. 441–464.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ball, L (1999), ‘Policy Rules for Open Economies’ in Taylor, J B (ed.), Monetary Policy Rules, The University Chicago Press, Chicago.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bar-Ilan, A & Lederman, D (2007), ‘International Reserves and Monetary Policy’, Economics Letters, vol. 97, no. 2, pp. 170–178.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bar-Ilan, A & Marion, N P (2009), ‘A Macroeconomic Perspective on Reserve Accumulation’, Review of International Economics, vol. 17, no. 4, pp. 802–823.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Berument, H & Tasci, H (2004), ‘Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Evidence from Turkey’, International Journal of Finance and Economics, vol. 9, no. 1, pp. 33–38.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brunnermeier, M K, Nagel, S & Pedersen, L H (2009), ‘Carry Trades and Currency Crashes’, NBER Macroeconomic Annual 2008, vol. 23, pp. 313–347, University of Chicago Press.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cecchetti, S G (2000), ‘Making Monetary Policy: Objectives and Rules’, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, vol. 16, no. 4, pp. 43–59.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chang, H (2005), ‘Estimating the Monetary Policy Reaction Function for Taiwan: A VAR Model’, International Journal of Applied Economics, vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 50–61.

    Google Scholar 

  • Clarida, R, Gali, J & Gertler, M (1998), ‘Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence’, European Economic Review, vol. 42, no. 6, pp. 1033–1067.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dornbusch, R (1976), ‘Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics’, Journal of Political Economy, vol. 84, no. 6, pp. 1161–1176.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Engel, C (2011), ‘The Real Exchange Rate, Real Interest Rates and the Risk Premium’, NBER Working Paper, no. 17116.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Flood, R P & Rose, A K (2001), ‘Uncovered Interest Rate Parity in Crisis: The Interest Rate Defense in the 1990s’, Working Paper, International Monetary Fund (IMF), no. WP/01/207.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fosu, O A E & Magnus, F J (2006), ‘Bound Testing Approach to Cointegration: An Examination of Foreign Direct Investment, Trade and Growth Relationship’, American Journal of Applied Sciences, vol. 3, no. 11, pp. 2079–2085.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Genberg, H & He, D (2009), ‘Monetary and Financial Cooperation Among Central Banks in East Asia and the Pacific’, in Raj an, R S, Thangavelu, S & Parinduri, R A (eds), Exchange Rate, Monetary and Financial Issues and Policies in Asia, World Scientific, Singapore.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hsing, Y (2009), ‘Is the Monetary Policy Rule Responsive to Exchange Rate Changes? The Case of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand’, International Review of Economics, vol. 56, no. 2, pp. 123–132.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hsing, Y & Lee, S (2004). ‘Estimating the Bank of Korea’s Monetary Policy Reaction Function: New Evidence and Implications’, The Journal of the Korean Economy, vol. 5, no. 1, pp. 1–16.

    Google Scholar 

  • International Monetary Fund (IMF) (2010), Reserve Accumulation and International Monetary Stability.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jeanne, O (2007), ‘International Reserves in Emerging Market Countries: Too Much of a Good Thing’, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, vol. 1, pp. 56–79.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jeanne, O & Ranciere, R (2006), ‘The Optimal Level of International Reserves for Emerging Market Countries: Formulas and Applications’, Working Paper, International Monetary Fund (IMF), No. WP/06/229.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kim, S & Park, Y C (2006), ‘Inflation Targeting in Korea: A Model of Success?’, BIS Papers No. 31, Bank for International Settlements, pp. 140–164.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lavoie, M (2006), Introduction to Post Keynesian Economics, Palgrave-Macmillan, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • Levy-Yeyati, E (2008), ‘The Cost of Reserves’, Economics Letters, vol. 100, no. 1, pp. 39–42.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McCallum, B T (1996), International Monetary Economics, Oxford University Press, New York.

    Google Scholar 

  • McCauley R N (2006), ‘Understanding Monetary Policy in Malaysia and Thailand: Objectives, Instruments and Independence’, BIS Papers No. 31, Bank of International Settlements, pp. 172–198.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mohanty M S & Klau, M, (2004), ‘Monetary Policy Rules in Emerging Market Economies: Issues and Evidence’, BIS Working Papers No. 149, <http://www.bis.org/publ/workl49.pdf>.

    Google Scholar 

  • Obstfeld, M, Shambaugh, J C & Taylor, A M (2010), ‘Financial Stability, the Trilemma, and International Reserves’, Journal of Macroeconomics, vol. 2, no. 2, pp. 57–94.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Orphanides, A (2001), ‘Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data’, American Economic Review, vol. 91, no. 4, pp. 964–985.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pesaran, H H, Shin, Y & Smith, R J (2001), ‘Bound Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationship’, Journal of Applied Econometrics, vol. 16, no. 3, pp. 289–326.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rodrik, D (2006), ‘The Social Cost of Foreign Exchange Reserves’, International Economic Journal, vol. 20, no. 3, pp. 253–266.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Semmler, W, Griener, A & Zhang, W (2005), Monetary and Fiscal Policies in the Euro Area: Macro Modeling, Learning and Empirics, Elsevier, Amsterdam.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sutherland, D (2010), ‘Monetary Policy Reaction Functions in the OECD’, Working Papers, No. 761, OECD Economics Department, viewed 18 June 2011 <http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/5kmfwj7z6d7j-en>.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Svensson, L E (2000), ‘Open Economy Inflation Targeting’, Journal of International Economics, vol. 50, no. 1, pp. 155–183.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Svensson, L E (2003), ‘What Is Wrong with Taylor Rule? Using Judgement in Monetary Policy Through Targeting Rules’, Journal of Economic Literature, vol. 41, no. 2, pp. 426–477.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Taylor, J B (1993), ‘Discretion Versus Policy Rules in Practice’, Carnegie-Rochester Conferences Series on Public Policy, vol. 39, pp. 195–214.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Taylor, J B (2001), ‘The Role of the Exchange Rate in Monetary Policy Rules’, American Economic Review, vol. 91, no. 2, pp. 263–267.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Authors

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Copyright information

© 2015 Prakash Kumar Shrestha and Willi Semmler

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Shrestha, P.K., Semmler, W. (2015). Monetary Policy and International Reserves in Emerging Economies: Theory and Empirics. In: Finch, N. (eds) Emerging Markets and Sovereign Risk. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137450661_12

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics