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Evaluating GCM Output with Impact Models

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Abstract

This study uses empirical agricultural impact models to compare the U.S. climate change predictions of 16 General Circulation Models (GCMs). The impact analysis provides a policy-relevant index by which to judge complex climate predictions. National aggregate impacts vary widely across the 16 GCMs because of varying regional and seasonal patterns of predicted climate change. Examining the predicted impacts from the full set of GCMs reveals that the seasonal detail in the GCM predictions is so noisy that it is not significantly different from a constant annual change. However, a consistent regional pattern does emerge across the set of models. Nonetheless, aggregating climate change across seasons and regions within the United States, using a national-annual climate change provides a reasonable and efficient approximation to the expected impact predicted by the 16 GCM models.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Electric Power Research Institute, 3412 Hillview Avenue, Palo Alto, CA, 94303, U.S.A

    Larry J. Williams

  2. Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan ROC

    Daigee Shaw

  3. Yale University, New Haven, CT, 06511, U.S.A

    Robert Mendelsohn

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  1. Larry J. Williams
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  2. Daigee Shaw
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  3. Robert Mendelsohn
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Williams, L.J., Shaw, D. & Mendelsohn, R. Evaluating GCM Output with Impact Models. Climatic Change 39, 111–133 (1998). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005369006034

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