Abstract
Increasing urbanization in Kigali is hampered by inadequate urban planning, posing significant problems such as increased vulnerability to natural disasters and population displacement. Floods are among the recurrent events in different districts of Kigali damaging standing crops and hindering human livelihoods. Addressing these challenges requires implementing research-based strategies and integrating policies for effective mitigation. This study aims to analyze potentially suitable sites for resettling flood-vulnerable communities in the Nyarugenge district, which is among the highly vulnerable areas of Kigali city. The integration of an Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP)-based Geographic Information System (GIS) and multicriteria decision analysis has been used to analyze different indicators of flood risk and resettlement suitability, such as elevation, slope, rainfall, land use land cover (LULC), soil texture, proximity to rivers, proximity to roads, population density, proximity to education facilities and proximity to the health center to obtain a suitability map. The result of the study showed that over 50% of the study area is high to very high suitable for resettlement, a minimal area of 22.5 km2 (17.35%) falls into moderate suitable while the remaining 23.82% having an area of 30.9 km2 is not suitable for human resettlement which proposing the relocation of 7677 existing settlements in this area and recommends flood risk mitigation strategies for 16.19 km2 (12.22%) of the flood-prone area. Subsequently, the final results were validated through the Area Under Curve (AUC) with 15 randomly selected past flood location points. The results of this study will be essential for planning and implementing any resettlement program, especially for the rest of Rwanda. Therefore, the environmental suitability and sustainability of the area in terms of socio-economic aspects have to be thoroughly analyzed.
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Data Availability
The data and materials that support the findings of this study will be made available by the corresponding author (Dr. Lanhai Li) upon reasonable request.
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Acknowledgements
The authors address their sincere gratitude to the Alliance of International Science Organization (ANSO) under the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), for the scholarship award to conduct the Master studies (MSc.) of which this study is a part.
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The study was funded and supported by the key program for international cooperation of the Bureau of International Cooperation, Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant Number:151542KYSB20200018), and the Sino-Africa Joint Research Center of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant Number: SAJC202107).
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Izere, D., Li, L., Mind’je, R. et al. Suitability Analysis for Resettlement Potential Sites of Flood Vulnerable Community in Kigali city, Rwanda. Earth Syst Environ 8, 521–544 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-024-00387-z
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-024-00387-z