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Simulation of the future warming over the Egyptian Mediterranean coast

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Abstract

Over the past few decades, increasing frequencies and intensities of extreme weather events have been noted worldwide, which are a result of climate change. There is an increasing need to understand surface air temperature variabilities, as these are required to devise adaptation and mitigation plans for the Egyptian Mediterranean coast (EMC). The current paper sheds light on current and future trends in the surface air temperature (T2m) by using modeling techniques (the regional climate model RegCM-SVN). Various atmospheric parameters—air temperature, geopotential height, relative humidity, and zonal/meridional wind components—are used to drive the RegCM-SVN model for dynamical downscaling simulation of the period from 2006 to 2060 under the RCP2.6 (2.6 W/m2) and RCP8.5 (> 8.5 W/m2) scenarios. The results showed that the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios over the EMC lead to significant warming, ranging from + 0.35 to + 0.38 °C, suggesting a significant acceleration of T2m warming trends over the next decades. The RegCM-SVN model and ERA5 (the fifth-generation ECMWF reanalysis for the global climate and weather data) give rather similar results when simulating T2m and show a strong correlation of greater than 90% over the oceanic area and greater than 0.85% over the land area (the Sinai Peninsula and the Gulf of Aqaba) for the controlled period (2006–2020). The validation processes indicated that the RegCM-SVN model successfully simulated the increasing surface air temperature over the EMC, which is considered a major challenge posed by climate change. This challenge is expected to have a series of negative effects across all the sectors of human activities in Egypt (the tourism, agriculture, health, and marine sectors). Thus, understanding the dynamics of T2m over Egypt is a critical issue in coping with climate change. In the same context, determining the long-term variability of surface air temperature is essential for devising adaptation and mitigation plans over such hotspot marine areas.

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Data availability

The data supporting the current study’s conclusions are available upon request from the corresponding author.

Notes

  1. B1, A1B, and A2 are different scenarios used in climate modeling to assess future greenhouse-gas emissions and their impacts. These scenarios are part of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Each scenario represents a different set of assumptions about future socioeconomic and technological developments. The B1 scenario represents a world with rapid economic growth, a global population that peaks around 2050 and then declines, and a shift towards more sustainable and environmentally friendly practices. It is often associated with lower greenhouse gas emissions. The A1B scenario assumes a balanced mix of energy sources, with no significant preference for any one technology. It represents a future where economic growth continues at a moderate pace and population growth is more evenly distributed across regions. The A2 scenario envisions a future where economic growth is more fragmented and regionalized, with a focus on local interests rather than global cooperation. It often results in higher greenhouse-gas emissions compared to the other scenarios.

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Acknowledgements

I (author N.E.) would like to express my deepest gratitude to those who have contributed to the completion of this research paper. Their support and guidance have been invaluable throughout the entire process. First and foremost, I extend my sincere appreciation to Prof. Dr Mohamed Shaltout, Dr. Riccardo Privitera, and Dr. Mohamed Elbessa (my supervisors) for their unwavering support, insightful feedback, and dedicated mentorship. Their expertise and encouragement have played a pivotal role in shaping the direction of this research. Special thanks go to my mother, father, sister, and brother for their love and support. I also thank my husband for his continuous support. I extend my appreciation to my colleagues and peers for their collaborative spirit and engaging discussions. The exchange of ideas has been instrumental in refining the focus and methodology of this work. The author would like to thanks to the project [Downscaling atmospheric components over Egypt under different future climate change scenarios (2065-2100)] that are funded from Academy of Scientific Research and Technology (ASRT)/Egypt for providing supercomputer for the current research analyses.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Oceanography Department, Faculty of Science, Alexandria University, Alexandria, 21526, Egypt

    Mohamed Shaltout, Nada Elkhouly & Mohamed Elbessa

  2. College of Maritime Transport and Technology, Arab Academy for Science, Technology and Maritime Transport, Alexandria, 1209, Egypt

    Mohamed Elbessa

  3. Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile e Architettura, Università di Catania, Catania, Italy

    Riccardo Privitera

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  1. Mohamed Shaltout
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Correspondence to Nada Elkhouly.

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Shaltout, M., Elkhouly, N., Privitera, R. et al. Simulation of the future warming over the Egyptian Mediterranean coast. Euro-Mediterr J Environ Integr (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s41207-024-00494-3

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