Abstract
There is now general and widespread agreement among scientists that the Earth’s climate is changing and warming primarily due to human activities — particularly the release of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. According to the German Advisory Council on Global Change, “without resolute counteraction, a global increase in temperature of 2–7 degrees Celsius (°C) relative to pre-industrial levels can be expected by 2100”1, while greenhouse gases (GHGs) already released into the atmosphere will impact climate possibly for centuries to come. Despite this widespread agreement and increasingly robust evidence that global climate is changing, uncertainty remains over the extent of future temperature rise and other associated aspects of climate change, especially at regional scales.2 Nonetheless, the consequences of climate change are so significant that a panel of distinguished retired US generals and admirals has concluded that “prudence demands their effects on security need to be assessed”.3 Whatever the precise effects turn out to be, global climate change will profoundly shape the physical and human dynamics of Himalayan Asia’s freshwater crisis and transboundary river politics because climate is intertwined with every facet of the hydrological cycle. Geographer L. Allan James explains, “anthropogenic changes to the environment [such as climate change] often alter hydrologic processes that result in changes to water budgets, water quality, flood frequencies, soil erosion, sedimentation, and aquatic ecology.”4
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
Similar content being viewed by others
Notes
M. A. Palmer, C. A. R. Liermann, C. Nilsson, M. Flörke, J. Alcamo, P. S. Lake, and N. Bond, “Climate Change and the World’s River Basins: Anticipating Management Options”, Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 6 (2008), p. 15.
The Royal Society, Climate Change a Summary of the Science (London: The Royal Society, 2010), p. 1.
Military Advisory Board, National Security and the Threat of Climate Change (Washington, DC: CNA Corporation 2007), p. 9.
L. Allan James, “Water Resources as a Model of Opportunities, Challenges, and Strategies for Geographers”, Association of American Geographers Newsletter 26 (2011), p. 9.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007 (AR4), Working Group II Report “Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability” (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2007), p. 3.5.1.
David Michel, “A River Runs Through It: Climate Change, Security Challenges, and Shared Water Resources”, in David Michel and Amit Pandya (eds), Troubled Waters Climate Change, Hydropolitics, and Transboundary Resources (Washington, DC: The Henry L. Stimson Center, 2009), p. 73.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report (Geneva: IPCC, 2007), p. 49.
F. Fung, A. Lopez, and M. New, “Water Availability in +2°C and +4°CWorlds”, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society 369 (2011), p. 112.
Etienne Berthier, Yves Arnaud, Rajesh Kumar, Sarafaz Ahmad, Patrick Wagon, and Pierre Chevallier, “Remote Sensing Estimates of Glacier Mass Balances in the Himachal Pradesh (Western Himalaya, India)”, Remote Sensing of Environment 108 (2007), p. 327
J. Bahadur, Himalayan Glaciers (New Delhi: Vigyan Rasar, 1998)
Brook Larmer, “The Big Melt”, National Geographic Magazine 217 (April 2010), p. 68.
Y. Ageta et al., “Characteristics of Mass Balance of the Summer Accumulation Type Glacier in the Nepal Himalaya”, Seppyo 45 (1983), pp. 81–105
Nozumu Naito et al., “Glacier Shrinkages and Climate Conditions Around Jichu Dramo Glacier in the Bhutan Himalayas from 1998 to 2003”, Bulletin of Glaciological Research 23 (2006), p. 51.
Xie Zichu et al., “A Modeling Study of the Variable Glacier System-using Southern Tibet as an Example”, Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology 24 (2001), pp. 16–27
Joe Thomas and Sandeep Chamling Rai, An Overview of Glaciers, Glacier Retreat, and Subsequent Impacts in Nepal, India and China (Kathmandu: WWF Nepal Program, 2005), p. 57.
Bodo Bookhagen and Douglas Burbank, “Toward a Complete Himalayan Hydrological Budget: Spatiotemporal Distribution of Snowmelt and Rainfall and their Impact on River Discharge”, Journal of Geophysical Research 115 (2010), p. 22.
Nozumu Naito et al., “Glacier Shrinkages and Climate Conditions Around Jichu Dramo Glacier in the Bhutan Himalayas from 1998 to 2003”, pp. 51–61; and T. Karma et al., “Glacier Distribution in the Himalayas and Glacier Shrinkage from 1963–1993 in Bhutan Himalayas”, Bulletin of Glaciological Research 20 (2003), pp. 29–40.
Etienne Berthier et al., “Remote Sensing Estimates of Glacier Mass Balances in the Himachal Pradesh (Western Himalaya, India)”, pp. 327–328; and Etienne Berthier et al., “Biases of SRTM in High Mountain Areas: Implications for the Monitoring of Glacial Volume Changes”, Geophysical Research Letters 33 (2006), pp. 1–8
J. Gardelle, Y. Arnaud, and E. Berthier, “Contrasted Evolution of Glacial Lakes Along the Hindu Kush Himalaya Mountain Range between 1990 and 2009”, Global and Planetary Change 75 (2011), pp. 47–55
Sean Cook, Remote Sensing for Assessing Glacial Hazards in the Bhutan Himalayas, Preliminary Summary Report (Fullerton, CA: CSU-F Department of Geography/Center for Remote Sensing, submitted to Bhutan Department of Geology and Mines, 7 June 2011).
Sean Cook, Remote Sensing for Assessing Glacial Hazards in the Bhutan Himalayas, Preliminary Summary Report; and Rakesh Bhambril and Tobias Bolch, “Glacier Mapping: A Review with Special Reference to the Indian Himalayas”, Progress in Physical Geography 33 (2009), pp. 672–704.
F. Paul et al., “Recent Glacier Changes in the Alps Observed by Satellite: Consequences for Future Monitoring Studies”, Global and Planetary Change 56 (2007), pp. 111–122
G. Kaser et al., “Mass Balance of Glaciers and Ice Caps: Consensus Estimates for 1961–2004”, Geophysical Research Letters 33 (2006), pp. 1–5.
B. C. Bates, Z. W. Kundzewicz, S. Wu, and J. P. Palutikof (eds), Climate Change and Water, Technical Paper of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Geneva: IPCC Secretariat, June 2008), pp. 87–88.
Y. Ageta et al. “Study Project on the Recent Rapid Shrinkage of Summer-accumulation Type Glaciers in the Himalayas”, Bulletin of Geophysical Research 18 (2001), pp. 45–49
A. Anthwal et al., “Retreat of the Himalayan Glaciers — Indicators of Climate Change”, Nature and Society 4 (2006), pp. 53–59
T. Yao et al., “Recent Glacial Retreat and Its Impact on Hydrological Processes on the Tibetan Plateau, China and Surrounding Regions”, Arctic and Alpine Research 39 (2007), pp. 642–650
L. Thompson, “Understanding Global Climate Change: Paleoclimate Perspective from the World’ Highest Mountains”, Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society 154 (2010), p. 147.
Jiro Komuri, “Recent Expansion of Glacial Lakes in the Bhutan Himalayas”, Quaternary International 84 (2008), pp. 177–186
Y. Ageta et al., “Expansion of Glacial Lakes in Recent Decades in the Bhutan Himalayas”, Debris Covered Glaciers, IAHS 264 (2000), pp. 165–175
K. Hewitt, “The Karakoram Anomaly? Glacier Expansion and the ‘Elevation Effect’, Karakoram Himalaya”, Mountain Research and Development 25 (2005), pp. 332–340.
L. P. H. van Beek, and M. F. P. Bierkens, “Climate Change and the Asian Water Towers”, Science 328 (June 2010), pp. 1382–1385.
T. Barnett, J. Adam, and D. Lettenmaier, “Potential Impacts of a Warming Climate on Water Availability in Snow-dominated Regions”, Nature 438 (2005), p. 306.
D. Cyranoski, “The Long-range Forecast”, Nature 438 (2005), p. 275.
T. Karma, “Bhutan Himalayas: The Little Third Polar Region”, Bhutan Geology 8 (April 2005), p. 4.
Ibid. p. 4; and U. Haritashya, “Hydrological Importance of an Unusual Hazard in a Mountainous Basin: Flood and Landslide”, Hydrological Processes 20 (2006), pp. 3147–3154.
J. Liu, “Highland Lake and Water Management on Great Asian Mountains: Significance, Challenges, and Knowledge Gaps”, Asian Journal of Water, Environment, and Pollution 1 (2004), pp. 13–16.
Joe Thomas and Sandeep Chamling Rai, An Overview of Glaciers, Glacier Retreat, and Subsequent Impacts in Nepal, India and China, p.3; and Yoshiyuki Konagaya, “Characteristics of Disasters in Bhutan”, Bhutan Geology 8 (April 2005), p. 28.
ICIMOD/UNEP, Inventory of Glaciers, Glacier Lakes and Glacial Lake Outburst Floods, Monitoring and Early Warning System in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan Region, Nepal (Kathmandu: ICIMOD/UNEP, 2001), p. 247.
T. Watanabe and D. Rotacher, “The 1994 Lugge Tsho Glacial Lake Outburst Flood, Bhutan Himalayas”, Mountain Research and Development 16 (1996), pp. 77–81
Committee on Development, DRAFT REPORT on Financing of Reinforcement of Dam Infrastructure in Developing Countries (Brussels: European Parliament, 2010), p. 4, http://www.europarl.europa.eu/meetdocs/2009_2014/documents/deve/pr/ 859/859696/859696en.pdf, accessed 15 August 2011.
World Bank, Climate Change Water: South Asia’s Lifeline at Risk (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2011), http://siteresources.worldbank.org/ SOUTHASIAEXT/Resources/223546-1171488994713/3455847-1227656528691/SARlifelineatrisk. pdf, accessed 24 August 2011.
P. Webster et al., “Extended-range Probabilistic Forecasts of Ganges and Brahmaputra Floods in Bangladesh”, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 91 (2010), p. 1493.
R. Schubert et al., Climate Change as a Security Risk (Berlin: German Advisory Council Global Change, 2008), p. 110.
M. G. Sanderson, D. L. Hemming, and R. A. Betts, “Regional Temperature and Precipitation Changes under High-end (4° C) Global Warming”, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society 369 (2011), p. 93.
M. A. Palmer et al., “Climate Change and the World’s River Basins: Anticipating Management Options”, Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 6 (2008), p. 85.
F. Fung, A. Lopez, and M. New, “Water Availability in +2?C and +4?C Worlds”, p. 112; and K. Dairaku, S. Emori, and T. Nozawa, “Impacts of Global Warming on Hydrological Cycles in the Asian Monsoon Region”, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 25 (2008), pp. 960–973.
Aiguo Dai et al., “Changes in Continental Freshwater Discharge from 1948 to 2004”, Journal of Climate 22 (2009), p. 2773.
Suppakorn Chinvanno. “Information for Sustainable Development in the Light of Climate Change in the Mekong River Basin”, Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) Applications for Sustainable Development Part II (Bangkok: SEA start, 2003), p. 113.
Suppakorn Chinvanno, “Future Climate Projection f or Thailand and Surrounding Countries: Climate Change Scenario of 21st Century”, in S. Chinvanno (ed.), Regional Assessments and Profiles of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in PRC, Thailand and Viet Nam: Biodiversity, Food Security, Water Resources and Rural Livelihoods in the GMS (Bangkok: Southeast Asia START Regional Center, 2009), pp. 12–13
Military Advisory Board, National Security and the Threat of Climate Change (Washington, DC: CNA Corporation, 2007), p. 24.
Michael Klare, “Global Warming Battlefields: How Climate Change Threatens Security”, Current History 106 (November 2007), p. 360.
Susmita Dasgupta et al., The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Developing Countries: A Comparative Analysis, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 4136 (Washington, DC: World Bank 2007), p. 2.
Danny Marks, “Climate Change and Thailand: Impact and Response”, Contemporary Southeast Asia 33 (2011), p. 233.
J. R. P. Somboon, “Coastal Geomorohic Responses to Future Sea-level Rise and its Implications for the Low-lying Areas of Bangkok Metropolis”, Southeast Asian Studies 28 (1990), pp. 162
Arief Anshory Yusuf and Herminia Francisco, Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia (Singapore: Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia 2009), p. 6.
Jared Diamond, Collapse How Societies Choose to Succeed or Fail (New York: Viking 2005), p. 421.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Copyright information
© 2013 Robert G. Wirsing, Daniel C. Stoll, and Christopher Jasparro
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Wirsing, R.G., Stoll, D.C., Jasparro, C. (2013). Challenge of Climate Change in Himalayan Asia. In: International Conflict over Water Resources in Himalayan Asia. Critical Studies of the Asia Pacific Series. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137292193_2
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137292193_2
Publisher Name: Palgrave Macmillan, London
Print ISBN: 978-1-349-31522-2
Online ISBN: 978-1-137-29219-3
eBook Packages: Palgrave Political & Intern. Studies CollectionPolitical Science and International Studies (R0)