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Summertime Microscale Assessment and Prediction of Urban Thermal Comfort Zone Using Remote-Sensing Techniques for Kuwait

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Abstract

Urbanization significantly accelerates the replacement of natural land-use and land-cover (LULC) classes, which can raise the temperature and diminish thermal comfort zone (TCZ), potentially negatively affecting the environment and human health. This study assesses and predicts the impacts of LULC change on directional shrinkage of the TCZ in Kuwait, using Landsat images and cellular automata (CA) and artificial neural networks (ANN) algorithms from 1991 to 2031. The analysis revealed a rapid urban expansion (40%) in south-east (SE), north-east (NE), and north-west (NW) directions and shrinkage of TCZ (25% area with a very uncomfortable thermal condition) in N–NW and SW directions, from 1991 to 2021. The predicted scenario showed an increase in urban areas from 44% (2021) to 47% (2026) and 52% (2031). In contrast, very uncomfortable TCZ (35% in 2026 and 40% in 2031) was found concentrated around urban areas and bare land toward N–NE and N–NW directions. The study proposes effective and sustainable strategies to mitigate the shrinkage of TCZ, including zero-soil policies, planned landscape design, artificial water bodies, and rooftop gardens. This study will be an essential tool for promoting sustainable development in Kuwait by helping urban planners and policymakers realize the impacts of urbanization and land-use change on the TCZ.

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Availability of Data and Materials

The datasets generated during and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank the US Geological Survey for assisting this research with datasets. The authors would also like to thank the Dynamic Institute of Geospatial Observation Network—DIGON (http://digonresearch.org/) research and consultancy firm experts for proofreading the manuscript and providing technical support in this research.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geography, Kuwait University, Kuwait City, Kuwait

    Ahmad E. AlDousari

  2. Department of Geography and the Environment, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, 78712, USA

    Abdulla - Al Kafy

  3. Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET), Dhaka, Bangladesh

    Milan Saha

  4. School of Environmental Science and Management, Independent University of Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh

    Milan Saha

  5. Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Khulna University of Engineering and Technology, Khulna, Bangladesh

    Md. Abdul Fattah & Arpita Bakshi

  6. Department of Geography and Environment, Faculty of Human Sciences, Sultan Idris Education University, 35900, Tanjung Malim, Malaysia

    Zullyadini A. Rahaman

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  1. Ahmad E. AlDousari
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  2. Abdulla - Al Kafy
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  3. Milan Saha
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  4. Md. Abdul Fattah
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Contributions

AEAD and A-AK: conceptualization, project administration, data collection, formal analysis, data curation, supervision, resources, software, methodology, investigation, writing-original draft, validation, and writing—review and editing. MS and MdAF: data collection, formal analysis, visualization, validation, software, resources, methodology, formal analysis, data curation, and writing—review and editing. AB: writing—review and editing, and project administration. ZAR: methodology, investigation, data curation, conceptualization, and writing—review and editing.

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Correspondence to Ahmad E. AlDousari.

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AlDousari, A.E., Kafy, A ., Saha, M. et al. Summertime Microscale Assessment and Prediction of Urban Thermal Comfort Zone Using Remote-Sensing Techniques for Kuwait. Earth Syst Environ 7, 435–456 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-023-00340-6

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