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Developing a Rutting Prediction Model for HMA Pavements Using the LTPP Database

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A Correction to this article was published on 16 August 2023

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Abstract

Generally, asphalt concrete experiences permanent deformation due to its exposure to repeated traffic loading during its service life at high temperatures. The objective of this study was to provide an efficient and quick predictive model to easily assess the rutting potential in hot regions. The model was developed using materials properties, traffic, and climatic data gathered from the Long-Term Pavement Performance (LTPP) InfoPave database for 20 different sections in the Dry Freeze and Dry Non-Freeze regions. Performance prediction is one of the widely used methods to assess pavement performance during its service life. It is also used to in pavement management techniques to accommodate the pavement response for specific conditions. Thus, a multiple linear regression model was developed based on data collected from the LTPP database with an R2 of 0.837 and a Se/Sy ratio of 0.47. This model predicts the rutting depth of Hot Mix Asphalt Concrete (HMA) pavements for given structure, climatic conditions, traffic levels and volumetrics properties of asphalt mixtures. The robustness of this model was also compared to two existing models in the literature and was shown to be accurate. In addition, the rutting resistance of various flexible pavement sections at hot and moderate climatic regions within the USA were compared. Based on the collected data, its was found that the maximum temperature had a significant impact on rutting, where higher temperatures increased the rutting development in pavements. On the other hand, some disparities in the measured rutting depth from different states (AZ vs TX) for similar traffic, climate conditions and mixture characteristics were noted. It was explained by the possible improvement in the mix design in certain location, as well as the different aggregates used and construction practices. For those reasons, the overall mechanical response of an HMA pavement is typically governed by the properties of its constituents.

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Data availability

The data used to support the findings of this study are included in this document. Other data used in this study are available in a repository or online in accordance with funder data retention policies: - Long Term Pavement Performance: InfoPave Database: https://infopave.fhwa.dot.gov/Data/DataSelection.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank Dr. Kamil Kaloush for his guidance, support, and input on this study.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Arizona State University, PO Box 875306, Tempe, AZ, 85287-3005, USA

    Jolina Karam & Hossein Noorvand

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  1. Jolina Karam
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  2. Hossein Noorvand
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Contributions

The authors confirm contribution to the paper as follows: study concept and layout: JK, and HN; data collection, analysis, and interpretation of results: HN and JK; draft manuscript preparation: JK and HN. All authors reviewed the results and approved the final version of the manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Jolina Karam.

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The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

Additional information

Unfortunately, the original article was published without the author's final correction requests.

The errors identified in the manuscript pertain to the presence of both unit systems, imperial and metric. The correction now includes both systems with the metric values present between parenthesis next to the imperial one within the text and tables. This error does not affect any result or analysis present in the paper.

In this article, Tables 1, 2, 5 and 6 were misrepresented and now include both imperial and metric values. Furthermore, the following text was modified where both values are now clarified:

• In text: Section 5.1: “The second cluster indicates that while temperature increases within the clusters, a slight increase in the rutting values was observed. This is explained by the fact that the sections located in Arizona have thicker layer thicknesses of the asphalt layer in the range of 8–11 in (20–28 cm) compared with the other sections with an asphalt layer thickness of range of 3–5 in (7.6–12.7 cm).”

• In section 5.2: “a. The Interstate System, having the highest classification of roadways in the United States, provides the highest level of mobility and the highest speeds over the longest uninterrupted distance. They usually have posted speeds between 55 and 75 mph (88 and 120 km/hr); b. Collectors are major and minor roads that connect local roads and streets with arterials. Collectors provide less mobility than arterials at lower speeds and for shorter distances. The posted speed limit on collectors is usually between 35 and 55 mph (56 and 88 km/hr); c. Other Arterials include freeways, multilane highways, and other important roadways that supplement the Interstate System. They connect, as directly as practicable, the Nation’s principal urbanized areas, cities, and industrial centers. Land access is limited. Posted speed limits on arterials usually range between 50 and 70 mph (80 and 112 km/hr); d. Local roads provide limited mobility and are the primary access to residential areas, businesses, farms, and other local areas. Local roads, with posted speed limits usually between 20 and 45 mph (32 and 72 km/hr), are the majority of roads in the U.S.”

• In section 5.5.1: “For 19 of the 24 GPS sites, the predicted rut depth was within 0.2 in (5 mm) of the measured rut depth.”

This misunderstanding has since been adjusted to ease the reading and understanding of the reader. Please excuse this error.

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Karam, J., Noorvand, H. Developing a Rutting Prediction Model for HMA Pavements Using the LTPP Database. Int. J. Pavement Res. Technol. (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s42947-023-00340-9

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