Introduction

Water scarcity and the inefficient use of water resources for food production are critical and persistent challenges in various developing regions around the world. These challenges are especially noticeable in the arid and hyper-arid zones of North Africa, where the dual impact of climate change and rapid population growth is expected to further exacerbate existing water scarcity issues (Schilling et al., 2020). Egypt, the most populous country in North Africa (Worldometer, 2023), faces significant challenges related to its water resources and food production due to its unique geographical and hydrological circumstances. The Nile River is the primary source of blue water in Egypt (water in rivers, lakes, and aquifers). Egypt receives about 55.5 billion cubic meters (BCM) from the Nile and 1.0 BCM from the Nubian aquifer (AQUASTAT, 2016). About 2.0 BCM of freshwater originates from internal effective rainfall, resulting in a 97% dependency on external water resources (Ayyad & Khalifa, 2021). Egypt’s supply of available blue freshwater is projected to decline from 570 to 360 cubic meters per capita by 2050, implying a state of absolute water scarcity (Ayyad & Khalifa, 2021).

While the total renewable freshwater resources stand at 58.5 BCM, total water abstractions amount to 80 BCM (Omar & Moussa, 2016). This gap is mainly mitigated through extensive water reuse and non-renewable groundwater extraction. However, the reuse of drainage and sewage water in the Nile Delta affects negatively its soils, crop productivity, and human health (Kheir et al., 2021a), while the heavy reliance on fossil groundwater leads to its depletion and salinization (El-Agha et al., 2023). Agriculture is the largest consumer of water in Egypt, receiving about 62 BCM for the predominant surface irrigation practices to mainly produce food (AbuZeid, 2020). Additionally, Egypt imports about 50 BCM and exports 7.0 BCM of virtual water embedded in food crops annually, making the country a net importer of at least 40 BCM of virtual water (Abdelkader et al., 2018; AbuZeid, 2020; Nikiel & Eltahir, 2021). Therefore, further blue water scarcity can induce shortages in food supply, surges in food prices, and food insecurity, thereby increasing the vulnerability of the agricultural sector and communities.

With a limited scope for further developing water resources, Egypt is likely to face serious challenges in securing sufficient additional water to boost food production to keep pace with its rapidly growing population and will likely continue relying on food imports especially for cereals (Abdelkader et al., 2018; Ayyad & Khalifa, 2021; Nikiel & Eltahir, 2021). To sustain crop production by 2050 under current production efficiencies, Egypt would need 110 BCM of water instead of the 62 BCM currently allocated for agriculture, which may not be feasible given the country’s limited water budget (Ayyad & Khalifa, 2021). This projected rise also highlights the need for expanding the cultivated area. Despite a cropping intensity of 190% (at least two crops per year on > 90% of the cropland area - CAPMAS, 2023), Egypt will still need to expand its currently harvested area of 6.6 million ha (Mha) to 9.2 Mha by 2050 (Ayyad & Khalifa, 2021). These projections reveal the significant hurdles Egypt will encounter in securing water and land resources for future crop production, without accounting for future food imports, industrial and domestic water usage, and the anticipated impacts of climate change that are expected to increase crop water requirements (Mostafa et al., 2021).

Given their strategic significance for Egypt, food crops with strategic significance, such as rice (Oryza sativa), maize (Zea mays), and wheat (Triticum aestivum), and the forage crop berseem clover (Trifolium alexandrinum), dominate the cultivated cropland area and contribute the major share of daily calories for its population (FAOSTAT, 2023). At national scale, rice, maize, wheat, and berseem occupied an average of 7, 15, 20, and 10% of the total harvested areas in Egypt during the period from 2016 to 2020, respectively. During the same period, Egypt allocated about 8.5, 9.0, 6.5, and 4.0 BCM per year of irrigation water for cultivating rice, maize, wheat, and berseem, respectively, accounting for almost half of Egypt’s total renewable freshwater resources (CAPMAS, 2023). Additionally, Egypt is currently a net importer of wheat, maize, and rice given the gap between the country’s domestic production capacity and demand for these crops (FAOSTAT, 2023). Nevertheless, the extent to which the production of these crops might be improved and how this would impact future water and land requirements remains poorly understood.

Several studies estimated the water and land resources required to sustain future crop supply in Egypt (e.g., Asseng et al., 2018; Abdelkader et al., 2018; Abdelaal & Thilmany, 2019; Ayyad & Khalifa, 2021; Nikiel & Eltahir, 2021). While these studies adopted scenario-based approaches and used various methods and datasets, they lacked a comprehensive quantification of potential improvements in crop production, specifically by enhancing water savings and increasing crop yields. Presently, there are no published studies providing in-depth information on improvements of crop yields and water savings for the main crops in Egypt. Multsch et al. (2017) assumed normative values for potential improvements in irrigation efficiency in Egypt, ranging between 5 and 15%. Ayyad and Khalifa (2021) estimated a potential increase in the yield of cereal crops of 10–15% and in agricultural water savings of 5–10%, using historical yield values and remote sensing data, and covering the total cropland of the country without distinguishing between specific crop types.

Against this background, it becomes imperative to understand and quantify potential improvements in the production of major crops to determine which crops and parameters requiring interventions. This can serve as pivotal entry points for designing interventions and guiding investments to enhance crop production and conserving vital water and land resources. Such knowledge is lacking in Egypt, and in many other developing regions, mainly due to the lack of detailed crop type maps and sufficient ground data. To explore desirable future agricultural development pathways, assessments are required that are based on integrating publicly available data and that incorporate crop-specific spatial and temporal dimensions. Our work focused on Egypt, however, there are many other developing nations with similar conditions to those of Egypt. The typical main similarities encompass (i) the significant gaps between resource availability and demand/consumption; (ii) the heavy reliance on blue water for irrigation practices; and (iii) the scarcity of ground data. Under these conditions, a comprehensive quantification of potential improvements in water savings and crop yields becomes indispensable. Moreover, exploring future water and land requirements for crop production in such regions is crucial for policymakers in order to be prepared and apply appropriate interventions in a timely manner. The quantification of potential improvements is necessary to construct plausible scenarios of future demand for resources. Not only does the spatio-temporal analysis of crop yields and water consumption help quantify potential improvements that are used to construct future scenarios, but it also allows to highlight opportunities in improving specific crop parameters and to set priorities when applying interventions.

In this study, we quantify the potential improvements in three remote sensing-derived performance indicators for rice, wheat, maize, and berseem in a benchmark case study in the Nile Delta (the Zankalon region). These indicators comprise (i) crop yield: the harvested production per unit of land area, (ii) crop water productivity (CWP): the harvested production per unit of water consumed (actual evapotranspiration, AET), and (iii) transpiration fraction (T/AET): crop transpiration to actual evapotranspiration. Based on this quantification, we extrapolate the detected potential improvements from Zankalon to the national level of Egypt and construct plausible scenarios of future water and land requirements to sustain domestic production of the four crops until 2050. Subsequently, we propose a set of interventions to address the future challenge of sustaining the supply of these crops in Egypt. The novelty of our study lies in (1) the detailed quantification of potential improvements at the crop level, (2) providing outlooks as to how these improvements will influence the future demand for water and land in Egypt, and (3) the developed methodological approach, integrating multiple types of open-access datasets to quantify improvements in crop production and project demand for crops and resources in data-scarce regions. Such insights will permit to pinpoint opportunities to enhance production efficiency and to conserve water and land resources in the future. Our findings and the methodological approach are useful for and potentially applicable to other parts of the world, especially those with conditions similar to those encountered in Egypt, where the use of water and land resources must be improved.

Materials and methods

The Zankalon Region of the Nile Delta

To detect potential improvements in cultivating the four major crops in Egypt, we needed to follow a crop-specific approach. In the absence of detailed crop type maps covering the entire cropland extent in Egypt, conducting such crop-specific analysis at the national level was not feasible. Therefore, we identified the Zankalon region, located mostly within the governorate of Sharkia in the Nile Delta (Fig. 1a), as a benchmark case study to detect the potential improvements in performance indicators for the four crops and subsequently extrapolate the findings to the national level. The choice of Zankalon was made for several reasons: (1) the extensive availability of satellite observations for crop type mapping and for estimating performance indicators at high spatial and temporal resolutions over Zankalon (Sect. WaPOR Datasets ); (2) Zankalon represents about 5% of the old lands under the predominant surface irrigation practices in the Nile Delta, where about 65% of all cropland in Egypt is located (Ayyad et al., 2019; Hereher, 2013); and (3) the extensive cultivation of the four crops under investigation in Zankalon and in all Egypt. During the summer season (May–October), rice and maize account for 78 and 9%, respectively, of the total cropland area in Zankalon, while 45 and 43% of the area are cultivated with wheat and berseem during the winter season (October–April), respectively (FAO, 2023b). The monthly average temperatures, precipitation, and reference evapotranspiration reflecting the seasonality in Zankalon are presented in Fig. 1b.

Fig. 1
figure 1

a) Location map of the Zankalon region in the Nile Delta. Cropland areas: (FAO, 2023b), national boundary: https://www.naturalearthdata.com/, Sharkia governorate: https://www.diva-gis.org/. b) Average monthly temperatures, precipitation, and reference evapotranspiration over Zankalon for the period 2010–2019. Precipitation & reference evapotranspiration: (FAO, 2023b), temperature: (Harris et al., 2020)

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Our analysis of Zankalon aims at estimating potential improvements in performance indicators across fields in Zankalon as relative values (percentages) rather than absolute values to accommodate the understanding that absolute values from Zankalon may not be fully representative to all irrigated areas across Egypt. For these reasons, Zankalon appears to be a suitable and representative case study to detect variation in performance indicators for the four crops.

Methodological Approach

We integrated remote sensing datasets, national statistics, and secondary data from literature to quantify the potential improvements in three performance indicators in Zankalon and used this quantification to construct plausible scenarios of future water and land demands to sustain domestic production of the four strategic crops in Egypt as outlined in Fig. 2. The data inputs used in this study and their corresponding sources are summarized in Table 1. The proposed approach encompasses three phases: (i) extracting cropland areas for the selected crops and estimate their corresponding performance indicators in Zankalon, namely crop yield, crop water productivity (CWP), and transpiration fraction (T/AET) (Fig. 2a); (ii) benchmarking these performance indicators and estimating their potential improvements in Zankalon (Fig. 2b); and (iii) using the estimated potential improvements to construct scenarios of future water and land demand to sustain production of the selected crops by 2050 in all Egypt (Fig. 2c). We studied the most recent performance of irrigated agriculture in Egypt from 2016 to 2021.

Fig. 2
figure 2

The proposed methodological approach showing the workflow and steps. Boxes highlighted in green represent data variables distributed through WaPOR. Boxes highlighted in red are data based on literature and those highlighted in black are sourced from secondary sources. Boxes highlighted in blue represent results of own processing

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Table 1 Input data and sources used in the analysis
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WaPOR Datasets

To achieve the study objectives in this data-scarce region, we used the high-resolution open-access datasets from FAO’s portal to monitor water productivity through open access remotely sensed derived data (WaPOR v2.1; https://wapor.apps.fao.org/home/WAPOR_2/3) and GIS techniques. WaPOR provides datasets needed to estimate performance indicators at spatial resolutions of 250 m (level-1; covering Africa and the Near East), 100 m (level-2; for some countries and river basins), and 30 m (level-3; for some sub-national sites). Herein, we focused on the Zankalon region in Egypt covered by WaPOR’s level-3 at 30 m spatial resolution and 10-day timesteps. We used multiple datasets from WaPOR to conduct this analysis (Table 1). WaPOR’s datasets have gained recognition in recent years and have been increasingly used to monitor these parameters (Ayyad et al., 2022; Chukalla et al., 2022; Safi et al., 2022, Safi et al., 2023). The high quality of WaPOR’s datasets in estimating some of these parameters is reported in literature. For example, WaPOR demonstrated high performance reproducing the conservative relationship between biomass and AET in irrigated cropland in Ethiopia and Mozambique (Seijger et al., 2023). Ayyad and Khalifa (2021) have reported the efficacy of WaPOR’s land cover dataset in delineating irrigated areas within Egypt. Similarly, WaPOR performed well in estimating AET over the Nile region (McNamara et al., 2021) and was recommended for inter-plot comparison over irrigated areas in several regions in Africa (Blatchford et al., 2020). Further grounds for choosing WaPOR’s data are the open accessibility through public domain, and the continuity of WaPOR’s mission, allowing for the operationalization and use of these products in future research. The required datasets were downloaded and processed in the ArcGIS environment (ESRI, 2019).

Land Cover Analysis

WaPOR’s level-3 land cover/crop type dataset is available at 10-day timesteps, which allows for detecting the start and end of season for each crop. We determined season lengths for each crop and season, which were then used to calculate the other variables required for the analysis. The average lengths of growing season were 150 (± 5), 130 (± 4), 190 (± 7), and 210 (± 5) days for rice, maize, wheat, and berseem, respectively. For each crop, one crop type map was extracted at the vegetative stage and used as the crop type layer for the corresponding season in further steps. The result of this step was one crop type map for each crop and season, i.e., five crop type maps for each crop for the period 2016–2021 (Fig. 2, step#1).

Performance Indicators

We used three main performance indicators derived from WaPOR datasets:

  1. (i)

    Transpiration fraction (T/AET, dimensionless): the ratio of transpiration (T, in m3/ha), which pertains to the productive portion of actual evapotranspiration (AET), to the total AET (in m3/ha) that includes both productive and nonproductive evaporation fluxes.

  2. (ii)

    Crop yield (in t/ha): represents the quantity of harvest produced per unit area.

  3. (iii)

    Crop water productivity (CWP, in kg/m3): represents the yield generated per unit of water consumed and calculated as the ratio of yield to AET.

These indicators were calculated for each crop in each season and averaged over the 5-year period to alleviate potential anomalies (Fig. 2: step #2). Firstly, we estimated seasonal T and AET by aggregating their 10-day values of the respective growth season for each crop. Subsequently, T/AET was computed by dividing the seasonal T by the corresponding seasonal AET.

WaPOR estimates crop yield by calculating the seasonal net primary production (NPP) and converting it to aboveground biomass (AGB) (Eq. 1) and subsequently to crop yield (Eq. 2) (FAO, 2020a).

$$AGB\; = \;NPP\; \times \;22.222\; \times \;AoT$$
(1)
$${\rm{Yield}}\;{\rm{ = }}\;{{{\rm{AGB}}\;{\rm{ \times }}\;{\rm{HI}}} \over {{\rm{(1}}\;{\rm{ - \theta )}}}}\; \times \;{\rm{LU}}{{\rm{E}}_{\rm{c}}}$$
(2)

where AoT is the ratio of aboveground biomass to total biomass. 22.222 is a scaling factor to convert NPP to dry matter (1 gC/m²/day (NPP) = 22.222 kg DM/ha/day). θ is the moisture content of the harvested biomass (in %). HI is the harvest index and represents the harvestable fraction of biomass. LUEc refers to the light use efficiency (LUE) correction factor, representing the ratio between the actual LUE (crop-specific) and the LUE (generic value for cropland of 2.7 MJ g− 1) that WaPOR uses for calculating NPP (FAO, 2020b). These parameters are unique to the location and varieties under study. We compiled crop parameters from relevant literature sources for the four crops under investigation and used their averages (Table 2). We found values for some of these parameters specifically for crops in Egypt. For some parameters, we relied on values reported from crops in other arid and semi-arid regions such as Australia, India, China, and the USA. Subsequently, CWP was calculated by dividing the total seasonal yield by the corresponding seasonal AET for each crop and season. For berseem, both crop yield and CWP values were further multiplied by 0.14 to convert from fresh to dry biomass values (Dost et al., 2014).

Table 2 Crop parameters used for each crop in this study
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Benchmarking Potential Improvements of Performance Indicators

Benchmarking involves estimating average values of performance indicators and identifying higher achievable values of these indicators within Zankalon. We analyzed the 5-year average values of performance indicators and set upper threshold percentiles to gauge potential improvements (Fig. 2b). The selection of upper threshold percentiles vary among studies, typically ranging from 70 to 95% (Licker et al., 2010; Mekonnen et al., 2020; Mekonnen & Hoekstra, 2014; Safi et al., 2022; Zwart & Bastiaanssen, 2004). We calculated three threshold percentiles at 80, 90, and 95% to provide insights into scenarios of higher potential improvements. Subsequently, we expressed these three potential improvements as percentages relative to the averages rather than absolute values (Eq. 3; Fig. 2: step #3).

$$\eqalign{& Potential\;improvement{s_{\;Zankalon}}\; = \cr & {{Threshold\;percentiles\;\left( {80,\;90,\;\;95\% } \right) - average\;value} \over {average\;value}} \times {\rm{100}} \cr} $$
(3)

The choice of presenting potential improvements in percentage terms was driven by two considerations. First, it acknowledges that absolute values would exclusively reflect the Zankalon region as part of the Delta’s old lands. Second, it mitigates reliance on WaPOR’s accuracy in estimating performance indicators, as the possibility of systematic under- or overestimation for certain parameters exists (Blatchford et al., 2020; FAO, 2020b; McNamara et al., 2021; Weerasinghe et al., 2020). The identified percentage improvements were used to model future water and land demand for four crops at the national level (Fig. 2c).

To explore the variability of performance indicators in Zankalon further, we calculated spatial and temporal coefficients of variation (CV = standard deviation/mean) for each indicator over the period 2016–2021. Temporal CV measures the interannual variation across the 5-year time series, while spatial CV indicates spatial variability across cropland pixels on the 5-year average maps.

Scenario Development

To build future scenarios for all Egypt based on calculated performance indicators and potential improvements detected in Zankalon, a comprehensive analysis of domestic crop production and population growth is essential. Consequently, we obtained time series of historical and forecasted total population (medium fertility variant) as well as crop statistics, including cultivated area, yield, and production quantities of the studied crops at the national level of Egypt (Table 1).

Based on available data, the periods 2000–2020 for rice, maize, and wheat, and 2004–2020 for berseem, were selected to estimate the average per capita domestic production of each crop in kg/capita/year (Eq. 4). Next, we calculated future demand for each crop to be produced domestically in Egypt from 2021 to 2050 (Eq. 5, Fig. 2: step #4).

$$\eqalign{Per\;capita\;domestic\; & production{\;_{2000 - 2020}} = \cr & {{Annual\;domestic\;production} \over {population}} \cr} $$
(4)
$$\eqalign{& Future\;demand\;for\;crop{\;_{2021 - 2050}} = \cr & per\;capita\;production{\;_{2000 - 2020}} \times population{\;_{2021 - 2050}} \cr} $$
(5)

To calculate future water and land demands of the four crops in all Egypt, it was imperative to compute representative values for crop yield, CWP, and T/AET at the national scale. In the absence of T/AET values in literature sources, we used values resulting from the Zankalon analysis (2016–2021) to represent potential improvements at the national level of Egypt. Average national crop yield values were calculated for each crop using recent data from FAOSTAT and CAPMAS over 2016–2020 (Eq. 6).

$$Average\;national\;crop\;yield=\frac{Annual\;domestic\;production}{Harvested\;area}$$
(6)

For CWP, we synthesized representative values from studies covering the national scale and calculated the average value for each crop (Table 3). Subsequently, average national values for yield, CWP, and T/AET were factored by the percentages of potential improvements as identified in Zankalon to estimate the three potential values of the three indicators at the national level (Eq. 7, Fig. 2: step #5).

$$\eqalign{& Potential\;indicator\;valu{e_{\;Egy}} = average{s_{\;Egy}} \times \cr & {\rm{[(}}100 + potential\;improvement{s_{\;Zankalon}}{\rm{)}}/100{\rm{]}} \cr} $$
(7)
Table 3 Values for crop water productivity of the studied crops in Egypt
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Future land demand (in ha) for each crop from 2021 to 2050 was calculated based on the average and the three potential improvements in crop yield (Eq. 8), resulting in four land demand scenarios for each crop (Land-1, 2, 3, and 4; Fig. 2: step #6).

$$\eqalign{& Future\;land\;deman{d_{Land{\rm{ - }}1,2,3,4}} = \cr & {{Future\;demand\;for\;crop} \over {average\;and\;potential\;yield\;values}} \cr} $$
(8)

Future water demand was calculated in seven scenarios. One scenario (Water-1) was calculated based on the average values of CWP and T/AET, implying the continuation of current average values in the future (Eq. 9). Three scenarios (Water-2. 3, and 4) were calculated based on three potential CWP values (Eq. 10). Three more scenarios (Water-5. 6, and 7) were based on potential values of both CWP and T/AET to account for additional water savings in each scenario and crop associated with the combined influence of improvements of CWP and T/AET (Eq. 11). This resulted in seven scenarios of water demands for each crop (Water-1 to 7; Fig. 2: steps #7 and #8). In all water scenarios, we scaled water demand values by both field irrigation and conveyance efficiencies to estimate the total irrigation water demand at High Aswan Dam (HAD) (Fig. 1a). Here, irrigation efficiency refers to the ratio of water supplied to fields to the actual water consumed by crops, whereas conveyance efficiency is the ratio of water supplied to fields to the water quantities released at HAD for irrigation needs. In Egypt, field irrigation efficiency ranges from 60 to 70% (Abdelkader et al., 2018; Ayyad et al., 2019; Elsayed et al., 2022; Nikiel & Eltahir, 2021). Since the analysis focuses on future scenarios, we chose an irrigation efficiency of 70%. Additionally, based on data from CAPMAS for the period 2016–2021, we estimated a conveyance efficiency of approximately 85%.

$$\eqalign{& Future\;water\;deman{d_{\;Water{\rm{ - }}1}} = \cr & {{Future\;demand\;for\;crop} \over {Average\;CWP\;and\;T/AET\;values}}\; \times 0.7 \times 0.85 \cr} $$
(9)
$$\eqalign{& Future\;water\;deman{d_{\;Water{\rm{ - }}2,3,4}} = \cr & {{Future\;demand\;for\;crop} \over {Potential\;CWP\;values}}\; \times 0.7 \times 0.85 \cr} $$
(10)
$$\eqalign{& Future\;land\;deman{d_{\;Water{\rm{ - }}5,\;6,\;7}} = \cr & {{Future\;water\;deman{d_{\;water - 2,3,4}}} \over {Potential\;T/AET\;values}} \cr} $$
(11)

Scenario Assumptions

In constructing future scenarios, the following key assumptions were made:

  • We based our scenarios on the population forecast of the medium fertility variant, excluding the high and low fertility variants (United Nations, 2023).

  • The existing import and export ratios of the studied crops were assumed to remain constant until 2050. Here, our modelling approach and the scenarios proposed are concerned with the potential improvements in domestic production and thus trade activities were excluded.

  • The per capita average domestic production from 2000 to 2020 was considered to remain unchanged until 2050. Changes in socioeconomic indicators, such as per capita GDP, may influence the per capita demand of some food commodities. While berseem’s demand is not tied to GDP, lower correlations were found between per capita GDP and demand for rice (R2 = 0.2) and wheat (R2 = 0.5) than for maize (R2 = 0.8) over the last decades in Egypt (Nikiel & Eltahir, 2021). Maize’s high correlation with GDP can be attributed to its use as animal feed embedded in meat products that have a strong relationship with GDP (Nikiel & Eltahir, 2021). Nevertheless, the aforementioned correlations are concerned with the total per capita supply of these crops (both imported and domestically produced) while our analysis focuses only on the per capita portion that is domestically produced, which rather reflects the country’s agricultural production capacity, thus assuming the average of 2000–2020 to remain constant through 2050.

  • Climate change and its impacts on crop water requirements, crop productivity, sea level rise, saltwater intrusion, and future Nile water availability and variability were not analyzed in this study.

These assumptions were also made in a similar assessment by Ayyad and Khalifa (2021) and should be considered when interpreting the results and their applicability to real-world conditions.

Results

Absolute Values of Performance Indicators

The seasonal and 5-year average estimates of performance indicators for each crop as derived from WaPOR over Zankalon during the period 2016–2021 are presented in Figs. 3 and 4, and 5. The T/AET values for all crops in all years were relatively high (≥ 0.79) (Fig. 3). In terms of crop yield and CWP, the 5-year average values stood at 1.5, 1.8, 6.3, and 9.2 t/ha and 0.2, 0.3, 1.05, and 1.2 kg/m3 for rice, maize, wheat, and berseem (dry), respectively (Figs. 4 and 5). It is worth noting that the yield and CWP values for rice and maize, both summer crops, are significantly lower than commonly reported values in the existing literature (Sect. Suitability of WaPOR Datasets provides further insights). The figures for actual evapotranspiration and transpiration can be found in the supplementary material (Fig. S1 and S2). Across all crops, the analysis of 5-year average maps unveiled limited spatial variations across the crop pixels in Zankalon (Figs. 3b, 4b, and 5b). Spatial CV values for all indicators were lower than 20% (Table 4). Similarly, notably low interannual variations were observed in all studied indicators, as indicated by the low values of temporal coefficients of variation (CV < 10%) (Table 4).

Fig. 3
figure 3

a) Spatial variation of seasonal transpiration fraction (T/AET) for the studied crops in Zankalon (average of 2016–2021). b) Seasonal and 5-year average estimates. Data derived from WaPOR

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Fig. 4
figure 4

a) Spatial variation of seasonal crop yield for the studied crops in Zankalon (average of 2016–2021). b) Seasonal and 5-year average estimates. Data derived from WaPOR

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Fig. 5
figure 5

a) Spatial variation of seasonal crop water productivity (CWP) for the studied crops in Zankalon (average of 2016–2021). b) Seasonal and 5-year average estimates. Data derived from WaPOR

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Table 4 Spatial and temporal coefficient of variation (CV) of the performance indicators as well as the transpiration and actual evapotranspiration in Zanaklon
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Percentages of Potential Improvements in Zankalon and Their National Extrapolation

The percentages denoting potential improvements for crop yield, T/AET, and CWP in Zankalon for the four crops are shown in Table 5. Notably, T/AET values exhibited limited potential for improvements since relatively high values were observed. The T/AET for rice and maize showed the highest percentage of improvements of 4% at percentile 95%. In contrast, the potential improvements for crop yield were substantially higher. Winter and summer crops demonstrated the capacity to enhance yield values by up to 17 and 27%, respectively, at percentile 95%. Similarly, CWP followed a comparable pattern at percentile 95%, with potential improvements of up to 10 and 14% for winter and summer crops, respectively. These percentages of potential improvements for yield, T/AET, and CWP in Zankalon were subsequently used to gauge the potential impacts of these improvements at the national scale of Egypt. Table 5 shows the average values for yield, T/AET, and CWP between 2016 and 2020 for each crop at the national level and the potential values based on the extrapolated percentages of improvements.

Table 5 Percentages of potential improvements for transpiration fraction (T/AET), crop yield, and crop water productivity (CWP) for the studied crops in Zankalon as derived from WaPOR (2016–2021) and the average and potential values for yield, T/AET, and CWP values between 2016–2020 for each crop at the national level
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Future Demand for Crops

In accordance with the UN population forecast, the Egyptian population has seen an increase from 70 million capita in 2000 to 106 million capita in 2020. This trend is projected to continue, reaching about 160 million capita by 2050, following the medium fertility variant (Fig. 6).

Fig. 6
figure 6

Relation between population growth (2020–2050), current crop production quantities (2016–2020), and estimated crop demand (2021–2050)

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The average per capita domestic production of rice, maize, wheat (2000–2020), and berseem (2004–2020) were 66, 82, 93, and 75 kg/capita/year, respectively. To sustain this production by 2050, Egypt would need to produce approximately 11, 13, 15, and 12 million tons of rice, maize, wheat, and berseem, respectively (Fig. 6). In other words, production quantities would need to increase by 128, 78, 69, and 71% above the 2016–2020’s average production quantities for rice, maize, wheat, and berseem, respectively.

Future Demand for Land and Water

To sustain domestic production of the four crops by 2050, following the average yield values in Land-1 scenario, a cultivated land area of approximately 6.4 million hectares (Mha) would be required. However, if the average yield values were to increase to reach the 80, 90, and 95% percentile values as in Land-2, Land-3, and Land-4 scenarios, the total land area needed to cultivate these four crops in 2050 would drop to 5.8, 5.5, and 5.3 Mha, respectively. In all scenarios, the total land area required are distributed among rice (18%), maize (28%), wheat (36%), and berseem (18%). For instance, the required 6.4 Mha by 2050 in Land-1 scenario would be distributed between rice (1.15 Mha), maize (1.85 Mha), wheat (2.25 Mha), and berseem (1.15 Mha). Figure 7 shows the land areas required for each scenario from 2021 to 2050, illustrating how changes in yield values can affect the overall land area required for crop cultivation.

Fig. 7
figure 7

The estimated future land area required in the developed scenarios to sustain production of rice, maize, wheat, and berseem in Egypt from 2021 through 2050. Land-1 implies continuation of average crop yields. Land-2. 3, and 4 imply higher crop yields based on three potential improvements as explained in Sect. Scenario Development

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The water quantities required from 2021 to 2050 to cultivate the four crops in each scenario, taking both the irrigation and conveyance efficiencies into account, are shown in Fig. 8. Under the average scenario for CWP and T/AET, (Water-1 scenario) a total water quantity of 68 billion cubic meters (BCM) would be needed to sustain the production of the four crops by 2050. If we transition to higher CWP levels as in Water-2, Water-3, and Water-4 scenarios, the total water demand would decrease to 65, 63, and 61 BCM, respectively. When considering the combined influence of improvements of CWP and T/AET, the water demand by 2050 would decrease to 64, 61, and 59 BCM in Water-5, Water-6, and Water-7, respectively. In all scenarios, about 23%, 34%, 28%, and 15% of the total water demand are distributed among rice, maize, wheat, and berseem, respectively. For instance, the required 68 BCM by 2050 in Water-1 scenario would be distributed between rice (15.5 BCM), maize (23.5 BCM), wheat (18.5 BCM), and berseem (10.5 BCM).

Fig. 8
figure 8

The estimated future water quantities required in the developed scenarios to sustain production of rice, maize, wheat, and berseem in Egypt from 2021 through 2050. Water-1 implies continuation of average values of crop water productivity and transpiration fraction. Water-2, 3, and 4 imply higher values of crop water productivity. Water-5, 6, and 7 imply higher values of both crop water productivity and transpiration faction as explained in Sect. Scenario Development

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Discussion

Suitability of WaPOR Datasets

To assess the reliability of the WaPOR datasets used in this study, the derived values of performance indicators over Zankalon were compared to their counterparts reported in literature. The differences in research methodologies used, lengths of growing season, spatial and temporal coverages in each study are the main drivers for disparities between findings.

Actual Evapotranspiration

Our study estimated 5-year average seasonal AET values for rice (807 mm/season), maize (660 mm/season), wheat (595 mm/season), and berseem (767 mm/season) in Zankalon. These values closely align with findings by El-Agha et al. (2011), who estimated AET of 779, 740, 634, and 746 mm/season, for rice, maize, wheat, and berseem, respectively, utilizing remote sensing data during the 2008–2009 growing season in the central Nile Delta. Another study by El-Kilani and Sugita (2017) reported average AET values (2010–2014) from an experimental station in Zankalon of 667, 369, 431, and 366 mm/season, for rice, maize, wheat, and berseem, respectively. The significant disparity between the AET values reported by El-Kilani and Sugita (2017) and our study can be attributed to the difference in the assumed length of the growing season. They assumed growing seasons of about 30 days shorter than our detected lengths. Nevertheless, this comparison implies the possible overestimation of WaPOR’s AET values over Zankalon, in line with previous conclusions of WaPOR’s tendency to overestimate AET over small irrigated fields similar to Zankalon (Blatchford et al., 2020).

Crop Yield and Water Productivity

The estimated yield and CWP values for wheat (6.3 t/ha and 1.05 kg/m3) and berseem (9.2 t/ha and 1.2 kg/m3) compared well with reported values in other studies. For instance, El-Agha et al. (2011) reported yield of 6 t/ha and CWP of 1.05 kg/m3 for wheat in the central Nile Delta during 2008–2009, which closely match our estimated values. Moreover, based on CAPMAS data during 2016–2020, the average yield values for wheat and berseem were 6.4 and 10.4 t/ha in the governorate of Sharkia where Zankalon is located. Our recorded yield value for berseem is also in close agreement with the 70 t/ha fresh yield (equivalent to 9.8 t/ha dry yield) reported by Dost et al. (2014). Additionally, (Kheir et al., 2021c) calculated CWP for wheat of about 1.5 kg/m3 in Sharkia for the period 1991–2020. Swelam et al. (2022) estimated CWP of 1.08 kg/m3 for wheat in the Delta’s old lands from 2015 to 2019. These comparisons reaffirm the validity and accuracy of WaPOR’s estimates of yield and CWP for winter crops in Zankalon.

Our estimates of yield and CWP for summer crops in Zankalon, rice (1.45 t/ha and 0.18 kg/m3) and maize (1.8 t/ha and 0.27 kg/m3), revealed a substantial underestimation compared to values reported in other studies over the Nile Delta. To elaborate, our estimated yield values significantly deviate from the average value of 8.2 and 8.5 t/ha for rice and maize, respectively, obtained in Sharkia during the period 2016–2020 (CAPMAS, 2023). Consequently, the estimated CWP values for rice and maize in Zankalon are significantly underestimated. In the Nile El-Agha et al. (2011) estimated a CWP of 1.04 kg/m3 for rice during 2008–2009 and Swelam et al. (2022) calculated CWP for maize of 0.95 kg/m3 during the period 2015–2019. The underestimation of yield values is attributed to the concurrent underestimation of Net Primary Productivity (NPP) during the summer season (Fig. 2a). WaPOR’s NPP algorithm incorporates various stress factors, including soil moisture, vapor pressure deficit, and temperature. WaPOR’s notable underestimation of NPP for summer crops in hot arid areas is driven by the temperature stress, resulting in observed crop stress through NPP that does not align with the actual conditions on the ground (FAO, 2020b). Consequently, we regard WaPOR as unsuitable for estimating absolute values of yield and CWP for summer crops in irrigated arid regions similar to Zankalon.

Performance Indicators

Egypt’s Stand on the Global Spectrum

The average yields in Egypt of 9.0, 7.2, and 6.5 t/ha for rice, maize, and wheat, respectively, from 2016 to 2020 underscore Egypt’s standing among the world’s highest crop yield producers. During the same period, the global average yield for rice, maize, and wheat were notably lower at 4.6, 5.8, and 3.5 t/ha, respectively (FAOSTAT, 2023). Furthermore, the average national CWP values for wheat (1.3 kg/m3), rice (1.1 kg/m3), and maize (0.95 kg/m3) (Table 3), fall within the global high (≥ 1.10 kg/m3), medium (0.70 to 1.25 kg/m3), and low (≤ 1.25  kg/m3) categories, respectively, as classified by Foley et al. (2020). While the Egyptian CWP for rice and wheat surpass the global average values for rice (0.95 kg/m3) and wheat (0.92 kg/m3), CWP for maize in Egypt remains significantly lower than the global average of 2.25 kg/m3 (Bastiaanssen & Steduto, 2017). While these comparisons highlight Egypt’s exceptional crop yield performance and relatively efficient water use practices in the cultivation of rice and wheat, they unravel the potential to improve CWP of maize, through optimizing maize’s water use as the driver for the low CWP values in Egypt.

The estimated T/AET values of cropland in Zankalon (0.79 ≤ T/AET ≤ 0.84) are notably positioned on the higher spectrum of reported T/AET values in literature. For instance, T/AET values stand at 0.66–0.72 over croplands globally (Wang-Erlandsson et al., 2014; Wei et al., 2017), and at 0.67 (± 0.04) for maize, 0.65 (± 0.07) for wheat, and 0.57 (± 0.02) for rice over typical croplands in North America, Europe and Asia, as reported by Jiang et al. (2020).

Performance Variation and Potential Improvements in Zankalon

The findings presented in Sect. Absolute values of performance indicators reveal the limited spatial and temporal variation observed for the studied crops and indicators in Zankalon. For instance, according to Molden and Gates (1990), spatial variation as expressed by the coefficient of variation of AET (spatial CV), also known as the uniformity indicator of water use (Karimi et al., 2019), of 0–10%, 10–25%, and > 25% imply good, fair, and poor uniformity in water use, respectively. In Zankalon, spatial CV values of AET for all crops were between 7 and 13%. Similarly, the limited interanuual variation of the studied indicators and crops in Zankalon is close to that of all cropland in Egypt (temporal CV < 10%) (Ayyad & Khalifa, 2021). This suggests a high degree of stability of performance indicators over time and across the fields.

The percentile analysis is a valuable tool for determining which crops and performance indicators should be prioritized when planning interventions. The findings in Sect. Percentages of Potential Improvements in Zankalon and their National Extrapolation serve as pivotal entry points for guiding interventions and investments to enhance crop production and conserving vital water and land resources. For instance, when examining results of T/AET, it becomes evident that there is limited potential for improvement, as the values were notably high, i.e., achieving the 95% percentile values translates to only 2–4% improvements. Therefore, focusing on enhancing T/AET may be less pressing than other potential interventions. On the contrary, striving to reach the 95% percentile values for CWP and crop yield emerges as a more compelling course of action (improvements of 9–14% for CWP and 16–27% for yield). In general, implementing interventions to improve performance indicators, i.e., achieving higher percentile values, will benefit more the summer (rice and maize) than the winter crops (wheat and berseem) at the same percentile level. These findings emphasize the potential for crop intensification in Zankalon.

What Can Egypt Do?

The projected future demand for the studied crops in this study, along with the associated water and land requirements to sustain their production, confirm conclusions made by relevant studies indicating the forthcoming challenge for Egyptian decision makers (Asseng et al., 2018; Abdelkader et al., 2018; Abdelaal & Thilmany, 2019; Ayyad & Khalifa, 2021; Nikiel & Eltahir, 2021). To further explain, the estimated total water demand of the four crops by 2050 in the most optimistic scenario of 59 BCM is equal to the annual total renewable freshwater of the country. Similarly, the optimistic 5.3 Mha of harvested area required to sustain production of the four crops by 2050 translates to 78% of the country’s total harvested area (CAPMAS, 2023). However, our findings highlight the potential for conserving 9 BCM of water and 1.1 Mha of land by implementing highly efficient scenarios. In this section, we propose a set of strategies to enable Egypt coping with the future challenge of sustaining supply of these crops with its limited natural resources. Since our findings essentially indicate the gap between the supply capacity and demand for the four crops, the following discussion focuses on possible interventions on the supply and demand sides to minimize this gap. These interventions are grouped to target (i) improving the productivity of farming systems (crop supply side and demand for resources), (ii) curbing the continuous rise in crop demand (crop demand side), and (iii) broader interventions (resources management).

Improving Productivity of Farming Systems

Our findings indicate the existing opportunity to enhance crop yield and water productivity of the four crops by achieving higher existing levels. Adopting appropriate crop management practices can enable improve the crop yield and water productivity, and thus help close the gap between the average and potential levels. This is particularly crucial for maize and wheat as the most demanding crops for water and land by 2050.

For instance, efficient deficit irrigation strategies can improve yield and water productivity of maize in Egypt (e.g., Attia et al., 2021; El-Sanatawy et al., 2021). Farming practices including weed control (Saudy & El–Metwally, 2023), seed priming (El-Sanatawy et al., 2021), partial soil drying and organic mulching (Abdelraouf & Ragab, 2018), double ridge-furrow planting technique (Abd El-Halim & Abd El-Razek, 2014), silicate foliar application and optimal irrigation intervals (Gomaa et al., 2021; Kandil et al., 2023) can also increase yield and water productivity of maize. Adjusting the sowing dates based on the specific location reportedly improves maize productivity (Abaza et al., 2023). In particular, raised beds appear to be an important strategy that could save about 20% of applied water in maize cultivation (Elmahdy et al., 2023).

The use of raised beds is also valuable in irrigated wheat fields, which has been shown to reduce water consumption and increase yield by up to 25% (Alwang et al., 2018; Rady et al., 2021; Yigezu et al., 2021a). Deficit irrigation and nitrogen applications can maximize wheat yield and water productivity (Kheir et al., 2021b, 2021c). The use of drip irrigation and compost applications positively impacts yield and water productivity of wheat in newly reclaimed sandy soils (Alshallash et al., 2023). Under stress and saline conditions, the use of salicylic acid improves wheat yield and water productivity (E. Hafez & Farig, 2019). Different irrigation strategies and frequencies are considered the most yield-effective production factor, explaining nearly 40% of the yield variability in parts of the Delta’s old lands (Abdalla et al., 2023). The use of tridimensional uniform sowing mode and the development of wheat varieties that are resistant to rusts and abiotic stress could further enhance future wheat yield (Abdelmageed et al., 2019).

Using wide furrows for rice cultivation can improve rice yield and water productivity (Mahmoud et al., 2016). Substituting some cultivars with high-yielding and water-saving ones has the potential to increase land productivity by up to 23% (Mehana et al., 2021) and save up about 20% of irrigation water (Elmoghazy & Elshenawy, 2019). For berseem, the choice of cultivars, cutting management, sowing date, fertilizer applications, and mixture with other crops can significantly improve the yield (Dost et al., 2014; Salama, 2020; Salama et al., 2020). In general, appropriate crop rotations in the Egyptian farming systems can improve crop growth and productivity (Abdalla et al., 2023; Said et al., 2016; Salama et al., 2021).

Curbing the Continuous Rise in Crop Demand

The rise in crop demand estimated in this study is mainly a function of population growth and dietary preferences. On the one hand, bending the population growth curve will help reducing the future demand for all crops and their associated water and land requirements in Egypt. We calculated future crop demands based on the medium fertility variant, projecting a population of 159 million capita by 2050. Following the milder population growth scenario of low fertility variant at 147 million capita (United Nations, 2023) would reduce the demand for crops and their associated water and land requirements by about 8%. One the other hand, promoting changes in dietary habits appear as a reasonable response to lessen the heavy reliance on the four studied crops. For example, the high demand for maize and berseem is due to their use as animal feed for meat production. Therefore, a gradual change in the dietary patterns, by transitioning from the current meat-based to a more plant-based diet, presents opportunities to reduce future demand for these crops in Egypt (Abdelkader et al., 2018; Nikiel & Eltahir, 2021; Terwisscha van Scheltinga et al., 2021). Another opportunity to conserve water and land resources is represented by the substitution of portions of major cereal crops, particularly wheat. For instance, portions of wheat flour can be substituted with less water-intensive alternatives when producing staple commodities such as the Egyptian Balady bread (Soliman et al., 2019). Furthermore, changing dietary preferences would allow for wider crop substitution scenarios towards reducing the high dependency on water-intensive crops. Examples include the substitution of wheat and rice with less water-intensive crops such as millet and sorghum, without compromising the nutritional values (Chakraborti et al., 2023; Davis et al., 2018).

Broader Interventions

There exist further opportunities to bridge the gap between resources availability and demand in Egypt. For instance, reducing food waste and losses can mitigate the high crop demand and associated resources. According to Yigezu et al. (2021b), Egypt experiences particularly high losses and wastage in wheat, accounting for around 20% of both domestically produced and imported wheat. Eliminating part of these losses would conserve water and land required to sustain domestic production.

While our results indicate relatively high values for performance indicators in Egypt, there is still room for improvement in both field and conveyance efficiencies of 70 and 85%, respectively, adopted in our analysis (Brouwer et al., 1989). Initiatives aimed at replacing traditional irrigation methods with modern systems and rehabilitation of irrigation canals to improve the overall system efficiency should continue. Nevertheless, risks of increased soil and groundwater salinity and reduced groundwater recharge should be considered. Although the Nile will continue to serve as Egypt’s primary source of freshwater, the increasing water demand necessitates the exploration of non-conventional water resources. Domestically, Egypt should intensify its efforts in water reuse, wastewater treatment, and desalination. Exploiting non-renewable groundwater resources should be approached cautiously to avoid further groundwater depletion and salinization (El-Agha et al., 2023).

Except for berseem, Egypt is currently a net importer of the studied cereal crops (FAOSTAT, 2023). Given the expected continuation of cereal imports, Egypt should critically assess its trade activities, evaluating not only the feasibility, efficiency, and profitability of producing its major cereals domestically but also scrutinizing existing trade partnerships. For example, berseem and at least 20% of maize domestic productions are used as animal feed in Egypt (FAOSTAT, 2023), and reducing the domestic production of these crops can conserve water and land resources. Instead of allocating about 14 BCM of water and 1.3 Mha of harvested land to sustain berseem and maize production used for meat production by 2050 as estimated herein, Egypt could import part of its meat demand from neighboring countries such as Sudan and Ethiopia. This approach not only can conserve water resources and free up fertile land but also presents an opportunity to foster mutually-beneficial ties with Nile riparian nations (Ayyad & Khalifa, 2021; Nikiel & Eltahir, 2021). Collaborating with the Nile countries should further aim at enhancing the low crop yield and water productivity of cereal crops coupled with transboundary trade (Ayyad & Khalifa, 2021; Siderius et al., 2016; Zeitoun et al., 2010), and minimizing water losses across the entire basin that can consequently increase blue water availability for irrigation downstream the Nile.

Methodological Learnings

One of the novel contribution of this study is the developed methodological approach, which is also beneficial to other regions with similar conditions to Egypt. We demonstrated how integrating multiple types of open-access datasets in data-scare regions, including remote sensing and crop statistics with different spatial and temporal coverages, can help quantify potential improvements in water savings and crop yields and, subsequently, provide future outlook of water and land demand for crop production. Primary datasets required to carry out the analysis include historical and forecasted population time series, crop statistics, crop parameters, and multiple remote sensing datasets. Population time series and national crop statistics required to assess production and consumption patterns as well as to construct future scenarios are available for almost all countries and territories in the globe (FAOSTAT, 2023; United Nations, 2023). Ideally, crop parameters should be specific to the location and varieties under study. If exact values for parameters are not available in the study region, the use of average values from other regions with similarities to the study region may be justified. A plethora of remote sensing products to estimate crop yield and water productivity are available, with varying spatial and temporal resolutions, time and geographical coverages, and performance quality (Blatchford et al., 2019). However, the minimum requirement to conduct such crop-specific exercise is the availability of a crop type layer that distinguishes between crop types and seasons. This layer is often unavailable since crop type information has been traditionally obtained from expensive and time-demanding field surveys to conduct. Even when a crop layer is available, it is likely to be limited to space and time, hindering its use in multi-season assessments. The WaPOR’s crop type layer used herein is also available for a number of irrigated areas in other countries, e.g., Sudan, Lebanon, Ethiopia, Mali, Rwanda, Senegal, and Sri Lanka, covering the period from 2009 to present. An alternative to the ready-to-use crop type layers by WaPOR or similar initiatives, researchers can use remote sensing techniques to self-produce crop type maps (Joshi et al., 2016; Kluger et al., 2021; Orynbaikyzy et al., 2019). The choice of specific remote sensing products required to conduct such exercise depends on the accessibility to the product, the purpose of the study, the spatial and temporal coverages, and the performance quality of the product over the specific study area. Should the product produce systematic over- or underestimates of certain parameters, we recommend adopting our approach of relying on the relative than the absolute values when conducting the analysis, i.e., estimating potential improvements in percentage as the ratio of the higher to average values in the area under investigation.

Limitations and Future Research

We attempted to collect representative values of crop parameters used in the analysis from literature (Table 2), of which some were not available from Egypt and were thus collected from other arid regions. However, crop parameters can vary between locations and varieties, and it is recommended to use locally calibrated values when utilizing the methodological approach of this study in future research and application. Although we deemed Zankalon as a suitable and representative case to detect performance variation and potential improvements, it is important to acknowledge that this assumption may not fully align with the spatio-temporal heterogeneities on the ground across the country, and there could be variations beyond what our analysis captured. Our analysis focused on four major crops, however, it would be helpful to expand the analysis to include as many crops as possible. To do so, there is a need for operational and temporally dynamic crop type maps covering partly or fully the cropland extent. Although not included in our analysis, climate change will impact the demand for resources and supply capacity in Egypt. Future assessments may include climate change impacts on crop water requirements, crop productivity, sea level rise, saltwater intrusion, and future Nile water availability and variability. Future assessments may also investigate scenario of crop substitution, dietary change, and adjusting trade portfolio.

Conclusion

In Egypt, approximately half of annually harvested areas and renewable freshwater are allocated for cultivating rice, maize, wheat, and berseem clover. Given the limited resource availability in the country, it is imperative to understand the potential improvements in the production of these crops and associated water and land requirements. We used the case study of Zankalon to explore the potential improvements of cultivating these major crops in Egypt. Given the scarcity of ground data in Egypt, our methodology relied on high-resolution datasets of WaPOR to benchmark performance indicators and quantify potential improvements in Zankalon, namely crop yield, water productivity, and transpiration fraction. Subsequently we used the potential improvements and national statistics to develop scenarios of future demand for water and land to sustain production of these crops from 2021 to 2050 in Egypt.

WaPOR demonstrated reasonable quality in estimating performance indicators for winter crops in Zankalon. However, a significant underestimation of yield and water productivity for summer crops was observed. Thus, we do not recommend relying on WaPOR for estimating absolute values these indicators for summer crops in irrigated arid regions similar to Zankalon.

Our findings revealed the anticipated challenge for Egypt to secure sufficient resources, particularly water, to sustain production of the four crops by 2050. Maize and wheat would be the most demanding crops for water and land resources, followed by rice and berseem. Although the findings suggest a relatively good production performance of these crops, they also show that there is room for improvement. In general, the implementation of interventions to improve production efficiency would result in more significant production improvements for rice and maize than for wheat and berseem.

We discussed potential interventions to improve productivity of these crops through appropriate crop management practices. The high demand for crops estimated herein is mainly driven by the rapid population growth and the high reliance on specific crops. Thus, it is essential to curb the continuous rise in crop demand, either by bending the population growth curve or by promoting change in dietary patterns. Further interventions such as improving field and conveyance efficiencies, crop substitution, reduction of food losses, intensifying use of non-conventional water resources, and revisiting water allocation and trade strategies, can help Egypt bridging the gap between its food demand and supply capacity.