Nominations and Elections in an Era of Partisanship

Abstract

Presidential elections tend to come in phases. We began the first volume of this series on The Pursuit of the Presidency by pointing out that of the twelve elections held in the period from 1932 through 1976 the Democrats won eight and the Republicans just four and that of the six presidents elected during this period, only two of them were Republicans. In only three of these twelve elections did the Republican candidate win more than 50 percent of the vote, whilst the Democrats averaged 50 percent. In terms of the electoral vote, the Democrats averaged 302 whilst the Republicans averaged only 222. In the next seven elections, those held from 1980 through 2004, everything changed. Of these seven elections, the Republicans won five, elected three different presidents, won more than 50 percent of the vote on four occasions, and averaged 332 electoral votes. The Democrats, meanwhile, won only two of these 7 elections, elected only one president, failed to win 50 percent of the vote in any of them, and averaged only 206 electoral votes. In 2008, the tables seemed to turn once again to the extent that following the 2012 election commentators were suggesting that there was for the present at least a Democratic lock on the Electoral College whilst the GOP was doomed to destruction unless it radically altered its policies and appeal. Time will tell whether or not such forecasts are accurate.