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Determining origins of satellite breakup events in LEO region

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Abstract

Currently, a surge in the number of spacecraft and fragments is observed, leading to more frequent breakup events in low Earth orbits (LEOs). The causes of these events are being identified, and specific triggers, such as collisions or explosions, are being examined for their importance to space traffic management. Backward propagation methods were employed to trace the origins of these types of breakup events. Simulations were conducted using the NASA standard breakup model, and satellite Hitomi’s breakup was analyzed. Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergences, Euclidean 2-norms, and Jensen-Shannon (JS) divergences were computed to deduce potential types of breakups and the associated fragmentation masses. In the simulated case, a discrepancy of 22.12 s between the estimated and actual time was noted. Additionally, the breakup of the Hitomi satellite was estimated to have occurred around UTC 1:49:26.4 on March 26, 2016. This contrasts with the epoch provided by the Joint Space Operation Center, which was estimated to be at 1:42 UTC ± 11 min. From the findings, it was suggested that the techniques introduced in the study can be effectively used to trace the origins of short-term breakup events and to deduce the types of collisions and fragmentation masses under certain conditions.

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Acknowledgements

The authors are grateful to the National Key R&D Program of China (Grant No. 2022ZD0117301) for funding this study.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Astronautic Dynamics, Xi’an, 710043, China

    Yongjie Liu, Yu Jiang, Hengnian Li, Zongbo Huyan & Hongchao Wang

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  1. Yongjie Liu
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  2. Yu Jiang
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  3. Hengnian Li
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  4. Zongbo Huyan
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  5. Hongchao Wang
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Correspondence to Yu Jiang.

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Declaration of competing interest

The authors have no competing interests to declare that are relevant to the content of this article. The author Hengnian Li is the Associate Editor of this journal and the author Yu Jiang is the Secretariat of this journal.

Yongjie Liu is an engineer of State Key Laboratory of Astronautic Dynamics, Xi’an Satellite Control Center, China. He received his master degree from the School of Mathematical Sciences, Peking University, China. His main interests are orbital mechanics and aerospace engineering. E-mail: liuyongjie_xian@163.com

Yu Jiang is a researcher of State Key Laboratory of Astronautic Dynamics, Xi’an Satellite Control Center. He received his bachelor degree from Peking University, China, and he holds his master degree, doctorate, and postdoctoral fellow of Tsinghua University, China. His main research interests include spacecraft dynamics and control, aerospace technology, space debris, dust ejecta, mega constellations, etc. He discovered the conserved quantity theorem for all equilibrium points of irregular bodies in celestial mechanics, and solved several key technical problems in Chinese aerospace engineering applications. He has published more than 60 papers and formulated 5 national standards. He won the 2021 China Space Foundation Space Contribution Award. Furthermore, in 2022, he was commended by the Central Ministries and Commissions for outstanding professional and technical talents, and he served as the leader of a top innovation team in the field of aerospace. E-mail: jiangyu_xian_china@163.com

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Liu, Y., Jiang, Y., Li, H. et al. Determining origins of satellite breakup events in LEO region. Astrodyn 7, 465–476 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s42064-023-0182-4

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s42064-023-0182-4

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