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Risk, Security and International Law

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Abstract

There is a strong intersection between risk, security and the law. Legal systems serve as an important way that risk – be it business risk or political risk – can be mitigated. The law is, however, far more effective at regulating financial contracts or measures affecting individuals than it is regulating the behaviour of states parties in the international system, where relative scale and power matter. All legal systems rely upon the authority of the court, and the ability of the court to impose sanctions on transgressing parties. This is why power and influence matter in international law: capable (and therefore powerful) states are able to resist or ignore international law and to ignore any sanction that might follow. Less powerful states are less able to do so. The strength of very capable nations – and the US provides the key example for this in the chapter – has such latent capabilities that they are able to impose their domestic law upon third countries: extraterritorialising their legal system. This chapter explores extraterritorialisation, emphasising the importance this concept is beginning to play in the international system, and can be foreseen to do so in the medium term. This chapter is divided into two main sections, covering first how we might choose to reframe political risk, and second, understanding of how law and political power intersects with international security.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Confirmation of empirical evidence and of hypotheses is subject to a great weight of academic material. The key critique of many academic disciplines is the weakness of the empirical data to the conclusion (see Bunge, 1967, pp. 315–328).

  2. 2.

    If we look at chemistry, as a discipline, then we learn that maintaining equilibrium or stasis consumes far more energy than disequilibrium to the point where chemists assert that the natural order is that of disequilibrium.

  3. 3.

    Bunge points out in his earlier work that historically drawn prediction has ‘little or no test value’ because we cannot test what would have happened in the absence of the forecast (Bunge, 1967, p. 93).

  4. 4.

    Scientific realists would prefer the term ‘confirming’ to ‘validating’.

  5. 5.

    This can be formally expressed for us to test as: P(a,c) = X [R(a) – R(c)]. (The equation is adapted from Bunge M (1998, p. 160.) That is power (P) is exercised by a over c, leading to the outcome X, when the resources of a are superior to c. And this common sense example, expressed formally, allows us to test it in relation to different scenarios.

  6. 6.

    For example, In June 2003, a Spanish judge exercised jurisdiction based on the universality principle, over Ricardo Miguel Cavallo, a former Argentine naval officer, who was extradited from the UK to Spain pending his trial on charges of genocide and terrorism relating to the rule of the Argentinian Junta.

  7. 7.

    For example, 1963 Tokyo Convention on Offences Abroad Aircraft, art 4, 1984 Torture Convention. The Alcoa case (US v. Aluminium Company of America and others, 1945, p. 416) decided by the US court in 1945, introduced the effects-based doctrine. The court somewhat contentiously considered it a ‘settled law’ that ‘any state may impose liabilities for conduct outside its borders that have consequences within its borders’ (US v. Aluminium Company of America and others 1945, p. 443).

  8. 8.

    As per the ruling (Coard et al. v. the United States 1999, p. 37).

  9. 9.

    For the full account of the evidence behind the penalties see US State Department (2011).

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Dover, R. (2017). Risk, Security and International Law. In: Dover, R., Dylan, H., Goodman, M. (eds) The Palgrave Handbook of Security, Risk and Intelligence. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-137-53675-4_23

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